'Less than 5% of payments for Russian crude oil made in INR': Finfluencer explains India's dilemma
His take came after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday dismissed the notion of the Indian rupee emerging as a global reserve currency.
- Aug 28, 2025,
- Updated Aug 28, 2025 1:51 PM IST
A day after the 50 per cent tariffs by the US on Indian exports became effective, finfluencer Akshat Shrivastava took to social media to explain why India is in a catch-22 situation over the INR vs USD issue. Shrivastava claimed in his post that the US is laughing at India right now as Indians are making the fall of INR into a political issue and getting swayed by emotions.
His take came after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday dismissed the notion of the Indian rupee emerging as a global reserve currency. In an interview with Fox News, Bessent said: "There are a lot of things I worry about. The rupee becoming a reserve currency is not one of them".
He explained that the usefulness of a currency impacts its demand in the international market. Citing the example of India's purchases of Russian oil, the finfluencer said that India makes less than 5 per cent of the payment in INR.
"What impacts demand? In simple words: it is the usefulness of currency. Here is a real-world example: India pays an estimated $59.5 billion per year for crude oil and petroleum products imported from Russia (2024 data). Currently, less than 5% of this payment is made in INR. And, 95% is made in AED (UAE, Dirhams)," he wrote.
Furthermore, he said that India's export to Russia is only $5 billion, adding that New Delhi runs a massive trade deficit with Moscow. Shrivastava explained that Moscow can't do much with $5 billion worth of INR.
The finfluencer added that India experimented with a rupee trade settlement system with Russia in 2023, but that was abandoned.
"In simple words, our currency is not easily convertible because there is no real use case of INR for foreign sellers. This will hurt your emotions. But, the fact remains: 'Most Indian state oil refiners now pay Russia in UAE dirhams (AED) rather than rupees'. The US has no such problem despite its big debt. US$ is easily convertible. In fact, 54% of the world's trade gets settled in USD."
After explaining India's dilemma, he said that India can strengthen its rupee through export-led growth, trade partnerships and better relationships with other nations.
He said that India can consider China as it is working silently, building partnerships with every nation and improving their export competitiveness. "With time, they are improving the adoption/use-case of their currency. As a matter of fact: In the Russia-India oil trade, Yuan is more used than INR for trade settlements," Shrivastava claimed.
Towards the end of his post, he explained what is likely to happen if India continues on its current path.
"Our currency continues to go down. You will see INR hitting 110 per dollar in the next 5 years. There will be more capital restrictions (eg. Indian not allowed to send USD abroad or within certain limits). We become a very localized economy. This sounds very good. But, the trouble is: it cuts access to global products. We are already seeing this when it comes to our automobile Industry. This would percolate to other sectors."
A day after the 50 per cent tariffs by the US on Indian exports became effective, finfluencer Akshat Shrivastava took to social media to explain why India is in a catch-22 situation over the INR vs USD issue. Shrivastava claimed in his post that the US is laughing at India right now as Indians are making the fall of INR into a political issue and getting swayed by emotions.
His take came after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday dismissed the notion of the Indian rupee emerging as a global reserve currency. In an interview with Fox News, Bessent said: "There are a lot of things I worry about. The rupee becoming a reserve currency is not one of them".
He explained that the usefulness of a currency impacts its demand in the international market. Citing the example of India's purchases of Russian oil, the finfluencer said that India makes less than 5 per cent of the payment in INR.
"What impacts demand? In simple words: it is the usefulness of currency. Here is a real-world example: India pays an estimated $59.5 billion per year for crude oil and petroleum products imported from Russia (2024 data). Currently, less than 5% of this payment is made in INR. And, 95% is made in AED (UAE, Dirhams)," he wrote.
Furthermore, he said that India's export to Russia is only $5 billion, adding that New Delhi runs a massive trade deficit with Moscow. Shrivastava explained that Moscow can't do much with $5 billion worth of INR.
The finfluencer added that India experimented with a rupee trade settlement system with Russia in 2023, but that was abandoned.
"In simple words, our currency is not easily convertible because there is no real use case of INR for foreign sellers. This will hurt your emotions. But, the fact remains: 'Most Indian state oil refiners now pay Russia in UAE dirhams (AED) rather than rupees'. The US has no such problem despite its big debt. US$ is easily convertible. In fact, 54% of the world's trade gets settled in USD."
After explaining India's dilemma, he said that India can strengthen its rupee through export-led growth, trade partnerships and better relationships with other nations.
He said that India can consider China as it is working silently, building partnerships with every nation and improving their export competitiveness. "With time, they are improving the adoption/use-case of their currency. As a matter of fact: In the Russia-India oil trade, Yuan is more used than INR for trade settlements," Shrivastava claimed.
Towards the end of his post, he explained what is likely to happen if India continues on its current path.
"Our currency continues to go down. You will see INR hitting 110 per dollar in the next 5 years. There will be more capital restrictions (eg. Indian not allowed to send USD abroad or within certain limits). We become a very localized economy. This sounds very good. But, the trouble is: it cuts access to global products. We are already seeing this when it comes to our automobile Industry. This would percolate to other sectors."