Monsoon over Keralam: IMD shares fresh timeline for onset
The monsoon typically reaches Kerala around June 1 and marks the beginning of the four-month southwest monsoon season across India
- Jun 2, 2026,
- Updated Jun 2, 2026 1:14 PM IST
The southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala around June 4, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday, signalling the start of the country's main rainy season after a delayed onset.
"Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of Southwest and Southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Keralam and Tamil Nadu, some more parts of the Southwest, Westcentral, Eastcentral, and Northeast Bay of Bengal, and remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal around 4th June," the IMD Keralam said.
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The monsoon typically reaches Kerala around June 1 and marks the beginning of the four-month southwest monsoon season across India.
The update comes days after the weather office lowered its forecast for the June-September monsoon season. The IMD now expects seasonal rainfall over the country to be 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), with a model error margin of 4 per cent. In April, it had projected rainfall at 92 per cent of the LPA.
The long-period average seasonal rainfall for India, based on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 cm.
While northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall, most other regions could see below-normal precipitation during the monsoon season.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the IMD, said, "The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be below normal (less than 94 pc of LPA)."
He also said June rainfall across the country is likely to remain below normal. "The average rainfall for the country as a whole in June is most likely to be below normal — less than 92 pc of the LPA," Mohapatra said.
According to IMD classifications, a monsoon season with rainfall below 90 per cent of the LPA is considered "deficient".
The weather office said neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions over the equatorial Pacific are transitioning towards El Nino conditions. El Nino conditions are expected to remain weak in June before strengthening to moderate or strong levels by September, a development that typically suppresses monsoon rainfall over India.
The IMD also warned of higher temperatures and more heatwave days during June. Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country.
"During June, above-normal heatwave days are expected over many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh and isolated regions of Maharashtra," Mohapatra said.
The monsoon's arrival over Kerala will be closely watched, as it sets the pace for rainfall across much of the country and remains critical for agriculture, water reserves and the broader economy.
The southwest monsoon is likely to set in over Kerala around June 4, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday, signalling the start of the country's main rainy season after a delayed onset.
"Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of Southwest and Southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep Islands, some parts of Keralam and Tamil Nadu, some more parts of the Southwest, Westcentral, Eastcentral, and Northeast Bay of Bengal, and remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal around 4th June," the IMD Keralam said.
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The monsoon typically reaches Kerala around June 1 and marks the beginning of the four-month southwest monsoon season across India.
The update comes days after the weather office lowered its forecast for the June-September monsoon season. The IMD now expects seasonal rainfall over the country to be 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), with a model error margin of 4 per cent. In April, it had projected rainfall at 92 per cent of the LPA.
The long-period average seasonal rainfall for India, based on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 cm.
While northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall, most other regions could see below-normal precipitation during the monsoon season.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the IMD, said, "The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be below normal (less than 94 pc of LPA)."
He also said June rainfall across the country is likely to remain below normal. "The average rainfall for the country as a whole in June is most likely to be below normal — less than 92 pc of the LPA," Mohapatra said.
According to IMD classifications, a monsoon season with rainfall below 90 per cent of the LPA is considered "deficient".
The weather office said neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions over the equatorial Pacific are transitioning towards El Nino conditions. El Nino conditions are expected to remain weak in June before strengthening to moderate or strong levels by September, a development that typically suppresses monsoon rainfall over India.
The IMD also warned of higher temperatures and more heatwave days during June. Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country.
"During June, above-normal heatwave days are expected over many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh and isolated regions of Maharashtra," Mohapatra said.
The monsoon's arrival over Kerala will be closely watched, as it sets the pace for rainfall across much of the country and remains critical for agriculture, water reserves and the broader economy.