Patent cliff to slash protected drug sales to just 4% by 2030: GlobalData
Its report estimates that more than half of the world’s top 15 pharmaceutical companies will face material challenges over the coming years
- Dec 24, 2025,
- Updated Dec 24, 2025 6:30 PM IST
dustry is heading towards a steep patent cliff, with the share of drug sales protected by exclusivity set to shrink sharply by the end of the decade, according to a new report by GlobalData, an intelligence and productivity platform.
In its report, “The State of the Biopharmaceutical Industry 2026”, GlobalData projects that only 4% of global drug sales will remain patent-protected by 2030, down from 12% in 2022 and 6% in 2024. The pace of erosion reflects a clustering of patent expiries across both biologics and small-molecule drugs with multiple indications.
Oncology and other therapy areas dominated by high-value biologics are expected to be among the most exposed. Leading drugs such as Keytruda from Merck and Darzalex/Faspro from Johnson & Johnson are set to lose US patent protection by 2029, opening the door to biosimilar and generic competition. While these products are forecast to remain among the world’s top-selling medicines by 2030, revenues are expected to weaken as pricing pressure builds.
The report estimates that more than half of the world’s top 15 pharmaceutical companies will face material challenges over the coming years. “The scale of revenue at risk means companies must increasingly rely on the strength of their pipelines and next-generation assets to offset losses and remain competitive,” said George El-Helou, Strategic Intelligence Analyst at GlobalData.
The exposure is sharper in oncology, where many drugs are embedded in standard treatment pathways, leading to faster and deeper erosion once alternatives enter the market. As a result, pharmaceutical companies are intensifying lifecycle management efforts, including formulation changes, new delivery formats, label expansions and follow-on therapies.
Next-generation assets, including improved biologics and novel mechanisms of action, are expected to play a larger role as exclusivity periods shorten. “Companies that deploy early portfolio planning and lifecycle strategies will be better placed to protect revenues,” El-Helou said.
dustry is heading towards a steep patent cliff, with the share of drug sales protected by exclusivity set to shrink sharply by the end of the decade, according to a new report by GlobalData, an intelligence and productivity platform.
In its report, “The State of the Biopharmaceutical Industry 2026”, GlobalData projects that only 4% of global drug sales will remain patent-protected by 2030, down from 12% in 2022 and 6% in 2024. The pace of erosion reflects a clustering of patent expiries across both biologics and small-molecule drugs with multiple indications.
Oncology and other therapy areas dominated by high-value biologics are expected to be among the most exposed. Leading drugs such as Keytruda from Merck and Darzalex/Faspro from Johnson & Johnson are set to lose US patent protection by 2029, opening the door to biosimilar and generic competition. While these products are forecast to remain among the world’s top-selling medicines by 2030, revenues are expected to weaken as pricing pressure builds.
The report estimates that more than half of the world’s top 15 pharmaceutical companies will face material challenges over the coming years. “The scale of revenue at risk means companies must increasingly rely on the strength of their pipelines and next-generation assets to offset losses and remain competitive,” said George El-Helou, Strategic Intelligence Analyst at GlobalData.
The exposure is sharper in oncology, where many drugs are embedded in standard treatment pathways, leading to faster and deeper erosion once alternatives enter the market. As a result, pharmaceutical companies are intensifying lifecycle management efforts, including formulation changes, new delivery formats, label expansions and follow-on therapies.
Next-generation assets, including improved biologics and novel mechanisms of action, are expected to play a larger role as exclusivity periods shorten. “Companies that deploy early portfolio planning and lifecycle strategies will be better placed to protect revenues,” El-Helou said.