Oil exports via Hormuz rebound to 80% of pre-war levels but Iran is losing its lifeline. Here's how

The Strait of Hormuz is reopening for oil — but the recovery is exposing a sharp divide between Iran and its Gulf rivals. 

Persian Gulf crude exports have surged back above 14 million barrels per day (mbd), recovering to around 80% of pre-war levels, even as Iranian oil shipments have effectively ground to a halt under the ongoing US naval blockade.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf producers are rebuilding export routes, using pipelines, protected shipping corridors and tanker transfers to keep crude moving to global markets. 

Gulf oil flows rebound 

According to financial commentary publication The Kobeissi Letter, Persian Gulf crude oil exports surpassed 14 mbd last week for the first time since the Iran war began on February 28. That represents an increase of more than 210% from the low of around 4.5 mbd recorded in March. 

The four-week rolling average has also climbed to around 14 mbd, its highest level in six months. 

The recovery is visible in tanker-tracking data and the latest export chart. After plunging sharply following the disruption to Hormuz, crude flows have steadily climbed back towards their pre-war range. 

Kobeissi said the rebound has been helped by the US military securing parts of the Strait and establishing a two-way shipping corridor along the coast of Oman, allowing oil convoys to resume. 

But the recovery does not mean the oil trade has returned to normal. 

Pipelines are also carrying a larger share of Gulf crude. Tankers are switching vessels offshore. Shuttle operations are moving cargo through protected corridors. And the US military is playing a greater role in securing the passage. 

But these alternatives are not immune to disruption. 

Saudi Arabia recently shut its East-West pipeline after it was damaged in a drone strike launched from Iraq. Loadings from the Red Sea port of Yanbu have since increased, indicating that the pipeline is recovering.

Hormuz is being bypassed 

Kpler data points to a fundamental restructuring of Gulf oil logistics. 

Crude exports from Gulf countries, excluding Iran, had returned to pre-war levels by September, reaching at least 16.5 mbd. Around 40% of Gulf crude is now leaving the region without crossing the Strait of Hormuz, compared with just 17% before the war. 

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased their reliance on pipelines to bypass the chokepoint and move crude directly towards alternative export terminals. 

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the UAE's pipeline network have therefore become increasingly important to global oil supplies. 

The shift also shows up in tanker movements. More than 70% of crude that crossed Hormuz in August reportedly changed tankers offshore, mainly around the UAE or Oman. 

Under this system, shuttle tankers carry crude through the Strait to the Gulf of Oman, where the cargo is transferred to another tanker for onward delivery, particularly to Asian markets. 

The US military's presence around the corridor is helping protect this increasingly complex shipping system. 

Iran faces a different reality 

While Gulf producers have found ways to restore exports, Iran's oil lifeline is moving in the opposite direction. 

Kpler's tanker-tracking data indicates that fresh Iranian crude exports have effectively collapsed under the ongoing US naval blockade. This is significant because oil exports remain a crucial source of revenue for Tehran. 

The contrast is stark: Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Arab producers have restored — and in some recent weekly measurements exceeded — pre-war export levels, while Iran has struggled to maintain access to international markets. 

For Tehran, the disruption is becoming a direct economic constraint. 

Fuel markets remain under pressure 

The recovery in crude exports has also not translated into a full recovery in refined fuels. 

Kobeissi estimates that shipments of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel remain at only around 50% of pre-war levels. 

Refined products are more expensive and complicated to transport than crude, while several Gulf refineries damaged during the early stages of the conflict have yet to fully restore operations. 

That imbalance is contributing to continued pressure on global fuel markets. 

The United States is already facing exceptionally high diesel prices, while disruptions to West Asia supplies and attacks on Russian refining infrastructure in Ukraine are tightening refined-fuel availability. 

The situation has also triggered political pressure in Washington, with US President Donald Trump considering restrictions on diesel exports as American consumers and lawmakers confront higher fuel prices.