'US did it to Japan': China expert warns India is next in America's containment playbook
Prime Minister Modi should move India's economy closer to China in the coming three to five years, the expert had said in May
- Aug 5, 2025,
- Updated Aug 5, 2025 1:43 PM IST
Shaun Rein, founder of The China Market Research Group and a long-time critic of US foreign policy, on Monday urged India to reconsider its strategic distance from China, saying recent developments vindicate his earlier warnings.
"I've been warning India for years that America will try to contain them the way the US did to Japan and is trying to do with China. Or you can be like EU & be a vassal," Rein wrote on X. "Indians attacked me & said China is the big threat. Well, who's right after Trump's threat & tariffs? India should move closer to China."
Rein's comment came right after US President Donald Trump announced that he would "substantially" raise tariffs on Indian goods, citing India's oil trade with Russia. "India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits," Trump said. "They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine."
In May, Rein had made a similar point in an interview, saying: "Prime Minister Modi should move India's economy closer to China in the coming three to five years." He warned that Indians cannot trust America: "If India gets too powerful — and you will get that powerful in 10 to 20 years — the Americans are going to try to destroy India and contain you."
Harsh V Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at the ORF, in his analysis in Foreign Policy, writes: "Trump has given some signals of moving closer to China, prompting New Delhi to find its own balance between Washington and Beijing." According to him, India's recent outreach to China should not be misread as strategic weakness. "Rather, it is a form of tactical accommodation to evolving geopolitical realities," they wrote.
The article notes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the 2024 BRICS summit for the first time in five years. Since then, both sides have taken incremental steps: Indian herders resumed grazing rights, Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimages were restored, and talks are underway to reopen direct flights.
India-China relations had nosedived after the 2020 Galwan clashes but are now gradually getting back on track through diplomatic and economic engagement.
Reinforced by Trump's renewed trade salvos and his growing proximity to Pakistan - including meetings with Army Chief Asim Munir and US honors for General Michael Kurilla - Indian policymakers are recalibrating. Some in Beijing interpret the US-Pakistan warmth as a strategic move to extract intelligence on Chinese systems and disrupt the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Security analyst Sushant Sareen also it out at Trump, saying the US has just lost India. "Even if these Trump Tantrum Tariffs end, who in India will trust the US anymore? Meanwhile, prime up your missiles and other offensive & defensive capabilities. Pakis will be itching to try their luck."
India's Ministry of External Affairs, responding to the tariffs, highlighted Western hypocrisy. "India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe. The United States at that time actively encouraged such imports by India," it said.
The MEA noted that the European Union's trade with Russia in 2024 stood at €67.5 billion in goods and €17.2 billion in services, far higher than India's. It also underlined that the US continues to import from Russia uranium hexafluoride, palladium, fertilizers, and chemicals.
Shaun Rein, founder of The China Market Research Group and a long-time critic of US foreign policy, on Monday urged India to reconsider its strategic distance from China, saying recent developments vindicate his earlier warnings.
"I've been warning India for years that America will try to contain them the way the US did to Japan and is trying to do with China. Or you can be like EU & be a vassal," Rein wrote on X. "Indians attacked me & said China is the big threat. Well, who's right after Trump's threat & tariffs? India should move closer to China."
Rein's comment came right after US President Donald Trump announced that he would "substantially" raise tariffs on Indian goods, citing India's oil trade with Russia. "India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits," Trump said. "They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine."
In May, Rein had made a similar point in an interview, saying: "Prime Minister Modi should move India's economy closer to China in the coming three to five years." He warned that Indians cannot trust America: "If India gets too powerful — and you will get that powerful in 10 to 20 years — the Americans are going to try to destroy India and contain you."
Harsh V Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at the ORF, in his analysis in Foreign Policy, writes: "Trump has given some signals of moving closer to China, prompting New Delhi to find its own balance between Washington and Beijing." According to him, India's recent outreach to China should not be misread as strategic weakness. "Rather, it is a form of tactical accommodation to evolving geopolitical realities," they wrote.
The article notes that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the 2024 BRICS summit for the first time in five years. Since then, both sides have taken incremental steps: Indian herders resumed grazing rights, Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimages were restored, and talks are underway to reopen direct flights.
India-China relations had nosedived after the 2020 Galwan clashes but are now gradually getting back on track through diplomatic and economic engagement.
Reinforced by Trump's renewed trade salvos and his growing proximity to Pakistan - including meetings with Army Chief Asim Munir and US honors for General Michael Kurilla - Indian policymakers are recalibrating. Some in Beijing interpret the US-Pakistan warmth as a strategic move to extract intelligence on Chinese systems and disrupt the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
Security analyst Sushant Sareen also it out at Trump, saying the US has just lost India. "Even if these Trump Tantrum Tariffs end, who in India will trust the US anymore? Meanwhile, prime up your missiles and other offensive & defensive capabilities. Pakis will be itching to try their luck."
India's Ministry of External Affairs, responding to the tariffs, highlighted Western hypocrisy. "India began importing from Russia because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe. The United States at that time actively encouraged such imports by India," it said.
The MEA noted that the European Union's trade with Russia in 2024 stood at €67.5 billion in goods and €17.2 billion in services, far higher than India's. It also underlined that the US continues to import from Russia uranium hexafluoride, palladium, fertilizers, and chemicals.