Crude oil may hit $110, India's import basket could touch $130 in 10 days: SBI Research
The report outlined three possible phases for crude oil prices, depending on geopolitical developments and the restoration of global supplies
- Oct 12, 2026,
- Updated Oct 12, 2026 6:16 PM IST
Global crude oil prices are unlikely to see a sharp decline in the near term, with Brent crude potentially rising to $110 per barrel and India's crude oil basket reaching $130 over the next 10 trading days, according to SBI Research.
In its Ecowrap report released on Monday, SBI Research said geopolitical tensions and supply-side risks continued to put upward pressure on oil prices, complicating efforts to stabilise the Indian rupee.
"Elevated geopolitical and supply-side risks, Brent rises in forecasts from around $ 103.4 per bbl to $110 per bbl while the Indian basket increases from about $127 per bbl to $ 130 per bbl over the forecast horizon of 10 trading days," the report said.
The projections are based on a recurrent neural network forecasting model used by SBI Research to assess the likely movement in Brent and Indian crude oil prices.
"The recurrent neural network forecast for both dated Brent and Indian baskets show a rising trend. This indicates that sharp fall in oil prices is unlikely and a decline is possible only over a longer term," it said.
What SBI Research expects in the coming months
The report outlined three possible phases for crude oil prices, depending on geopolitical developments and the restoration of global supplies.
Before November 3, 2026, SBI Research expects Brent prices to remain largely rangebound, with a mild downward bias. It said diplomatic efforts and emergency oil stock releases could provide some relief, although implementation would take time.
The report cited the US Energy Information Administration's projection of an average Brent spot price of $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
For the period after November 3 through April 2027, SBI Research expects gradual easing if planned supply deliveries materialise.
It noted that US reserve deliveries were scheduled for November and December, while relief involving Russian diesel supplies extended until April 7.
Over a longer horizon, the report sees greater scope for lower prices if Gulf oil exports recover.
It cited EIA projections of $87 per barrel in the second quarter of 2027 and $74 in the fourth quarter, while clarifying that these were reference scenarios rather than SBI Research's own price targets.
Rising oil prices add to rupee pressure
The oil price outlook comes as the Reserve Bank of India has introduced several measures to contain the rupee's depreciation.
These include a special dollar-supply window for Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation, designed to shift approximately $10-12 billion in monthly dollar demand away from the open foreign exchange market.
Unlike previous interventions involving repayable currency swaps, the latest arrangement involves direct dollar sales from foreign exchange reserves.
SBI Research also highlighted tighter liquidity conditions, including an increase in banks' minimum daily cash reserve ratio maintenance requirement to 99% from 90% and a planned Rs 25,000 crore sale of government securities.
It estimated that the RBI's combined measures could withdraw more than Rs 1 lakh crore from the banking system over time.
The report said the government also needed to address structural issues affecting capital inflows, warning that RBI intervention alone could provide only limited support.
Despite these pressures, SBI Research maintained that India's foreign exchange reserves were adequate to meet contingencies, although it expects the balance of payments surplus to narrow to $55-60 billion in FY27.
"To sum up, India’s foreign exchange reserves even under the most stressed scenarios are more than adequate to meet any contingencies. However, BOP surplus now looks increasingly thinner at around $55-$60 bn in FY27," SBI Research said in its report.
Global crude oil prices are unlikely to see a sharp decline in the near term, with Brent crude potentially rising to $110 per barrel and India's crude oil basket reaching $130 over the next 10 trading days, according to SBI Research.
In its Ecowrap report released on Monday, SBI Research said geopolitical tensions and supply-side risks continued to put upward pressure on oil prices, complicating efforts to stabilise the Indian rupee.
"Elevated geopolitical and supply-side risks, Brent rises in forecasts from around $ 103.4 per bbl to $110 per bbl while the Indian basket increases from about $127 per bbl to $ 130 per bbl over the forecast horizon of 10 trading days," the report said.
The projections are based on a recurrent neural network forecasting model used by SBI Research to assess the likely movement in Brent and Indian crude oil prices.
"The recurrent neural network forecast for both dated Brent and Indian baskets show a rising trend. This indicates that sharp fall in oil prices is unlikely and a decline is possible only over a longer term," it said.
What SBI Research expects in the coming months
The report outlined three possible phases for crude oil prices, depending on geopolitical developments and the restoration of global supplies.
Before November 3, 2026, SBI Research expects Brent prices to remain largely rangebound, with a mild downward bias. It said diplomatic efforts and emergency oil stock releases could provide some relief, although implementation would take time.
The report cited the US Energy Information Administration's projection of an average Brent spot price of $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
For the period after November 3 through April 2027, SBI Research expects gradual easing if planned supply deliveries materialise.
It noted that US reserve deliveries were scheduled for November and December, while relief involving Russian diesel supplies extended until April 7.
Over a longer horizon, the report sees greater scope for lower prices if Gulf oil exports recover.
It cited EIA projections of $87 per barrel in the second quarter of 2027 and $74 in the fourth quarter, while clarifying that these were reference scenarios rather than SBI Research's own price targets.
Rising oil prices add to rupee pressure
The oil price outlook comes as the Reserve Bank of India has introduced several measures to contain the rupee's depreciation.
These include a special dollar-supply window for Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation, designed to shift approximately $10-12 billion in monthly dollar demand away from the open foreign exchange market.
Unlike previous interventions involving repayable currency swaps, the latest arrangement involves direct dollar sales from foreign exchange reserves.
SBI Research also highlighted tighter liquidity conditions, including an increase in banks' minimum daily cash reserve ratio maintenance requirement to 99% from 90% and a planned Rs 25,000 crore sale of government securities.
It estimated that the RBI's combined measures could withdraw more than Rs 1 lakh crore from the banking system over time.
The report said the government also needed to address structural issues affecting capital inflows, warning that RBI intervention alone could provide only limited support.
Despite these pressures, SBI Research maintained that India's foreign exchange reserves were adequate to meet contingencies, although it expects the balance of payments surplus to narrow to $55-60 billion in FY27.
"To sum up, India’s foreign exchange reserves even under the most stressed scenarios are more than adequate to meet any contingencies. However, BOP surplus now looks increasingly thinner at around $55-$60 bn in FY27," SBI Research said in its report.