Crude could rocket to $200 a barrel if India decides to drop Russian oil, warns report

Global crude prices could more than triple to $200 a barrel if India stops buying Russian oil, according to internal government estimates reviewed by Reuters. 

The warning highlights how U.S. trade pressure risks disrupting one of the world’s most critical energy flows.

India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, ramped up Russian crude purchases after the Ukraine war, saving at least $17 billion since 2022. But new U.S. tariffs—up to 50% on Indian exports—threaten to undo those gains. The Global Trade Research Initiative projects India’s exports could plunge by 40%, or nearly $37 billion, this fiscal year.

Any halt to Russian crude, which now makes up 40% of India’s imports, would not only erase discounts of up to 7% but also jolt global markets. Indian officials warn the move would cripple domestic supply chains and send pump prices soaring.

“India needs Russia for defence equipment, cheap oil, and geopolitical backing,” Happymon Jacob, founder of Delhi’s Council for Strategic and Defence Research, was quoted as saying in the report. “But the United States continues to be India’s most important strategic partner. India doesn’t have the luxury of choosing one over the other.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has accused India of “profiteering” from Russian crude, while New Delhi rejects what it calls Washington’s double standards. India’s foreign ministry said imports were necessary “to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs.”