How the Iran war reshaped OPEC+ oil output: Saudi Arabia, Iraq and gulf supply in focus

The war has sharply disrupted oil production across the Gulf, triggering steep output declines in Saudi Arabia and Iraq before a partial recovery, while producers outside the region have continued pumping. The uneven recovery highlights how conflict, export-route disruptions and infrastructure risks can reshape global crude supply even when production begins to normalise.

Monthly production data shared in the accompanying analysis show that combined OPEC+ crude output, excluding the United Arab Emirates (UAE), fell from around 39.5 million barrels per day (b/d) to 31 million b/d before recovering to approximately 35 million b/d. The figures point to a substantial supply shock, although the extent to which lost production translates into lower global supply depends on exports, inventories and alternative sources.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq bear the brunt

Saudi Arabia's crude production reportedly declined from around 10.2 million b/d to 6.6 million b/d during the disruption before recovering to approximately 8 million b/d. The fall underscores the exposure of Gulf producers to interruptions affecting export infrastructure and shipping routes.

Iraq experienced an even sharper proportional decline. Its output dropped from around 4.3 million b/d to 1.4 million b/d before rebounding to approximately 3.9 million b/d, according to the supplied figures.

The scale of these declines illustrates how geopolitical disruptions can affect producers differently depending on their export infrastructure, storage capacity and ability to redirect shipments. A recovery in production, however, does not necessarily mean that exports have returned to normal. Crude may remain stranded if ports, pipelines or shipping routes are unavailable.

The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important in this context because it is a major route for oil shipments from the Gulf. Any threat to safe passage can disrupt deliveries, raise shipping and insurance costs, and increase uncertainty for refiners and importing countries.

Iran faces a different supply shock

Iran's production trend has moved in the opposite direction, according to the accompanying analysis. Output reportedly declined from around 3.3 million b/d to 1.9 million b/d following renewed US restrictions described as a naval blockade.

The reported decline highlights the impact that sanctions and restrictions on maritime trade can have on oil production and exports. However, production losses and export losses are not interchangeable: Iran can continue producing crude even when its ability to ship or sell that oil is constrained.

The timing and nature of the reported blockade, as well as the production figures, require independent verification before publication.

Producers outside the Gulf gain relative importance

While Gulf producers experienced sharp declines, some producers outside the region maintained output or recorded increases. Venezuela's production reportedly climbed to around 1.15 million b/d, while Kazakhstan continued producing above its stated OPEC+ quota. Russia's output, by contrast, was reported at approximately 8.6 million b/d and trending lower amid attacks on oil infrastructure.

These divergent trends suggest that disruptions can change the relative importance of suppliers in the global market. Yet higher output elsewhere cannot automatically replace lost Gulf supplies. Export capacity, crude quality, sanctions, infrastructure constraints and available shipping routes determine how much additional oil can reach buyers.

The UAE also needs separate treatment in any comparison because it is no longer an OPEC member, according to the supplied analysis. Its reported production recovery from around 2 million b/d to 3.9 million b/d should therefore not be added to an OPEC+ total without clearly defining the group and the period being measured.

Why the recovery remains uncertain

The partial rebound in Gulf production offers some relief, but it does not eliminate the risk of renewed supply disruptions. The recovery depends on the security of export routes, the condition of energy infrastructure and producers' ability to sustain output.

For oil-importing economies such as India, renewed disruption could translate into higher crude prices, increased freight and insurance costs, and pressure on the import bill and inflation. Conversely, a durable recovery in production and shipping could ease supply concerns.

The broader lesson is that oil-market security depends on more than how much crude producers extract. Production, export capacity and safe access to shipping routes must all function together. Until those conditions are secure, the recovery in OPEC+ supply remains vulnerable to the next geopolitical shock.