Bengal's fertility among the lowest: India's population will stabilise below 2 bn by 2080
India's population is likely to peak at 1.8 or 1.9 billion by 2080 before stabilising
- Nov 30, 2025,
- Updated Nov 30, 2025 1:49 PM IST
India's population is set to stabilise by 2080 at around 1.8–1.9 billion, driven by a steep decline in fertility rates across states - with West Bengal now among the lowest in the country. India's rapid demographic transition is reshaping family structures, reproductive choices and long-term population growth.
"In 2000, our TFR was 3.5 and today it stands at 1.9. This is a drastic decline," Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP) general secretary Anil Chandran told news agency PTI. He said India's population is likely to peak at 1.8 or 1.9 billion by 2080 before stabilising. "All estimates show that India's maximum population will remain below two billion."
Chandran attributed the fall in fertility to expanding development indicators, higher education levels and improved access to contraception. Increased female literacy, he said, has directly influenced decisions on marriage and childbearing. "Couples today are better informed and exercise greater control over when and how many children to have," he said.
He noted that late marriages and growing economic opportunities - especially for women — have further pushed families toward fewer children. "Development is inversely proportional to birth rates. Illiterate groups still have fertility levels above three, but among the educated, TFR ranges between 1.5 and 1.8," Chandran said.
Kerala reached replacement-level fertility between 1987 and 1989 and today stands at a TFR of around 1.5. West Bengal has seen a similar shift. As per the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, Bengal's TFR has fallen to 1.3 - down from 1.7 in 2013, an 18% decline and far below the replacement level of 2.1.
West Bengal now ranks among the lowest in India, on par with Tamil Nadu and marginally above Delhi, while recording the lowest urban TFR and the second-lowest rural TFR nationally.
But the demographic story is not limited to falling birth rates. Rising life expectancy is reshaping India's age profile. "More people are living beyond 60, and this brings new challenges of elderly care, especially as younger people migrate for work," Chandran said, adding that solutions such as elderly day-care facilities are increasingly entering policy debates.
(With inputs from PTI)
India's population is set to stabilise by 2080 at around 1.8–1.9 billion, driven by a steep decline in fertility rates across states - with West Bengal now among the lowest in the country. India's rapid demographic transition is reshaping family structures, reproductive choices and long-term population growth.
"In 2000, our TFR was 3.5 and today it stands at 1.9. This is a drastic decline," Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP) general secretary Anil Chandran told news agency PTI. He said India's population is likely to peak at 1.8 or 1.9 billion by 2080 before stabilising. "All estimates show that India's maximum population will remain below two billion."
Chandran attributed the fall in fertility to expanding development indicators, higher education levels and improved access to contraception. Increased female literacy, he said, has directly influenced decisions on marriage and childbearing. "Couples today are better informed and exercise greater control over when and how many children to have," he said.
He noted that late marriages and growing economic opportunities - especially for women — have further pushed families toward fewer children. "Development is inversely proportional to birth rates. Illiterate groups still have fertility levels above three, but among the educated, TFR ranges between 1.5 and 1.8," Chandran said.
Kerala reached replacement-level fertility between 1987 and 1989 and today stands at a TFR of around 1.5. West Bengal has seen a similar shift. As per the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, Bengal's TFR has fallen to 1.3 - down from 1.7 in 2013, an 18% decline and far below the replacement level of 2.1.
West Bengal now ranks among the lowest in India, on par with Tamil Nadu and marginally above Delhi, while recording the lowest urban TFR and the second-lowest rural TFR nationally.
But the demographic story is not limited to falling birth rates. Rising life expectancy is reshaping India's age profile. "More people are living beyond 60, and this brings new challenges of elderly care, especially as younger people migrate for work," Chandran said, adding that solutions such as elderly day-care facilities are increasingly entering policy debates.
(With inputs from PTI)