'Mamata is losing Bhabanipur by...': Suvendu Adhikari's personal 'ground exit poll' for West Bengal

West Bengal Elections 2026 | BJP's Suvendu Adhikari on Wednesday shared his own "ground exit poll" for West Bengal, claiming the BJP would win more than 180 seats and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee would lose Bhabanipur by over 20,000 votes. Bhabanipur has eight wards, and Adhikari believes he will lead in seven.   

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Adhikari made the remarks after polling ended in the second and final phase of the 2026 West Bengal Assembly election. 

"Mamata Banerjee spent the entire day trying to intimidate the central forces. She attempted to intervene in the Gujarati-Marwari voting area with goons. I will win Bhawanipur by over 20,000 votes. I will lead in seven of the eight wards, and Mamata Banerjee will lead in one. The BJP will win in more than 180 seats. It will remain above that. A BJP government will be formed," he said.

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He also referred to turnout in the high-profile constituency. "In the Bhabanipur assembly constituency, more than 90% of voters have cast their votes. This is a record. In 2021, the voter turnout here was 82%; in 2024, it was 78%. This time, they could only cast 10-12 fake votes, in which 4-5 men wearing burqas cast votes at some booths in Ward 77. We caught them, after which they fled."

Bhabanipur, considered Banerjee's safest political fortress, witnessed a direct contest between the two rivals. Banerjee, a three-term MLA from the seat, is seeking to defend her home turf against Adhikari, who defeated her in Nandigram in 2021.

By 6 pm, Bhabanipur recorded 86.51 per cent polling, sharply higher than turnout levels seen in the 2021 Assembly election and the bypoll through which Banerjee returned to the Assembly after her Nandigram defeat.

Spread across eight Kolkata Municipal Corporation wards, Bhabanipur is one of the state’s most socially diverse constituencies, with Bengali Hindu, non-Bengali Hindu and Muslim voters, alongside trader and migrant communities.

Several exit polls released after voting projected an edge for the BJP. While most surveys projected a BJP victory or edge, two pollsters forecast a return for the Trinamool Congress.

Chanakya projected 150-160 seats for the BJP and 130-140 for the TMC. Matrize forecast 146-161 for the BJP and 125-140 for the TMC. P-Marq gave the BJP 150-175 seats and the TMC 118-138.

People's Pulse and Janmat, however, predicted victories for the TMC. People's Pulse projected 177-187 seats for the ruling party, while Janmat forecast 195-205. 

West Bengal has 294 Assembly seats, with the majority mark at 148. The final result will be declared when votes are counted on May 4.