'World is looking at India due to the predictability': Rajesh Agarwal, Special Secretary at Department of Commerce
On the ongoing discussions about a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the US, Agarwal clarified, “We entered into BTA discussions much before reciprocal tariffs came up.” He added, “The whole discussion around the trade deficit is the narrative of the US administration.”
- May 29, 2025,
- Updated May 29, 2025 5:08 PM IST
The global trade landscape is undergoing a seismic shift. Supply chains are no longer just economic tools — they are geopolitical levers. In this evolving scenario, India sees a once-in-a-generation opportunity to position itself as a reliable hub for both production and consumption. Rajesh Agarwal, Special Secretary, Department of Commerce, lays out how the world’s trust deficit in existing trade structures is opening new doors for India.
“We are in a global world where both markets and supply chains are being weaponised,” said Agarwal, warning that this represents a major challenge for global trading institutions like the WTO. “The WTO was meant to uphold a market-driven global trade system based on comparative advantage. But we’ve allowed non-market economic practices to coexist unchecked,” he added.
Turning to future strategies, Agarwal emphasised the need for India Inc to take initiative. “We need to work with partners across the world and build out supply chains… We need to focus on critical supply chains, technology, and resources,” he said, warning against future vulnerabilities.
On the ongoing discussions about a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the US, Agarwal clarified, “We entered into BTA discussions much before reciprocal tariffs came up.” He remained optimistic: “We will come out with good outcomes sooner or later.”
He added, “The whole discussion around the trade deficit is the narrative of the US administration. Those are the challenges they have to meet as a big market.”
According to Agarwal, the global trade system has failed to maintain a balanced structure over the last 25 years. “There’s been a market failure — WTO hasn’t been able to prevent concentration of production and supply chains,” he said, pointing to a growing risk businesses now face from over-concentrated, fragile supply networks.
“The old model of chasing just-in-time inventory and ROE isn’t enough in today’s geopolitical climate,” he noted.
India, Agarwal argued, has a unique advantage. It’s not just a massive market, but also an increasingly trusted manufacturing base. “India’s foreign policy has created a trusted partnership across the world. The world is looking at relationships where they can trust and find long-term growth — India is positioned strongly on this,” he said.
The shift in global economics is clear. “Companies are scrambling to fix past over-dependence on select geographies,” Agarwal stated, emphasizing a new focus on risk, resilience, and geopolitical shocks. “If you control demand or supply chains, you’re using it as leverage — and that’s a dangerous shift.”
He underscored that India, with a $500 billion manufacturing GVA, is ready to punch above its weight in global growth. “For India, this is more than a challenge — it’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity,” he said.
Agarwal is the chief negotiator for the proposed bilateral trade agreement with the US. He is also leading the review of the free trade agreement in goods with the 10-nation ASEAN bloc.
In addition, he is also incharge of the Agricultural & Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA). He is also the chief negotiator for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).
The global trade landscape is undergoing a seismic shift. Supply chains are no longer just economic tools — they are geopolitical levers. In this evolving scenario, India sees a once-in-a-generation opportunity to position itself as a reliable hub for both production and consumption. Rajesh Agarwal, Special Secretary, Department of Commerce, lays out how the world’s trust deficit in existing trade structures is opening new doors for India.
“We are in a global world where both markets and supply chains are being weaponised,” said Agarwal, warning that this represents a major challenge for global trading institutions like the WTO. “The WTO was meant to uphold a market-driven global trade system based on comparative advantage. But we’ve allowed non-market economic practices to coexist unchecked,” he added.
Turning to future strategies, Agarwal emphasised the need for India Inc to take initiative. “We need to work with partners across the world and build out supply chains… We need to focus on critical supply chains, technology, and resources,” he said, warning against future vulnerabilities.
On the ongoing discussions about a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the US, Agarwal clarified, “We entered into BTA discussions much before reciprocal tariffs came up.” He remained optimistic: “We will come out with good outcomes sooner or later.”
He added, “The whole discussion around the trade deficit is the narrative of the US administration. Those are the challenges they have to meet as a big market.”
According to Agarwal, the global trade system has failed to maintain a balanced structure over the last 25 years. “There’s been a market failure — WTO hasn’t been able to prevent concentration of production and supply chains,” he said, pointing to a growing risk businesses now face from over-concentrated, fragile supply networks.
“The old model of chasing just-in-time inventory and ROE isn’t enough in today’s geopolitical climate,” he noted.
India, Agarwal argued, has a unique advantage. It’s not just a massive market, but also an increasingly trusted manufacturing base. “India’s foreign policy has created a trusted partnership across the world. The world is looking at relationships where they can trust and find long-term growth — India is positioned strongly on this,” he said.
The shift in global economics is clear. “Companies are scrambling to fix past over-dependence on select geographies,” Agarwal stated, emphasizing a new focus on risk, resilience, and geopolitical shocks. “If you control demand or supply chains, you’re using it as leverage — and that’s a dangerous shift.”
He underscored that India, with a $500 billion manufacturing GVA, is ready to punch above its weight in global growth. “For India, this is more than a challenge — it’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity,” he said.
Agarwal is the chief negotiator for the proposed bilateral trade agreement with the US. He is also leading the review of the free trade agreement in goods with the 10-nation ASEAN bloc.
In addition, he is also incharge of the Agricultural & Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA). He is also the chief negotiator for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).