'Not about trade, but Indo-Pacific': Ex-foreign secretary on why India's importance has shifted under Trump
Shyam Saran says the inability to finalise a trade deal points to a "larger geopolitical challenge"
- Oct 27, 2025,
- Updated Oct 27, 2025 6:07 PM IST
Former foreign secretary Shyam Saran has said that U.S. President Donald Trump's shifting geopolitical priorities signal a clear retreat from the Indo-Pacific focus that once underpinned Washington's engagement with India.
"There is a changed geopolitical context and the sooner we understand that, the better we would be able to cope with the changed circumstances," Saran said in an interview with The Wire. "In the present geopolitical situation, it is Russia, which appears to be a more reliable and predictable partner than the United States of America is."
Saran was responding to a question on Trump's repeated claim that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised to cut back on Russian oil. He said it would have been politically unwise for Modi to make such a commitment to Trump, especially ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to India in December.
"The recent sanctions that have been put on Lukoil and Rosneft of Russia will probably compel India to reduce oil purchases from Russia, particularly if secondary sanctions are also announced. By the way, secondary sanctions have not yet been announced, but it would be perhaps wise to expect that those secondary sanctions will also kick in sometime later," Saran said.
He added that Indian companies dependent on U.S. financial systems, such as Reliance, would likely find it difficult to continue Russian oil purchases, while state-owned firms could still operate through intermediaries. "But yes, as far as the major oil companies in India are concerned, these sanctions will mean that they will have no option but to reduce their imports from Russia," he said.
On the broader question of how these sanctions might affect Indo-U.S. ties, Saran said relations were already "in a very challenging phase."
"I cannot see our relations with the U.S., even if we manage to get a trade deal in the aftermath of our reduced purchases of Russian oil, going back to where they were before these sanctions were put on India," he said. "Also, the kind of outreach which has been made to Pakistan by President Trump at a time when India-Pakistan relations themselves are under so much tension…it already is a pressure point."
He added that the inability to finalise a trade deal points to a "larger geopolitical challenge." "This is not about trade; this is about changed geopolitics. The Indo-Pacific strategy, which was a central node of U.S. global strategy, has now diminished in importance. And if that has diminished, India's importance to the United States of America has also diminished as a result," Saran said.
The former foreign secretary argued that Trump’s worldview had shifted away from the Indo-Pacific to "hemispheric security," focusing more on domestic and regional issues. "Europe has been completely sidelined… as far as the Indo-Pacific strategy is concerned, it is already undergoing a major change. If tomorrow, when he meets Xi Jinping, some kind of an understanding is reached with China, then that will mean even less importance attached to the Indo-Pacific strategy," he said.
Saran also pointed out that key initiatives once central to U.S. policy - such as the Quad - were no longer a priority. "You had the Australian prime minister recently visit the White House. They did talk about AUKUS, but there was not one single mention of the Quad in this visit. The Quad, which was supposed to be a lynchpin of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, seems to have fallen by the wayside," he said.
Asked whether Trump's attitude toward India was also shaped by personal factors, Saran said Trump's inflated ego and need for recognition played a role. "He keeps repeating that he avoided a war between India and Pakistan. India keeps saying that the United States and President Trump had no role to play in that respect. For a person like Trump who has a very inflated ego, this is something that he’s not able to stomach," Saran said.
Concluding, Saran noted that even the revival of the Indo-Pacific strategy and the Quad took place under Trump's first term, making the current shift more surprising. "This is a major change and frankly speaking, I had not expected that there would be such a major shift," he said. "There is a certain method in this madness, however bizarre it may seem, but we have to take that into account."
Former foreign secretary Shyam Saran has said that U.S. President Donald Trump's shifting geopolitical priorities signal a clear retreat from the Indo-Pacific focus that once underpinned Washington's engagement with India.
"There is a changed geopolitical context and the sooner we understand that, the better we would be able to cope with the changed circumstances," Saran said in an interview with The Wire. "In the present geopolitical situation, it is Russia, which appears to be a more reliable and predictable partner than the United States of America is."
Saran was responding to a question on Trump's repeated claim that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised to cut back on Russian oil. He said it would have been politically unwise for Modi to make such a commitment to Trump, especially ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin's upcoming visit to India in December.
"The recent sanctions that have been put on Lukoil and Rosneft of Russia will probably compel India to reduce oil purchases from Russia, particularly if secondary sanctions are also announced. By the way, secondary sanctions have not yet been announced, but it would be perhaps wise to expect that those secondary sanctions will also kick in sometime later," Saran said.
He added that Indian companies dependent on U.S. financial systems, such as Reliance, would likely find it difficult to continue Russian oil purchases, while state-owned firms could still operate through intermediaries. "But yes, as far as the major oil companies in India are concerned, these sanctions will mean that they will have no option but to reduce their imports from Russia," he said.
On the broader question of how these sanctions might affect Indo-U.S. ties, Saran said relations were already "in a very challenging phase."
"I cannot see our relations with the U.S., even if we manage to get a trade deal in the aftermath of our reduced purchases of Russian oil, going back to where they were before these sanctions were put on India," he said. "Also, the kind of outreach which has been made to Pakistan by President Trump at a time when India-Pakistan relations themselves are under so much tension…it already is a pressure point."
He added that the inability to finalise a trade deal points to a "larger geopolitical challenge." "This is not about trade; this is about changed geopolitics. The Indo-Pacific strategy, which was a central node of U.S. global strategy, has now diminished in importance. And if that has diminished, India's importance to the United States of America has also diminished as a result," Saran said.
The former foreign secretary argued that Trump’s worldview had shifted away from the Indo-Pacific to "hemispheric security," focusing more on domestic and regional issues. "Europe has been completely sidelined… as far as the Indo-Pacific strategy is concerned, it is already undergoing a major change. If tomorrow, when he meets Xi Jinping, some kind of an understanding is reached with China, then that will mean even less importance attached to the Indo-Pacific strategy," he said.
Saran also pointed out that key initiatives once central to U.S. policy - such as the Quad - were no longer a priority. "You had the Australian prime minister recently visit the White House. They did talk about AUKUS, but there was not one single mention of the Quad in this visit. The Quad, which was supposed to be a lynchpin of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, seems to have fallen by the wayside," he said.
Asked whether Trump's attitude toward India was also shaped by personal factors, Saran said Trump's inflated ego and need for recognition played a role. "He keeps repeating that he avoided a war between India and Pakistan. India keeps saying that the United States and President Trump had no role to play in that respect. For a person like Trump who has a very inflated ego, this is something that he’s not able to stomach," Saran said.
Concluding, Saran noted that even the revival of the Indo-Pacific strategy and the Quad took place under Trump's first term, making the current shift more surprising. "This is a major change and frankly speaking, I had not expected that there would be such a major shift," he said. "There is a certain method in this madness, however bizarre it may seem, but we have to take that into account."