Ex-envoy on Trump tariffs: 'India should wait, Russia-Ukraine ceasefire could ease oil sanctions'
Former Indian High Commissioner Vikas Swarup pointed out that India's economic strength and strategic importance provide the country with valuable cards in negotiations with the US
- Aug 12, 2025,
- Updated Aug 12, 2025 2:27 PM IST
The ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could help ease tensions surrounding Russian oil sanctions and shift the dynamics of the ongoing tariff tensions between India and the US, according to former High Commissioner Vikas Swarup. He also pointed out that India's economic strength and strategic importance provide the country with valuable cards in negotiations with the US.
Speaking in an interview with CNBC 18, Swarup framed the tariff imposition as part of Trump's 'maximum pressure strategy', designed to force India into concessions on agriculture, dairy, and genetically modified foods. "Obviously, what has gone wrong is the fact that we have not caved in to the US pressure," Swarup said when asked what went wrong as India was the first to start negotiations but faced the 50% tariffs. "I look at these impositions of these fresh tariffs on India as part of the maximum pressure strategy - ratchet up the pressure on us to such an extent that we are forced to shift the goalposts."
According to Swarup, the roots of the tension also lie in India's refusal to acknowledge Trump's role in mediating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, a claim Trump has repeated several times. "Trump is miffed at our repeated snubbing of his role as the chief architect of the ceasefire between India and Pakistan." The former high commissioner noted that while Pakistan had publicly acknowledged Trump's efforts and nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize, India has officially denied external mediation.
But Swarup pointed out that the trade dispute is about more than just India's position on agriculture or dairy. He explained, "Trump is also signaling to Russia. He is frustrated at his inability to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Remember, he had promised that he would end hostilities within 24 hours of assuming office, but now it's been much more than 24 hours, and he hasn't been able to achieve that. So, this is also a signal to Russia: if you don’t play ball, we are ready to cut off your economic supply chains."
As the new tariffs are set to take effect on August 27, Swarup maintained that India still holds significant cards in the ongoing diplomatic tussle. "Let’s not forget we are the fastest-growing major economy in the world. We are the fourth-largest economy,” he said. He also stressed India's importance to American tech companies, the 5 million-strong Indian-American diaspora, and the 330,000 Indian students contributing to the US economy. Furthermore, India's strategic importance as a counterbalance to China in the Asia-Pacific region remains a key element in the equation.
"Trump knows that India is the only strategic bulwark to China in the region," Swarup remarked. "Apart from that, we are the best partner that America can have in areas such as technology, defense, and space. We’ve already seen joint launches of satellites developed by ISRO and NASA."
Despite these factors, Swarup suggeseted the need for India to practice strategic patience. He said the situation could shift if negotiations resume in late August. "The need of the hour is strategic patience," he said. "We might see a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. President Trump has said he wants to meet with President Putin and President Zelensky soon, and if that happens, the sanctions on Russia may be lifted."
Swarup also noted that if the tariffs remain in place for an extended period, retaliation may become a necessary consideration. "India should definitely consider retaliation if, after six months, these tariffs are not removed," he said. "The exposure that American companies have to India should also be part of our matrix."
The ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine could help ease tensions surrounding Russian oil sanctions and shift the dynamics of the ongoing tariff tensions between India and the US, according to former High Commissioner Vikas Swarup. He also pointed out that India's economic strength and strategic importance provide the country with valuable cards in negotiations with the US.
Speaking in an interview with CNBC 18, Swarup framed the tariff imposition as part of Trump's 'maximum pressure strategy', designed to force India into concessions on agriculture, dairy, and genetically modified foods. "Obviously, what has gone wrong is the fact that we have not caved in to the US pressure," Swarup said when asked what went wrong as India was the first to start negotiations but faced the 50% tariffs. "I look at these impositions of these fresh tariffs on India as part of the maximum pressure strategy - ratchet up the pressure on us to such an extent that we are forced to shift the goalposts."
According to Swarup, the roots of the tension also lie in India's refusal to acknowledge Trump's role in mediating a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, a claim Trump has repeated several times. "Trump is miffed at our repeated snubbing of his role as the chief architect of the ceasefire between India and Pakistan." The former high commissioner noted that while Pakistan had publicly acknowledged Trump's efforts and nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize, India has officially denied external mediation.
But Swarup pointed out that the trade dispute is about more than just India's position on agriculture or dairy. He explained, "Trump is also signaling to Russia. He is frustrated at his inability to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Remember, he had promised that he would end hostilities within 24 hours of assuming office, but now it's been much more than 24 hours, and he hasn't been able to achieve that. So, this is also a signal to Russia: if you don’t play ball, we are ready to cut off your economic supply chains."
As the new tariffs are set to take effect on August 27, Swarup maintained that India still holds significant cards in the ongoing diplomatic tussle. "Let’s not forget we are the fastest-growing major economy in the world. We are the fourth-largest economy,” he said. He also stressed India's importance to American tech companies, the 5 million-strong Indian-American diaspora, and the 330,000 Indian students contributing to the US economy. Furthermore, India's strategic importance as a counterbalance to China in the Asia-Pacific region remains a key element in the equation.
"Trump knows that India is the only strategic bulwark to China in the region," Swarup remarked. "Apart from that, we are the best partner that America can have in areas such as technology, defense, and space. We’ve already seen joint launches of satellites developed by ISRO and NASA."
Despite these factors, Swarup suggeseted the need for India to practice strategic patience. He said the situation could shift if negotiations resume in late August. "The need of the hour is strategic patience," he said. "We might see a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. President Trump has said he wants to meet with President Putin and President Zelensky soon, and if that happens, the sanctions on Russia may be lifted."
Swarup also noted that if the tariffs remain in place for an extended period, retaliation may become a necessary consideration. "India should definitely consider retaliation if, after six months, these tariffs are not removed," he said. "The exposure that American companies have to India should also be part of our matrix."