'Don't pick sides, be a third pole': Kishore Mahbubani on India's place in US-China rivalry
India can best protect its interests by building balanced relationships with both the US and China, says Mahbubani
- Oct 15, 2025,
- Updated Oct 15, 2025 1:38 PM IST
Amid accelerating US-China rivalry, former Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani has suggested that India must adopt a strategic position that is neither aligned too closely with Washington nor Beijing. He said India must establish itself as an independent third pole in the new multipolar world order.
Mahbubani, however, acknowledged that US President Donald Trump's transactional approach to diplomacy had created several challenges for India. He identified four key issues that India faced during Trump's presidency: the imposition of tariffs, the rehyphenation of India and Pakistan, H1B visa restrictions, and the shifting stance on the Chabahar Port. "India has been hit not once, not twice, not thrice, four times, amazingly," he remarked in an interview with CNN-News 18.
Despite these challenges, the former diplomat was optimistic about New Delhi's ability to overcome them, highlighting its growing strength and influence on the world stage. "India will certainly overcome these challenges. India is a big, powerful, and strong country," he added. He further stressed that India must recalibrate its foreign policy to adapt to the changing global dynamics of the 21st century, positioning itself as a third major economic power.
As Mahbubani pointed out, India is on the cusp of becoming the third-largest economy in the world, but it will still trail behind the US and China. In this context, he advocated for India to assert its independence, neither closely aligned with the US nor China. "The best place for India to be is to be an independent third pole in a multipolar world. Neither close to United States nor close to China but independent. And that's not where Indian foreign policy has drifted towards in the last few years," Mahbubani said.
Referring to the current tension, the former diplomat said: "So, in some ways, a moment like this if it leads to a recalibration of India's position, it'd be good for India. And even the United States would actually like to deal with a much more independent Indian pole. It can be more effective and a better friend for United States than one that is just seen to be very close to United States."
On the matter of US-China relations, Mahbubani highlighted the intensifying geopolitical contest between the two superpowers, which he deemed the defining issue of the current era. "The main defining geopolitical contest of our time is the US-China contest," he affirmed. Referring to his 2018 book 'Has China Won', Mahbubani explained that he had predicted the acceleration of US-China tensions, regardless of who occupied the White House. "Sadly, my predictions have come true."
Mahbubani warned against underestimating China's growing capabilities, acknowledging that the country would soon match or exceed the US in economic and geopolitical influence. "China is going to become as powerful as the United States and possibly more powerful than the United States," he said. Yet, he maintained that the US would remain a formidable global force, driven by its own national interests.
India, according to Mahbubani, must navigate this challenging geopolitical environment carefully. He suggested that India could best protect its interests by building balanced relationships with both the US and China. "The best place for India to be is to be equally close to both of them and not lean towards one or the other," he concluded.
Mahbubani predicted that India and China would never become close allies due to deep-rooted distrust. "There's too much distrust. But in geopolitics, you don't go for friendship, you go for protecting your own interests. and India can best protect its interests by just working with both sides."
Amid accelerating US-China rivalry, former Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani has suggested that India must adopt a strategic position that is neither aligned too closely with Washington nor Beijing. He said India must establish itself as an independent third pole in the new multipolar world order.
Mahbubani, however, acknowledged that US President Donald Trump's transactional approach to diplomacy had created several challenges for India. He identified four key issues that India faced during Trump's presidency: the imposition of tariffs, the rehyphenation of India and Pakistan, H1B visa restrictions, and the shifting stance on the Chabahar Port. "India has been hit not once, not twice, not thrice, four times, amazingly," he remarked in an interview with CNN-News 18.
Despite these challenges, the former diplomat was optimistic about New Delhi's ability to overcome them, highlighting its growing strength and influence on the world stage. "India will certainly overcome these challenges. India is a big, powerful, and strong country," he added. He further stressed that India must recalibrate its foreign policy to adapt to the changing global dynamics of the 21st century, positioning itself as a third major economic power.
As Mahbubani pointed out, India is on the cusp of becoming the third-largest economy in the world, but it will still trail behind the US and China. In this context, he advocated for India to assert its independence, neither closely aligned with the US nor China. "The best place for India to be is to be an independent third pole in a multipolar world. Neither close to United States nor close to China but independent. And that's not where Indian foreign policy has drifted towards in the last few years," Mahbubani said.
Referring to the current tension, the former diplomat said: "So, in some ways, a moment like this if it leads to a recalibration of India's position, it'd be good for India. And even the United States would actually like to deal with a much more independent Indian pole. It can be more effective and a better friend for United States than one that is just seen to be very close to United States."
On the matter of US-China relations, Mahbubani highlighted the intensifying geopolitical contest between the two superpowers, which he deemed the defining issue of the current era. "The main defining geopolitical contest of our time is the US-China contest," he affirmed. Referring to his 2018 book 'Has China Won', Mahbubani explained that he had predicted the acceleration of US-China tensions, regardless of who occupied the White House. "Sadly, my predictions have come true."
Mahbubani warned against underestimating China's growing capabilities, acknowledging that the country would soon match or exceed the US in economic and geopolitical influence. "China is going to become as powerful as the United States and possibly more powerful than the United States," he said. Yet, he maintained that the US would remain a formidable global force, driven by its own national interests.
India, according to Mahbubani, must navigate this challenging geopolitical environment carefully. He suggested that India could best protect its interests by building balanced relationships with both the US and China. "The best place for India to be is to be equally close to both of them and not lean towards one or the other," he concluded.
Mahbubani predicted that India and China would never become close allies due to deep-rooted distrust. "There's too much distrust. But in geopolitics, you don't go for friendship, you go for protecting your own interests. and India can best protect its interests by just working with both sides."