El Nino may evolve faster, earlier than expected, says Skymet; will it impact Indian monsoons?
Monsoons in India: El Nino could strengthen faster as both surface and sub-surface levels of the tropical Pacific Ocean continue to warm sharply, the weather agency said.
- Jun 2, 2026,
- Updated Jun 2, 2026 12:49 PM IST
Monsoons in India: A full-blown El Nino might evolve faster and earlier than expected, said weather forecasting agency Skyment. The indications are there, it said – the equatorial Pacific Ocean is rapidly transitioning to El Nino conditions from neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions.
The equatorial Pacific Ocean is rapidly transitioning to El Nino conditions from neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said. A full-blown El Nino may evolve faster and earlier-than-expected based on previous timelines, the weather agency said.
El Nino could strengthen faster as both surface and sub-surface levels of the tropical Pacific Ocean continue to warm sharply, the weather agency said. This could increase the likelihood of a widespread event, bringing extreme temperature anomalies to many parts of the world and raising the risk to the Indian monsoon beyond earlier assessments.
Will it impact the monsoons?
The agency explained that the impact of El Nino on the Indian monsoon depends on the location of the warming. If the warming is farther east in the Pacific Ocean, the effect on the south-west monsoon may be weaker.
The monsoon is more affected when El Nino warming occurs over the Central Pacific Ocean, with cooling on either side in the eastern and western Pacific Ocean. This year, El Nino is expected to be a basin-wide event, influencing monsoon conditions in India, Indonesia, and West Africa.
The agency noted that it is still too early to predict the strength of the upcoming El Nino. Typically, El Nino and La Nina events reach their peak strength between October and February.
According to the agency, the development of El Nino is likely to accelerate, increasing the chances of an adverse impact on the monsoon. Historically, El Nino has affected the monsoon in two-thirds of the instances when it has occurred.
The weather agency added that past El Nino events have had a more severe impact on northern and central India, while southern and north-eastern regions have been less affected. Latest model projections indicate a faster strengthening of El Nino and a higher risk for the Indian monsoon this year.
What’s happening to Indian monsoons this year?
The southwest monsoon that was predicted to arrive in Kerala on May 26 will now come two-three days late, said India Meteorological Department (IMD). The weather department said that conditions are favourable for further advance of the rains into some more parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the next two-three days.
MUST READ | Will a below-normal monsoon and El Nino fuel food inflation concerns?
The department also predicted below-normal rainfall. It noted that India is expected to receive 90 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA) this year.
Monsoons in India: A full-blown El Nino might evolve faster and earlier than expected, said weather forecasting agency Skyment. The indications are there, it said – the equatorial Pacific Ocean is rapidly transitioning to El Nino conditions from neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions.
The equatorial Pacific Ocean is rapidly transitioning to El Nino conditions from neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said. A full-blown El Nino may evolve faster and earlier-than-expected based on previous timelines, the weather agency said.
El Nino could strengthen faster as both surface and sub-surface levels of the tropical Pacific Ocean continue to warm sharply, the weather agency said. This could increase the likelihood of a widespread event, bringing extreme temperature anomalies to many parts of the world and raising the risk to the Indian monsoon beyond earlier assessments.
Will it impact the monsoons?
The agency explained that the impact of El Nino on the Indian monsoon depends on the location of the warming. If the warming is farther east in the Pacific Ocean, the effect on the south-west monsoon may be weaker.
The monsoon is more affected when El Nino warming occurs over the Central Pacific Ocean, with cooling on either side in the eastern and western Pacific Ocean. This year, El Nino is expected to be a basin-wide event, influencing monsoon conditions in India, Indonesia, and West Africa.
The agency noted that it is still too early to predict the strength of the upcoming El Nino. Typically, El Nino and La Nina events reach their peak strength between October and February.
According to the agency, the development of El Nino is likely to accelerate, increasing the chances of an adverse impact on the monsoon. Historically, El Nino has affected the monsoon in two-thirds of the instances when it has occurred.
The weather agency added that past El Nino events have had a more severe impact on northern and central India, while southern and north-eastern regions have been less affected. Latest model projections indicate a faster strengthening of El Nino and a higher risk for the Indian monsoon this year.
What’s happening to Indian monsoons this year?
The southwest monsoon that was predicted to arrive in Kerala on May 26 will now come two-three days late, said India Meteorological Department (IMD). The weather department said that conditions are favourable for further advance of the rains into some more parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the next two-three days.
MUST READ | Will a below-normal monsoon and El Nino fuel food inflation concerns?
The department also predicted below-normal rainfall. It noted that India is expected to receive 90 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA) this year.