China steel output slows while India emerges as key growth market: Goldman Sachs report

Global steel prices continued to climb across major markets in April and early May, with Brazil emerging as the strongest-performing region, even as China’s steel production remained under pressure due to delays in implementing capacity cuts, according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs.

In its latest “Global Steel: The Steel Market Barometer - May Update” report, Goldman Sachs said average hot rolled coil (HRC) prices increased across nearly all major regions in April. Brazil led the surge with a 10 per cent month-on-month rise, followed by Japan at 6.5 per cent and China at 2.9 per cent. 

“On a YTD basis, Brazil’s HRC steel price performance has been the strongest in our sample (+21%), followed by the US (+15%) with other regions also showing price increases from 6%-13%,” the report said.

Brazil tops gains in long steel prices too

The report noted that global long steel prices also recorded strong gains during April. Brazil again led the increase in rebar prices with a 12 per cent month-on-month jump, followed by Europe at 6.9 per cent and the Black Sea region at 6.1 per cent.

Goldman Sachs said the strength in prices reflected improving market conditions across several steel-producing economies, despite lingering concerns around global demand and production discipline.

China steel production remains under pressure

On the supply side, China’s steel production continued to decline on a yearly basis during the first two weeks of May. According to Goldman Sachs, China’s steel output was down 3.2 per cent year-on-year compared with the same period last year.

Commenting on the Chinese steel industry, the report said, “On the industry level, while the anti-involution effort and long-term capacity cut plan for the Chinese steel sector remain intact, we see delayed execution in 2026E in terms of both capacity and production discipline.”

The report suggested that although Beijing continues to push long-term reforms in the steel sector, implementation has been slower than expected, affecting efforts to curb excess production.

India among fastest-growing steel markets

India continued to stand out as one of the fastest-growing steel markets globally. Goldman Sachs said India’s crude steel production growth accelerated to 11 per cent year-on-year in March, compared with 10 per cent growth during the year-to-date period and 7 per cent growth in February.

The report also highlighted mixed trends across other major steel-producing regions.

In Europe, crude steel production increased 16 per cent month-on-month in March, though it remained down 3 per cent both year-on-year and on a year-to-date basis.

In the United States, average weekly steel production rose 3 per cent month-on-month in April, while utilisation rates averaged 79.6 per cent, showing improvement both sequentially and annually.

China infrastructure spending remains resilient

Despite continued weakness in China’s property market, Goldman Sachs said infrastructure activity remained relatively resilient. Infrastructure investment excluding water and power supply rose 8.9 per cent year-on-year during the first three months of 2026.

The report added that China’s manufacturing activity improved in March, while construction activity weakened, reflecting uneven demand trends across steel-consuming sectors.

Goldman Sachs projected relatively stable steel prices across major global markets through the remainder of 2026, with US steel prices expected to remain stronger than those in Europe, China and Brazil.