'Extinction-level drop': Sanjeev Sanyal warns of Ukraine's population collapse
The graph shared by Sanyal shows Ukraine's population declining from 49.6 million in 2000 to an estimated 39.5 million in 2026
- Nov 15, 2026,
- Updated Nov 15, 2026 9:05 PM IST
Economist Sanjeev Sanyal on Sunday warned that Ukraine is facing an "extinction-level drop" in population, sharing projections that suggest the war-torn country's population could fall from nearly 50 million in 2000 to just 15.2 million by the end of the century.
He said the country's ageing population means much of the decline may already be difficult to reverse.
In a post on X, Sanyal, a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, shared a graph showing Ukraine's population trajectory between 2000 and 2100.
In Case You Missed It: India's fertility rate falls below replacement. Sanjeev Sanyal's warning: Peak births were in 2001
"This is the trajectory of Ukraine's population. Even allowing for war-related displacement/casualties, this is an extinction-level drop in population in the course of a century," Sanyal wrote, while sharing a graph. "Note that the average Ukrainian is already 42 years old (ie entering the upper edge of childbearing age). So, a lot of the trajectory is now baked in."
Ukraine's population could fall to 15.2 million by 2100
The graph shared by Sanyal shows Ukraine's population declining from 49.6 million in 2000 to an estimated 39.5 million in 2026.
It projects a further decline to 32 million by 2050 and just 15.2 million by 2100.
That would represent a fall of nearly 70% from the 2000 population and about 62% from the 2026 estimate.
Ukraine's median age is estimated at around 42 years, while its fertility rate remains well below the level needed to replace its population over time.
War adds to Ukraine's demographic crisis
Ukraine's demographic challenges have intensified since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Millions of Ukrainians have fled the country, while military and civilian casualties, displacement and falling birth rates have added to the population crisis.
An October 2026 report by the Kyiv School of Economics estimated that 29.4 million people were living in government-controlled Ukrainian territory at the start of the year, with another 6.5 million Ukrainians living abroad as refugees or migrants.
The report said deaths had exceeded births by approximately 1.2 million since the beginning of 2022. It projected further population decline over the next 15 years under different migration scenarios.
More recently, in June 2026, Sanyal warned that India's own demographic trends were changing faster than many realised.
"Indians need to understand that the peak number of live births in India was back in 2001. But for longevity gains, population would have started to decline in the 2030s," he said in a post on X.
The United Nations has also warned that population decline is already underway in several major economies.
Economist Sanjeev Sanyal on Sunday warned that Ukraine is facing an "extinction-level drop" in population, sharing projections that suggest the war-torn country's population could fall from nearly 50 million in 2000 to just 15.2 million by the end of the century.
He said the country's ageing population means much of the decline may already be difficult to reverse.
In a post on X, Sanyal, a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, shared a graph showing Ukraine's population trajectory between 2000 and 2100.
In Case You Missed It: India's fertility rate falls below replacement. Sanjeev Sanyal's warning: Peak births were in 2001
"This is the trajectory of Ukraine's population. Even allowing for war-related displacement/casualties, this is an extinction-level drop in population in the course of a century," Sanyal wrote, while sharing a graph. "Note that the average Ukrainian is already 42 years old (ie entering the upper edge of childbearing age). So, a lot of the trajectory is now baked in."
Ukraine's population could fall to 15.2 million by 2100
The graph shared by Sanyal shows Ukraine's population declining from 49.6 million in 2000 to an estimated 39.5 million in 2026.
It projects a further decline to 32 million by 2050 and just 15.2 million by 2100.
That would represent a fall of nearly 70% from the 2000 population and about 62% from the 2026 estimate.
Ukraine's median age is estimated at around 42 years, while its fertility rate remains well below the level needed to replace its population over time.
War adds to Ukraine's demographic crisis
Ukraine's demographic challenges have intensified since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Millions of Ukrainians have fled the country, while military and civilian casualties, displacement and falling birth rates have added to the population crisis.
An October 2026 report by the Kyiv School of Economics estimated that 29.4 million people were living in government-controlled Ukrainian territory at the start of the year, with another 6.5 million Ukrainians living abroad as refugees or migrants.
The report said deaths had exceeded births by approximately 1.2 million since the beginning of 2022. It projected further population decline over the next 15 years under different migration scenarios.
More recently, in June 2026, Sanyal warned that India's own demographic trends were changing faster than many realised.
"Indians need to understand that the peak number of live births in India was back in 2001. But for longevity gains, population would have started to decline in the 2030s," he said in a post on X.
The United Nations has also warned that population decline is already underway in several major economies.