Game over for Mamata? Today's Chanakya predicts a landslide win for BJP in West Bengal

West Bengal Exit Poll Results 2026 | Today's Chanakya has projected a massive win for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in West Bengal, forecasting 192 seats for the party and around 100 for the ruling All India Trinamool Congress (AITMC).

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If the projection holds, the BJP would form a government in West Bengal for the first time, marking a historic breakthrough in a state long dominated by regional and Left politics.

The survey estimated the BJP's vote share at more than 48 per cent, up by 10 per cent from the 38 per cent it secured in 2021, when it won 77 seats and emerged as the principal opposition.

The TMC's projected vote share fell to around 38 per cent, down from 48 per cent in the 2021 Assembly election, when Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee led the party to a landslide victory with 213 seats.

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Most polls show BJP edge, some back TMC

The Axis My India numbers added to a broader trend in several exit polls released on Wednesday, many of which suggested an advantage for the BJP.

Chanakya projected 150-160 seats for the BJP and 130-140 for the TMC. Matrize forecast 146-161 for the BJP and 125-140 for the TMC. P-Marq gave the BJP 150-175 seats and the TMC 118-138.

Poll Diary projected 142-171 seats for the BJP, 99-127 for the TMC, and 3-5 for Congress. Praja Poll forecast 178-208 seats for the BJP and 85-110 for the TMC.

Two surveys, however, predicted a TMC return. People’s Pulse projected 177-187 seats for the TMC and 95-110 for the BJP, while Janmat forecast 195-205 seats for the TMC and 80-90 for the BJP alliance.

West Bengal has 294 Assembly seats, with the majority mark at 148.

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Suvendu claims BJP will cross 180

BJP's Suvendu Adhikari went further than most pollsters, claiming the party would win 180 seats. He also said that Mamata Banerjee will lose in the Bhabanipur constituency by over 20,000 votes. 

West Bengal recorded a combined turnout of 92.47 per cent across the two phases of polling, the highest in the state since Independence. Phase I on April 23 recorded 93.19 per cent turnout, while Phase II on Wednesday registered 91.66 per cent. 

The exceptionally high turnout has added to uncertainty over whether it signals support for change or renewed backing for the incumbent government. 

Exit polls have set the stage for a potentially dramatic result in one of the most fiercely contested states. Whether Mamata Banerjee secures another term or the BJP scripts history will be known when votes are counted on May 4.