Can India secure a place in quantum computing?

For decades, we’ve been told that the secret to digital safety is complexity. Add uppercase letters. Throw in numbers. Sprinkle special characters like #, %, and &. The more random the password looks, the safer your bank account, email, and identity supposedly become.

In classical computing, this logic has held firm. Modern encryption is protected by mathematics so vast that even the world’s fastest supercomputers would need billions, sometimes trillions, of years to crack it. Our financial systems, military communications, cryptocurrencies, and even WhatsApp messages rest on one assumption: that the math is too hard and the clock will run out before hackers ever succeed.

But the foundations of that digital trust are beginning to shift.

An emerging generation of machines—quantum computers—does not play by the rules of conventional computing. If a traditional computer is like a locksmith testing one key at a time, a quantum computer can explore countless possibilities simultaneously. Problems that would take today’s most powerful computers thousands of years could, in theory, be solved in hours or minutes. In that world, the strength of passwords may no longer matter.

The fear surrounding Q-Day—the expected moment when quantum computers become powerful enough to crack encryption algorithms that secure the internet—is one facet of the story. Quantum computing represents a much larger technological shift, one that could reshape industries ranging from healthcare and materials science to finance and energy. Here is how it works: Traditional computers process information step by step using bits that exist as either 0 or 1. Quantum computers use qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously, allowing them to process many possibilities at once instead of checking every option sequentially. Experts say this could help in areas such as drug discovery, battery design, logistics optimisation, climate modelling, and advanced financial simulations, tasks where the number of variables overwhelms conventional systems.

This has triggered an intense global push towards mastering the technology. IBM, Google, Microsoft, and Intel are racing to build stable quantum systems, while governments, from the United States to China, are treating quantum capabilities as strategic assets comparable to artificial intelligence or advanced semiconductor infrastructure. Having missed out on semiconductor manufacturing and artificial intelligence revolutions, India has launched a National Quantum Mission (NQM) to build domestic capabilities in quantum computing, communications, and sensing. Can it be the leader in this frontier technology?

The Quantum Power

“Over the last year-and-a-half, we’ve seen rapid gains in quantum computing in terms of the technology stack and algorithmic advances in multiple application areas. Today quantum computing is being applied in a ‘quantum-centric supercomputing’ architecture, meaning that quantum processors (QPUs) work alongside GPUs and CPUs to tackle scientific challenges better than any single computing approach,” says Amith Singhee, Director, IBM Research India, and CTO, IBM India and South Asia.

The $3.52 billion global quantum computing market is projected to cross $20.20 billion over the next five years, as per Markets & Markets Research. But the race is being driven less by immediate commercial returns and more by strategic implications. From cybersecurity and defence to intelligence gathering and technological sovereignty, governments are increasingly viewing quantum capabilities as a source of economic and geopolitical power.

India’s quantum ambitions, too, are no longer confined to research papers and laboratory experiments. “The country has moved from exploratory research to mission-mode execution. Our emphasis is on building sustainable and strategically relevant capabilities,” says a senior official from the Department of Science.

At the centre of this push is the `6,003 crore NQM, approved in 2023, which aims to build capabilities across quantum computing, communications, sensing, and advanced materials through 2031. The targets are ambitious: developing intermediate-scale quantum computers with 50–1,000 physical qubits, satellite-based secure quantum communications over 2,000 kms, inter-city quantum key distribution networks, quantum sensors, atomic clocks, and indigenous quantum devices.

To drive the programme, the government has established four Thematic Hubs hosted at Indian Institute of Science, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, and Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, bringing together 152 researchers across 43 institutions.

Anil Prabhakar, Principal Investigator at IIT Madras, says “there is a strong collaborative engagement between the four hubs and the technical institutes, research labs and universities that work with the hubs in a spoke-and-spike model.” IIT Madras hosts the hub for quantum communication and leads technical groups on quantum algorithms, sensing, and error correction.

The Reality Check

The global race is moving at an extraordinary speed. The US is relying heavily on private sector giants such as IBM, Google, and Microsoft to push quantum hardware and algorithms while China has invested aggressively in state-backed infrastructure and secure communications systems. Europe, meanwhile, is focusing on building long-term collaborative research ecosystems.

India is still in the capability-building phase. “Its position is best described as transitioning from exploratory research to structured capability building rather than operating at scale with commercial or near-commercial quantum systems,” says Sushovan Mukhopadhyay, Director Analyst at Gartner.

The gap is most visible in hardware. “The NQM targets the development of intermediate-scale quantum computers with 20-50 physical qubits in three years, 50-100 physical qubits in five years, and 50-1,000 physical qubits in eight years across platforms such as superconducting and photonic technologies,” says Jagdish Bhandarkar, Chief Disruption Officer at Deloitte South Asia. But building practical quantum systems requires specialised cryogenic infrastructure (engineered networks designed to store, transfer, and manage liquefied gases at ultra-low temperatures), advanced fabrication capabilities, precision control electronics, and deep semiconductor supply chains, areas where India still trails global leaders.

India has nevertheless started showing early signs of hardware progress, including work on a 6-qubit processor and private-sector milestones such as QpiAI’s 25-qubit system. “These are important steps, but global leaders are already operating at much larger qubit counts and focused on logical qubits, error correction, and scalable architectures,” adds Bhandarkar. “Commercially viable, fault-tolerant quantum machines are still not available at scale globally. So, India is not late, but it is early in the race. The next five years are crucial.”

The economics are equally challenging. A mid-range 20-100 qubit system could cost between $1.5 million and $15 million, while flagship enterprise-scale systems may cost $50 million to $100 million.

Building on Strengths

Analysts say India may not necessarily need to replicate the US or China playbook. According to Singhee of IBM the quantum stack includes hardware, software, algorithms, and applications. India has strong potential to lead in areas such as quantum algorithms, software, and application discovery, leveraging its strengths in mathematics, software engineering, and scientific talent.

That opportunity is already beginning to draw interest from India’s technology services industry, particularly around quantum-safe communications, cybersecurity, and enterprise applications.

For instance, Tech Mahindra has been working on quantum-safe communications since 2018, including implementing quantum-secured communication over a 100-km optical fibre network. “Today, we are working on developing algorithms for post-quantum cryptography as well as quantum machine learning applications across sectors such as banking, high-frequency trading, and advanced image processing,” says Nikhil Malhotra, Chief Innovation Officer and Global Head of AI & Emerging Tech, Tech Mahindra.

Although Indian start-ups are beginning to make progress, their scale remains far smaller than those in the US or China. India has more than 50 active quantum companies or start-ups, says Devroop Dhar, MD and CEO, Primus Partners. “The US is estimated to have more than 400 companies and China over 100 state-backed entities.” The patent gap is even wider, with the US filing more than 100,000 quantum-related patents and China over 56,000; India is in triple digits. “However, investor interest is rising sharply, with Indian quantum start-ups raising more than $40 million between January and October 2025, a 250% increase over the same period in 2024," he adds.

States too have started to compete for leadership in the sector. Andhra Pradesh is positioning Amaravati as a future Quantum Valley and partnering with IBM to bring an IBM Quantum System Two to the state. Karnataka, meanwhile, has announced a `1,000 crore Quantum Mission aimed at creating a $20 billion quantum technology economy by 2035, alongside plans for a Quantum Hardware Park, prototyping facilities, and cloud-based Quantum-as-a-Service platforms.

International partnerships are also becoming central to India’s strategy. India and Japan recently signed a Letter of Intent on cooperation in quantum science and technology spanning research, industrial deployment, and applications. Japan has also expressed interest in building stronger linkages with Indian institutions through its broader network of quantum innovation hubs.

Talent Turnaround

Talent is emerging as one of the most critical battlegrounds in the global quantum race. Unlike conventional software development, quantum technologies sit at the intersection of physics, mathematics, computer science, materials engineering, and advanced hardware systems, making specialised expertise far harder to build at scale.

India has no shortage of experts in mathematics, physics, computer science, and engineering. “The key gap is not theoretical capability. It is interdisciplinary engineering depth spanning cryogenics, control electronics, fabrication, error correction, photonics, cybersecurity, and applied quantum software,” says Bhandarkar. He adds India needs to build an entire quantum workforce pyramid, with researchers at the top, specialised quantum engineers in the middle, and quantum-literate enterprise professionals at scale.

Recognising that talent development is central to the NQM, the government has started expanding quantum education across institutions. Undergraduate minor and MTech programmes in quantum technologies are being introduced. The government has also selected 23 institutions to establish quantum teaching labs. Singhee says more than 208,000 students enrolled this year in IBM’s quantum computing MOOC launched in partnership with Indian Institute of Technology Madras.

But India should not try to win every part of the quantum race at once, says Mukhopadhyay. He adds India needs shared infrastructure and talent, including access to cryogenic systems, fabrication facilities, testbeds, and trained quantum engineers. Along with this, India should back a few selective hardware platforms rather than spreading funding across every possible architecture. The goal should be to build a deep quantum stack, not a thin layer of activity across too many areas.

India’s opportunity may therefore lie less in trying to replicate the US or China and more in steadily building on its strengths.