Market outlook 2024: Kotak Securities sees Nifty at 21,834 next year; suggests adding this segment to the portfolio
Says the benchmark Nifty index may hit 21,834-mark by December 2024, or less than 2 per cent upside from current levels
- Dec 18, 2023,
- Updated Dec 18, 2023 3:59 PM IST
Brokerage Kotak Securities believes the benchmark Nifty index may hit 21,834-mark by December 2024, indicating less than 2 per cent upside against the current level. It sees earnings per share (EPS) of the 50-share index at Rs 964 in FY24, Rs 1,080 in FY25 and Rs 1,213 in FY26. The current calendar year has been an eventful one for the domestic equity market with the Nifty surpassing the 20,000-mark in September for the first time and BSE Sensex surpassing 70,000-mark in December. On a year-to-date basis, the NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex gained around 18 per cent till date. On the other hand, broader indices the Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 indices surged 42 per cent and 46 per cent, respectively, YTD.
Overall, the ongoing up move in Indian markets is exceptional considering the adverse factors like Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas war, global inflation, rising crude prices, peak US 10-year yield and consumption slowdown.
Going ahead, Kotak Securities sees several factors in the next few months that will set the course of global and domestic markets in the first half of 2024. This includes the duration and magnitude of peak interest rates in the US and other developed economies will determine the strength of the global economy and investment sentiment in markets in 2024, likely revival in consumption in India may coincide with disruption becoming more visible in a few consumption sectors (autos, paints). The country is also leading to general elections and more state elections in mid-2024 (post-five state elections in November 2023).
Considering the present market conditions, Kotak Securities prefer mega-caps, noting their reasonable valuations and greater immunity in the event of any negative developments in the next few months.
“The mega-caps are in a bear market, with many large cap stocks delivering modest positive or moderate negative returns in the past 2-3 years. Several low-quality midcaps and small caps in general are in a bubble market, with the market attaching unrealistic narratives to many stocks,” the brokerage said adding it sees Nifty at 24,260 mark in the bull case scenario and 19,408 in the bear case scenario.
Also read: IRCTC shares rise 14%, hit 52-week high amid record turnover
Also read: Hot stocks on December 18: IREDA, Tata Steel, IRFC, YES Bank and more
Brokerage Kotak Securities believes the benchmark Nifty index may hit 21,834-mark by December 2024, indicating less than 2 per cent upside against the current level. It sees earnings per share (EPS) of the 50-share index at Rs 964 in FY24, Rs 1,080 in FY25 and Rs 1,213 in FY26. The current calendar year has been an eventful one for the domestic equity market with the Nifty surpassing the 20,000-mark in September for the first time and BSE Sensex surpassing 70,000-mark in December. On a year-to-date basis, the NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex gained around 18 per cent till date. On the other hand, broader indices the Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 indices surged 42 per cent and 46 per cent, respectively, YTD.
Overall, the ongoing up move in Indian markets is exceptional considering the adverse factors like Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas war, global inflation, rising crude prices, peak US 10-year yield and consumption slowdown.
Going ahead, Kotak Securities sees several factors in the next few months that will set the course of global and domestic markets in the first half of 2024. This includes the duration and magnitude of peak interest rates in the US and other developed economies will determine the strength of the global economy and investment sentiment in markets in 2024, likely revival in consumption in India may coincide with disruption becoming more visible in a few consumption sectors (autos, paints). The country is also leading to general elections and more state elections in mid-2024 (post-five state elections in November 2023).
Considering the present market conditions, Kotak Securities prefer mega-caps, noting their reasonable valuations and greater immunity in the event of any negative developments in the next few months.
“The mega-caps are in a bear market, with many large cap stocks delivering modest positive or moderate negative returns in the past 2-3 years. Several low-quality midcaps and small caps in general are in a bubble market, with the market attaching unrealistic narratives to many stocks,” the brokerage said adding it sees Nifty at 24,260 mark in the bull case scenario and 19,408 in the bear case scenario.
Also read: IRCTC shares rise 14%, hit 52-week high amid record turnover
Also read: Hot stocks on December 18: IREDA, Tata Steel, IRFC, YES Bank and more