Another blow for Uddhav and Raj Thackeray? Exit polls predict big win for BJP-Sena in BMC
According to the Axis My India exit poll, the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance is projected to win between 131 and 151 wards
- Jan 15, 2026,
- Updated Jan 15, 2026 8:12 PM IST
In what could be a massive setback to the Thackerays on their home turf, exit polls on Thursday predicted a decisive victory for the BJP–Shiv Sena combine in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). Most forecasts suggested the ruling alliance is set to comfortably cross the majority mark in Asia's richest civic body, which has 227 wards.
According to the Axis My India exit poll, the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance is projected to win between 131 and 151 wards, while JVC has forecast 138 wards for the combine. JDS has predicted 127–154 wards, Janmat Polls giving the alliance 138 seats, and DV Research estimating a range of 107–122 seats.
The high-stakes BMC elections were held on Thursday, after a gap of seven years. The counting of votes will take place on Friday (January 16).
The much-talked-about reunion of the once-estranged Thackeray cousins — Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray — appears unlikely to deliver the electoral boost they had hoped for. Axis My India has predicted 58–68 seats for the Shiv Sena (UBT)–MNS alliance, while JVC has put their tally at 59 wards.
The Congress, which entered into a last-minute alliance with Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), is expected to secure just 12–16 seats, according to the exit polls.
For decades, the BMC has been a bastion of the undivided Shiv Sena, remaining under its control since 1985, barring the period between 1992 and 1996. It was here that the Thackerays exercised their strongest political influence. However, the latest exit poll projections suggest that grip has weakened significantly, amid rising support for the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde.
In the 227-member BMC, the BJP contested 137 seats and the Shiv Sena 90, while Mahayuti ally Ajit Pawar's NCP chose to contest independently. On the other side, the Shiv Sena (UBT) joined hands with the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) and the MNS, while the Congress went it alone.
If the exit poll numbers hold, the outcome would deal a significant blow to the Thackerays' claim to the political legacy of Bal Thackeray. Both Uddhav and Raj centred their campaign on the Marathi manoos, or "sons of the soil". The projections, however, suggest the plank failed to resonate widely with voters in Mumbai, who appear to have backed the BJP–Shiv Sena leadership combination led by Devendra Fadnavis and Shinde.
How Uddhav and Raj Thackeray fared in 2024 Assembly Elections
Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) suffered a major defeat in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections, contesting 95 seats as part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance but winning only 20. Raj Thackeray's MNS fared even worse, fielding 125 candidates statewide—primarily 25-36 in Mumbai—and securing zero seats, including a third-place finish for Amit Thackeray in Mahim.
In what could be a massive setback to the Thackerays on their home turf, exit polls on Thursday predicted a decisive victory for the BJP–Shiv Sena combine in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). Most forecasts suggested the ruling alliance is set to comfortably cross the majority mark in Asia's richest civic body, which has 227 wards.
According to the Axis My India exit poll, the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance is projected to win between 131 and 151 wards, while JVC has forecast 138 wards for the combine. JDS has predicted 127–154 wards, Janmat Polls giving the alliance 138 seats, and DV Research estimating a range of 107–122 seats.
The high-stakes BMC elections were held on Thursday, after a gap of seven years. The counting of votes will take place on Friday (January 16).
The much-talked-about reunion of the once-estranged Thackeray cousins — Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray — appears unlikely to deliver the electoral boost they had hoped for. Axis My India has predicted 58–68 seats for the Shiv Sena (UBT)–MNS alliance, while JVC has put their tally at 59 wards.
The Congress, which entered into a last-minute alliance with Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), is expected to secure just 12–16 seats, according to the exit polls.
For decades, the BMC has been a bastion of the undivided Shiv Sena, remaining under its control since 1985, barring the period between 1992 and 1996. It was here that the Thackerays exercised their strongest political influence. However, the latest exit poll projections suggest that grip has weakened significantly, amid rising support for the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde.
In the 227-member BMC, the BJP contested 137 seats and the Shiv Sena 90, while Mahayuti ally Ajit Pawar's NCP chose to contest independently. On the other side, the Shiv Sena (UBT) joined hands with the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) and the MNS, while the Congress went it alone.
If the exit poll numbers hold, the outcome would deal a significant blow to the Thackerays' claim to the political legacy of Bal Thackeray. Both Uddhav and Raj centred their campaign on the Marathi manoos, or "sons of the soil". The projections, however, suggest the plank failed to resonate widely with voters in Mumbai, who appear to have backed the BJP–Shiv Sena leadership combination led by Devendra Fadnavis and Shinde.
How Uddhav and Raj Thackeray fared in 2024 Assembly Elections
Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) suffered a major defeat in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections, contesting 95 seats as part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance but winning only 20. Raj Thackeray's MNS fared even worse, fielding 125 candidates statewide—primarily 25-36 in Mumbai—and securing zero seats, including a third-place finish for Amit Thackeray in Mahim.