Beaten in Nandigram in 2021, now Bhabanipur in 2026: Why Mamata lost her last safe seat
Bhabanipur was not just a seat. It was the constituency where Mamata honed her political skills as a Youth Congress leader, where she lives in Kalighat, and where the TMC had always counted on a dependable home advantage
- May 5, 2026,
- Updated May 5, 2026 8:14 AM IST
Five years after defeating Mamata Banerjee in Nandigram, Suvendu Adhikari has done it again, this time in Bhabanipur, the Kolkata constituency that had served as Mamata's political lifeline after her 2021 defeat. The margin was 15,000 votes. The symbolism was total.
Bhabanipur was not just a seat. It was the constituency where Mamata honed her political skills as a Youth Congress leader, where she lives in Kalighat, and where the TMC had always counted on a dependable home advantage. Its loss, on a day the BJP swept to around 200 of Bengal's 293 seats, marked the end of 15 years of Trinamool rule.
The counting day swing
The result did not arrive cleanly. Mamata briefly led by more than 19,000 votes during counting, making the contest look comfortable. By 6:30 pm, that lead had shrunk to 2,900. By 9 pm, Adhikari had turned it around entirely, leading by over 11,000 votes with 18 of 20 rounds counted. The final margin settled at 15,000 in Adhikari's favour.
The demographics that shifted
Bhabanipur's electorate is roughly 42% Bengali Hindu, 34% non-Bengali Hindu and around 25% Muslim, with significant pockets of migrants from Bihar, Odisha and Jharkhand. Historically, the non-Bengali Hindu trader community, Gujaratis and Marwaris, had leaned towards the BJP. This time, Bengali Hindu voters shifted too, and that combination proved decisive.
The Special Intensive Revision of the electoral rolls added another layer of complexity. Between 47,000 and 51,000 names were reportedly deleted from Bhabanipur's rolls, with a disproportionate share believed to be Muslim voters, a core TMC constituency. The TMC alleged targeted disenfranchisement. The Election Commission maintained it was routine housekeeping. Whatever the truth, the impact was felt on polling day.
The BJP's Chakravyuh
The BJP did not stumble into Bhabanipur; it engineered the contest. For months, the party mapped the constituency at booth level, identifying Bengali Hindu and Hindi-speaking trader communities to build a consolidated non-Muslim vote. It then deployed its most potent weapon: Adhikari himself, the man who had already broken Mamata once.
Amit Shah accompanied Adhikari to file his nomination, describing a Bhabanipur win as the BJP's "shortcut to the change it promised for Bengal." The message was deliberate; this was a prestige battle, and the BJP intended to win it.
Don't miss: 'A new dawn': Industry bodies welcome government change in West Bengal Election Results 2026
The moment Mamata revealed her doubt
During campaigning, Mamata walked off the stage at a Bhabanipur rally, alleging her speech was being disrupted by a nearby BJP event. "Jodi paren, vote ta amay deben... amake meeting ta porjonto korte dicche na," she said — "If you can, do cast your vote for me. They aren't allowing me to even hold this meeting," and left.
The "if you can" was noticed. A veteran politician does not hedge like that on her home turf unless she senses the ground shifting. Monday's result confirmed she already knew.
Why was welfare not enough
The TMC's campaign rested on Lakshmir Bhandar, Kanyashree and Swasthya Sathi, welfare schemes that had delivered real benefits to millions. But 15 years of incumbency had accumulated its own weight. Corruption allegations, the cut-money culture, syndicate politics and governance fatigue had eroded the party's credibility well beyond what schemes could repair.
The RG Kar Medical College rape-murder case cast a particular shadow. Mamata had built her identity around women's empowerment. The case dented that image among exactly the voters, educated urban women, who were already anxious about jobs and safety. When welfare is the only argument left and the governance record is under scrutiny, it is rarely sufficient.
For Adhikari, Bhabanipur completes a personal arc that began in Nandigram in 2021. For Mamata, it is where her era ended.
(With inputs from Sushim Mukul)
Five years after defeating Mamata Banerjee in Nandigram, Suvendu Adhikari has done it again, this time in Bhabanipur, the Kolkata constituency that had served as Mamata's political lifeline after her 2021 defeat. The margin was 15,000 votes. The symbolism was total.
Bhabanipur was not just a seat. It was the constituency where Mamata honed her political skills as a Youth Congress leader, where she lives in Kalighat, and where the TMC had always counted on a dependable home advantage. Its loss, on a day the BJP swept to around 200 of Bengal's 293 seats, marked the end of 15 years of Trinamool rule.
The counting day swing
The result did not arrive cleanly. Mamata briefly led by more than 19,000 votes during counting, making the contest look comfortable. By 6:30 pm, that lead had shrunk to 2,900. By 9 pm, Adhikari had turned it around entirely, leading by over 11,000 votes with 18 of 20 rounds counted. The final margin settled at 15,000 in Adhikari's favour.
The demographics that shifted
Bhabanipur's electorate is roughly 42% Bengali Hindu, 34% non-Bengali Hindu and around 25% Muslim, with significant pockets of migrants from Bihar, Odisha and Jharkhand. Historically, the non-Bengali Hindu trader community, Gujaratis and Marwaris, had leaned towards the BJP. This time, Bengali Hindu voters shifted too, and that combination proved decisive.
The Special Intensive Revision of the electoral rolls added another layer of complexity. Between 47,000 and 51,000 names were reportedly deleted from Bhabanipur's rolls, with a disproportionate share believed to be Muslim voters, a core TMC constituency. The TMC alleged targeted disenfranchisement. The Election Commission maintained it was routine housekeeping. Whatever the truth, the impact was felt on polling day.
The BJP's Chakravyuh
The BJP did not stumble into Bhabanipur; it engineered the contest. For months, the party mapped the constituency at booth level, identifying Bengali Hindu and Hindi-speaking trader communities to build a consolidated non-Muslim vote. It then deployed its most potent weapon: Adhikari himself, the man who had already broken Mamata once.
Amit Shah accompanied Adhikari to file his nomination, describing a Bhabanipur win as the BJP's "shortcut to the change it promised for Bengal." The message was deliberate; this was a prestige battle, and the BJP intended to win it.
Don't miss: 'A new dawn': Industry bodies welcome government change in West Bengal Election Results 2026
The moment Mamata revealed her doubt
During campaigning, Mamata walked off the stage at a Bhabanipur rally, alleging her speech was being disrupted by a nearby BJP event. "Jodi paren, vote ta amay deben... amake meeting ta porjonto korte dicche na," she said — "If you can, do cast your vote for me. They aren't allowing me to even hold this meeting," and left.
The "if you can" was noticed. A veteran politician does not hedge like that on her home turf unless she senses the ground shifting. Monday's result confirmed she already knew.
Why was welfare not enough
The TMC's campaign rested on Lakshmir Bhandar, Kanyashree and Swasthya Sathi, welfare schemes that had delivered real benefits to millions. But 15 years of incumbency had accumulated its own weight. Corruption allegations, the cut-money culture, syndicate politics and governance fatigue had eroded the party's credibility well beyond what schemes could repair.
The RG Kar Medical College rape-murder case cast a particular shadow. Mamata had built her identity around women's empowerment. The case dented that image among exactly the voters, educated urban women, who were already anxious about jobs and safety. When welfare is the only argument left and the governance record is under scrutiny, it is rarely sufficient.
For Adhikari, Bhabanipur completes a personal arc that began in Nandigram in 2021. For Mamata, it is where her era ended.
(With inputs from Sushim Mukul)