India's fertility rate falls below replacement. Sanjeev Sanyal's warning: Peak births were in 2001

Economist Sanjeev Sanyal on Sunday said Indians need to understand that the country's peak number of live births was recorded more than two decades ago, warning that population decline could have begun in the 2030s if not for gains in life expectancy.

Responding to a post highlighting India's declining birth rates, Sanyal, who is also a member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, wrote: "Been making this point for the last two decades - it is not a 'crisis' yet - there things take a long time to build up. However, Indians need to understand that the peak number of live births in India were back in 2001. But for longevity gains, population would have started to decline in the 2030s."

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His comments came after a post noted that India's total fertility rate (TFR) had dropped from 2.3 to 1.9 over the past decade, falling below the replacement level of 2.1. The accompanying chart shows that several Indian states now have fertility rates comparable to, or even lower than, those of developed countries.

Delhi's fertility rate was shown at around 1.2 births per woman, lower than Finland and close to China. Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal were estimated at about 1.3, while Telangana stood at 1.5. In contrast, Rajasthan (2.3), Uttar Pradesh (2.6), and Bihar (2.9) continue to record higher fertility rates.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk also reacted to the post, writing: "India's birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India's birth rate fell below replacement many years ago."

Sanyal has repeatedly warned that India's demographic challenge is no longer one of rapid population growth but of falling fertility and rising longevity. Writing last year with economist Sayandeb Banerjee, he noted that India's total fertility rate had already fallen below replacement levels and that the country's annual births had declined from a peak of about 29 million in 2001 to an estimated 23 million in 2024.

"The UN makes a fundamental assumption that countries with very low TFRs recover gradually to the replacement level. So far, no country with a lower-than-replacement-rate TFR has made a recovery to 2.1," Sanyal and Banerjee wrote.

According to their analysis, India's population is expected to continue growing for some time because of longer life expectancy and demographic momentum, but the country could reach a population peak of around 1.67 billion by 2055 before beginning a gradual decline.

The economists argued that the experience of countries such as China and South Korea shows how difficult it is to reverse declining fertility trends once they become entrenched, making demographic change one of the most important long-term challenges facing policymakers.