'Raise defence budget to 4% of GDP': Ex-Army general warns Pakistan may plan conflict in 5–10 yrs with China's support

Former Lieutenant General HS Panag has cautioned that India could face a renewed conflict with Pakistan, possibly in collusion with China, within the next five to ten years. In an article in The Print, he states that India must take specific steps to prepare for this scenario, including doubling its defence budget to 4% of GDP. 

"The transformation of the armed forces is an inescapable necessity to establish an overwhelming technological military edge over Pakistan and to stalemate China, that too for a conflict when both adversaries are in collusion," Panag writes. "And for this transformation to happen, we need to first double our defence budget to 4 per cent of the GDP. The USSR beggared itself in trying to militarily compete with the US and its allies, and so will Pakistan."

The top general notes that China is India's principal adversary in the long term, while Pakistan a mere irritant. According to him, the probability of another conflict with a "rejuvenated" Pakistan with coercive collusion of China remains high. "I assess that the minimum time this could take is 5 years, and the maximum, 10 years. However, if India creates the military capacity and the capability to more emphatically defeat Pakistan and simultaneously stalemate China, the conflict will be deterred."

He argues that India needs to adopt a structured approach to national security and defence planning. "India needs to formalise its National Security Strategy and the contingent National Defence Policy to rapidly transform its armed forces. This will pave the way for a military strategy that caters to threats across the spectrum of conflict."

The retired officer further writes that compellence has been imposed on Pakistan through a strategic psychological defeat during Operation Sindoor. But, he adds, its longevity is contingent on India maintaining an overwhelming technological military edge, which is out of reach for Pakistan. "Since the strategic psychological defeat has left its defence potential intact due to nuclear thresholds, Pakistan will always be tempted to technologically upgrade and create the capability to challenge India again."

However, Panag highlights, the economic constraints limit Pakistan's ability. "What stands in the way is its niggardly economy. With a GDP of $373 billion, this ambition will remain a pipe dream. China is unlikely to give Pakistan anything for free. It does not do so even in the case of North Korea."

US intel on Pakistan-China

Last month, a US intel report said that Pakistan regards India as an existential threat and will continue to pursue its military modernisation effort, including the development of battlefield nuclear weapons. "Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and maintaining the security of its nuclear materials and nuclear command and control," the intel said, adding that the country primarily is a recipient of China's economic and military largesse.

"Pakistani forces conduct multiple combined military exercises every year with China's PLA, including a new air exercise completed in November 2024. Foreign materials and technology supporting Pakistan's WMD programs are very likely acquired primarily from suppliers in China, and sometimes are transshipped through Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates."

The intel also stated that India views China as its primary adversary and Pakistan more an ancillary security problem to be managed. To counter Chinese influence and boost its global leadership role, the report added, India is giving priority to advancing its bilateral defense partnerships in the Indian Ocean region through exercises, training, arms sales, and information sharing.