Young Americans aged 18-21 traded $5.4 billion on Kalshi this year: Report
Sports and parlays, which are all-or-nothing combinations of bets, make up about 80% of Kalshi's total trading volume.
- Aug 28, 2026,
- Updated Aug 28, 2026 4:48 PM IST
Young Americans aged 18 to 21 have traded an estimated $5.4 billion (₹5.15 lakh crore) on prediction market Kalshi so far this year, according to a CNN analysis.
The findings have sparked concerns because people in this age group are generally not allowed to gamble at most casinos and sportsbooks in the US.
Prediction markets have become increasingly popular this year. Users can put money on the outcome of sports matches, elections, cultural events and even weather conditions.
These platforms are available to people aged 18 and above because they are regulated as financial markets at the federal level. This is different from most state-regulated casinos and sportsbooks, where the minimum age is 21.
Lawmakers, consumer groups and addiction experts are worried that prediction markets could become an easy way for young adults to get involved in gambling-like activities. They have also raised concerns about the possible impact on their finances and mental health.
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Sports drive most of the trading
Sports and parlays, which are all-or-nothing combinations of bets, make up about 80% of Kalshi's total trading volume.
The analysis found that users aged 18 to 21 have traded an estimated $3.9 billion (₹3.72 lakh crore) in these categories this year. The amount is expected to increase further.
Jonathan Michaels, who runs a gaming industry consulting firm, said the World Cup has kept trading activity high. “Normally you’d have a big summer lull, but the World Cup changed that completely,” he said.
Michaels also expects prediction markets to see record activity when the football season begins in the fall. He said this will “certainly trickle down into college-age students.”
CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events.
Kalshi trading tops $171 billion
Kalshi has recorded more than $171 billion (₹16.32 lakh crore) in total trading volume so far this year, as of Thursday, according to publicly available data from Paradigm, a major investor in the company.
A Kalshi spokesperson said users aged 18 to 21 currently account for 3.14% of the platform's total trading volume.
The spokesperson declined to provide exact figures on how much users in this age group have spent or traded and declined to comment further.
Kalshi has previously said it has safeguards for younger users, including deposit limits and warnings for users who show signs of risky behaviour.
The company has also donated $2 million (₹19.1 crore) to the National Council for Problem Gambling to help tackle unhealthy trading and addiction.
Financial analysts estimated earlier this year that Kalshi controlled about 90% of the US prediction market.
Polymarket, the second-largest US prediction market, declined to comment and has not publicly released trading or spending figures for users aged 18 to 21.
Legal battle over prediction markets
Prediction markets are also facing a legal challenge in the US.
With the backing of the Trump administration, these platforms currently operate as federally regulated financial exchanges. They are not subject to state gambling laws or taxes and are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
This arrangement is being challenged in court with support from 44 state attorneys general, dozens of Indian tribes and the casino industry.
The American Gaming Association (AGA), a casino industry lobbying group, has highlighted Kalshi's 18-21 trading figures as part of its campaign against sports betting on prediction platforms, which it says function like unlicensed sportsbooks.
AGA president Bill Miller said, “Most parents and grandparents don’t realize that the ‘prediction markets’ are offering a backdoor into sports-betting in jurisdictions where the legal betting age is 21.” He added, “This means their freshman son or daughter is prohibited from entering legal sportsbooks, but now they can just pull out their phone and use Kalshi to bet on football.”
Supporters of prediction markets argue that these platforms are financial markets rather than traditional gambling platforms. They also point out that 18-year-olds can legally trade in the stock market and invest in other CFTC-regulated financial products that carry even greater risks.
Must Read: 179-year wait: Green Card backlog traps nearly 1 million Indians, making up 79% of total queue
Some companies choose a higher age limit
Not all prediction-market companies allow users aged 18 to 20.
Fanatics, the merchandising giant, launched a prediction platform last year with a 21+ age requirement. A company spokesperson had previously said, “We believe 21+ is the right age for any type of real-money activities.”
The NCAA, NFL, NBA, PGA Tour and other sports leagues later urged the CFTC to raise the minimum trading age to 21.
However, the agency rejected those requests and is finalising federal rules that will keep the minimum age at 18.
Newer prediction-market company Novig has taken a different approach.
The company received CFTC approval in June and launched its platform this month with a 21+ policy. It has already recorded $450 million (₹4,296 crore) in trades and signed a partnership deal with the New York Mets.
Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky said the company took the concerns raised by sports leagues seriously. “We listened to the concerns of the NCAA and other professional sports leagues,” he said. “We want to be a good partner to these leagues and be a good steward in the prediction space.”
Fortinsky said the leagues and the public have “valid concerns” that college-age adults are “particularly susceptible to irresponsible trading behavior.” He added, “We don’t want that to be a component of our business.”
Young Americans aged 18 to 21 have traded an estimated $5.4 billion (₹5.15 lakh crore) on prediction market Kalshi so far this year, according to a CNN analysis.
The findings have sparked concerns because people in this age group are generally not allowed to gamble at most casinos and sportsbooks in the US.
Prediction markets have become increasingly popular this year. Users can put money on the outcome of sports matches, elections, cultural events and even weather conditions.
These platforms are available to people aged 18 and above because they are regulated as financial markets at the federal level. This is different from most state-regulated casinos and sportsbooks, where the minimum age is 21.
Lawmakers, consumer groups and addiction experts are worried that prediction markets could become an easy way for young adults to get involved in gambling-like activities. They have also raised concerns about the possible impact on their finances and mental health.
Don't Miss: Nepal faces years-long rebuild and $5 billion bill after devastating flash floods, says billionaire
Sports drive most of the trading
Sports and parlays, which are all-or-nothing combinations of bets, make up about 80% of Kalshi's total trading volume.
The analysis found that users aged 18 to 21 have traded an estimated $3.9 billion (₹3.72 lakh crore) in these categories this year. The amount is expected to increase further.
Jonathan Michaels, who runs a gaming industry consulting firm, said the World Cup has kept trading activity high. “Normally you’d have a big summer lull, but the World Cup changed that completely,” he said.
Michaels also expects prediction markets to see record activity when the football season begins in the fall. He said this will “certainly trickle down into college-age students.”
CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events.
Kalshi trading tops $171 billion
Kalshi has recorded more than $171 billion (₹16.32 lakh crore) in total trading volume so far this year, as of Thursday, according to publicly available data from Paradigm, a major investor in the company.
A Kalshi spokesperson said users aged 18 to 21 currently account for 3.14% of the platform's total trading volume.
The spokesperson declined to provide exact figures on how much users in this age group have spent or traded and declined to comment further.
Kalshi has previously said it has safeguards for younger users, including deposit limits and warnings for users who show signs of risky behaviour.
The company has also donated $2 million (₹19.1 crore) to the National Council for Problem Gambling to help tackle unhealthy trading and addiction.
Financial analysts estimated earlier this year that Kalshi controlled about 90% of the US prediction market.
Polymarket, the second-largest US prediction market, declined to comment and has not publicly released trading or spending figures for users aged 18 to 21.
Legal battle over prediction markets
Prediction markets are also facing a legal challenge in the US.
With the backing of the Trump administration, these platforms currently operate as federally regulated financial exchanges. They are not subject to state gambling laws or taxes and are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
This arrangement is being challenged in court with support from 44 state attorneys general, dozens of Indian tribes and the casino industry.
The American Gaming Association (AGA), a casino industry lobbying group, has highlighted Kalshi's 18-21 trading figures as part of its campaign against sports betting on prediction platforms, which it says function like unlicensed sportsbooks.
AGA president Bill Miller said, “Most parents and grandparents don’t realize that the ‘prediction markets’ are offering a backdoor into sports-betting in jurisdictions where the legal betting age is 21.” He added, “This means their freshman son or daughter is prohibited from entering legal sportsbooks, but now they can just pull out their phone and use Kalshi to bet on football.”
Supporters of prediction markets argue that these platforms are financial markets rather than traditional gambling platforms. They also point out that 18-year-olds can legally trade in the stock market and invest in other CFTC-regulated financial products that carry even greater risks.
Must Read: 179-year wait: Green Card backlog traps nearly 1 million Indians, making up 79% of total queue
Some companies choose a higher age limit
Not all prediction-market companies allow users aged 18 to 20.
Fanatics, the merchandising giant, launched a prediction platform last year with a 21+ age requirement. A company spokesperson had previously said, “We believe 21+ is the right age for any type of real-money activities.”
The NCAA, NFL, NBA, PGA Tour and other sports leagues later urged the CFTC to raise the minimum trading age to 21.
However, the agency rejected those requests and is finalising federal rules that will keep the minimum age at 18.
Newer prediction-market company Novig has taken a different approach.
The company received CFTC approval in June and launched its platform this month with a 21+ policy. It has already recorded $450 million (₹4,296 crore) in trades and signed a partnership deal with the New York Mets.
Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky said the company took the concerns raised by sports leagues seriously. “We listened to the concerns of the NCAA and other professional sports leagues,” he said. “We want to be a good partner to these leagues and be a good steward in the prediction space.”
Fortinsky said the leagues and the public have “valid concerns” that college-age adults are “particularly susceptible to irresponsible trading behavior.” He added, “We don’t want that to be a component of our business.”