Pakistan faces vaccine cost shock as Indian supplies dry up after Operation Sindoor

The disruption of cost-effective vaccine supplies from India following the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict has begun to strain Pakistan’s public health system and economy, Health Minister Mustafa Kamal said on February 7, warning that the country’s long-standing dependence on external suppliers has become a growing vulnerability. 

For years, Pakistan relied on vaccines procured through the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI), a public-private partnership that supports immunisation programmes in low-income countries. A significant portion of these vaccines were manufactured in India, enabling Pakistan to maintain wide coverage at relatively low cost despite tense bilateral relations. 

Rising costs as Indian supplies dry up 

“Currently, Pakistan imports vaccines at an annual cost of approximately $400 million, with international partners covering nearly half through GAVI,” Kamal said. “Now, Pakistan is responsible for 51 percent of the total cost.” 

The health minister warned that without domestic manufacturing capacity, the financial burden could rise sharply. Pakistan’s annual vaccine import bill could touch $1.2 billion by 2031, he said, noting that international support for vaccine procurement is expected to end by that year. 

Historically, GAVI has acted as both a funding partner and a procurement intermediary, sourcing vaccines — largely from Indian pharmaceutical companies and institutes — and ensuring affordable access for Pakistani children. During the COVID-19 pandemic, GAVI also helped procure millions of Indian-made vaccines for Pakistan under the COVAX facility. 

Heavy dependence meets demographic pressure 

Pakistan currently provides 13 types of vaccines free of charge to citizens, yet none are produced locally. This reliance on imports is becoming more pronounced given the country’s demographic profile. 

With a population of nearly 240 million and around 6.2 million births every year, Pakistan faces steadily rising demand for vaccines. Kamal said international assistance has so far kept annual import costs within manageable limits, but warned that this cushion may soon disappear unless local production begins. 

Push for self-sufficiency amid geopolitical fallout 

Kamal’s remarks come in the aftermath of heightened regional tensions. India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7 last year, targeting terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in retaliation for the Pahalgam attack that killed 26 civilians. The operation triggered four days of intense clashes before both sides reached an understanding to halt military actions on May 10. 

While vaccine supplies were not directly targeted, the disruption has highlighted how geopolitical crises can spill over into critical civilian sectors such as healthcare. 

The government has already begun preparatory work to build domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity rather than waiting for donor support to lapse, Kamal said, adding that Pakistan aims to achieve self-sufficiency in vaccine production in the near future to reduce costs and insulate itself from external shocks.