‘Would vindicate Washington’s calculation’: Brahma Chellaney on India mulling cutting Russian oil imports

If India decides to cut Russian oil imports then it would vindicate Washington’s calculation and the assumption that New Delhi is susceptible to US’ pressure tactics, said geostrategist Brahma Chellaney. He pointed out that India was singled out for a maneuver that was followed by others such as Japan, Turkey and the European Union.

“India has been singled out for secondary US sanctions over its Russian oil imports, even as the EU, Japan, and Turkey continue major purchases of Russian energy. If reports are correct that New Delhi plans to sharply curtail Russian imports — just as it ended all Iranian oil imports in 2019 — it would vindicate Washington’s calculation that, unlike China, India remains susceptible to US pressure,” said Chellaney.

Reports from last month stated that Indian refiners are poised to sharply curtail imports of Russian oil to comply with new US sanctions on two top Russian producers. The move arrives as India faces steep 50 per cent tariffs on exports to the US, with half of those duties imposed as retaliation for Russian oil purchases. Talks are ongoing to secure a trade deal that could see these tariffs reduced in exchange for a commitment to wind down crude imports from Moscow. India, which emerged as the biggest buyer of discounted seaborne Russian crude following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, imported about 1.7 million barrels per day in the first nine months of this year.

The US sanctions specifically target Lukoil and Rosneft, Russia's two largest oil producers. Privately-owned Reliance Industries, the top Indian buyer of Russian crude, plans to reduce or cease imports of Russian oil, including halting purchases under its large long-term deal with Rosneft, people familiar with the matter said.

Indian state refiners including Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp are also reviewing their Russian oil trade documents to ensure no supply will be coming directly from Rosneft and Lukoil after the US sanctioned the oil companies, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said on Thursday. India's oil ministry and state refiners have not immediately responded to requests for comment.