' 'MY' is a self-defeating equation': Yashwant Deshmukh's warning for RJD ahead of Bihar polls
Deshmukh said that the RJD-Congress combine cannot win Bihar by banking solely on the Muslim-Yadav combine or the 'MY' combination.
- Sep 25, 2025,
- Updated Sep 25, 2025 5:40 PM IST
Yashwant Deshmukh, psephologist and the founder of CVoter Foundation, on Thursday said that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) cannot win Bihar by banking solely on the Muslim-Yadav combine or the 'MY' combination.
Calling the combine a "self-defeating equation", Deshmukh argued that the incumbent Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar can win Bihar poll after poll because he has his pulse on a voter base that swings the election in favour of the alliance of which the veteran is a part.
"It's a self-defeating equation. When was the last time Lalu ji won in Bihar? Do you remember that? The only person who has been winning Bihar is Nitish Kumar. Without Nitish Kumar, nobody is able to win. Why? Because he holds to a voter base which takes the pendulum this way or that way. So, MY on its own is a self-defeating argument. That's the bottomline," Deshmukh said at the India Today Mumbai Conclave 2025.
To explain his point, Deshmukh mentioned why Akhilesh Yadav and the Samajwadi Party succeeded in the Lok Sabha polls and questioned how much of the same Tejashwi will be able to replicate. He said that Akhilesh expanded the 'MY' combine to include the youth, the women voters, and the middle class.
"In the last Lok Sabha election, his success came around only because outside the 5 immediate family members, he did not give a ticket to any sixth Yadav candidate. Outside of a few Muslim candidates, he refused to give tickets to Muslim candidates. He, kind of, tried to experiment, and he benefited out of it. Now, it remains to be seen how much of this experiment can Tejashwi Yadav do in Bihar."
Furthermore, AxisMyIndia's Pradeep Gupta noted that the caste factor is more important than women voters in Bihar. It is the only state where the Muslim-Yadav combine accounts for over 30 per cent of the total votes, he added.
"The beauty here is, unlike Uttar Pradesh or even West Bengal or even Assam, the equation is spread in such a way across all the 6 regions of Bihar, the plus-Y vote is in excess of 27 per cent of the 'MY' combine," Gupta said. He added that this is the case even in the Mithilanchal and Bhojpur regions of the state.
Being limited to the 'MY' combination is not the only challenge facing Tejashwi. Poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, with his Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), has also challenged the Yadav scion's appeal among the youth.
"Youth show the highest anti-incumbency because they consume everything on social media. However, unlike 2020, when Tejashwi Yadav got a lot of support from the youth. This time around, even Prashant Kishor is getting traction from the youth. The youth who is getting disgruntled with the Nitish Kumar regime is getting divided between two camps -- Tejashwi and Prashant Kishor," psephologist Amitabh Tiwari noted.
He added that Kishor has adversely impacted Tejashwi's brand among youth by constantly targeting the latter's educational credentials.
Yashwant Deshmukh, psephologist and the founder of CVoter Foundation, on Thursday said that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) cannot win Bihar by banking solely on the Muslim-Yadav combine or the 'MY' combination.
Calling the combine a "self-defeating equation", Deshmukh argued that the incumbent Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar can win Bihar poll after poll because he has his pulse on a voter base that swings the election in favour of the alliance of which the veteran is a part.
"It's a self-defeating equation. When was the last time Lalu ji won in Bihar? Do you remember that? The only person who has been winning Bihar is Nitish Kumar. Without Nitish Kumar, nobody is able to win. Why? Because he holds to a voter base which takes the pendulum this way or that way. So, MY on its own is a self-defeating argument. That's the bottomline," Deshmukh said at the India Today Mumbai Conclave 2025.
To explain his point, Deshmukh mentioned why Akhilesh Yadav and the Samajwadi Party succeeded in the Lok Sabha polls and questioned how much of the same Tejashwi will be able to replicate. He said that Akhilesh expanded the 'MY' combine to include the youth, the women voters, and the middle class.
"In the last Lok Sabha election, his success came around only because outside the 5 immediate family members, he did not give a ticket to any sixth Yadav candidate. Outside of a few Muslim candidates, he refused to give tickets to Muslim candidates. He, kind of, tried to experiment, and he benefited out of it. Now, it remains to be seen how much of this experiment can Tejashwi Yadav do in Bihar."
Furthermore, AxisMyIndia's Pradeep Gupta noted that the caste factor is more important than women voters in Bihar. It is the only state where the Muslim-Yadav combine accounts for over 30 per cent of the total votes, he added.
"The beauty here is, unlike Uttar Pradesh or even West Bengal or even Assam, the equation is spread in such a way across all the 6 regions of Bihar, the plus-Y vote is in excess of 27 per cent of the 'MY' combine," Gupta said. He added that this is the case even in the Mithilanchal and Bhojpur regions of the state.
Being limited to the 'MY' combination is not the only challenge facing Tejashwi. Poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor, with his Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), has also challenged the Yadav scion's appeal among the youth.
"Youth show the highest anti-incumbency because they consume everything on social media. However, unlike 2020, when Tejashwi Yadav got a lot of support from the youth. This time around, even Prashant Kishor is getting traction from the youth. The youth who is getting disgruntled with the Nitish Kumar regime is getting divided between two camps -- Tejashwi and Prashant Kishor," psephologist Amitabh Tiwari noted.
He added that Kishor has adversely impacted Tejashwi's brand among youth by constantly targeting the latter's educational credentials.