'Nifty’s trend is turning': Experts on signs emerging that Nifty could break out, outperform global markets
India’s stock market may be on the verge of a major shift, with early indicators suggesting a reversal in its underperformance against global peers. According to market analysts, momentum is quietly turning in favour of the Nifty, even as leading world indices show signs of exhaustion.
- Nov 25, 2025,
- Updated Nov 25, 2025 9:29 PM IST
Indian equities may be on the cusp of a major trend shift as global markets lose steam and the Nifty quietly climbs up the performance rankings, according to Alok Jain, Founder of Weekend Investing. While India has trailed other international markets for most of the past year in dollar-adjusted terms, recent data suggests the tide may be turning.
For the past 14 months, the Nifty has been consolidating near its record highs—an extended pause that Jain notes has historically preceded strong multi-month rallies. “We’ve seen this before. The index takes a year or two to break past its highs, and once it does, a powerful trend typically follows,” he said.
But in global comparison, India has lagged sharply. Over the last one year, indices such as Korea’s Kospi (+44%), Germany’s DAX (+31%), the Hang Seng (+33%), Brazil (+28%), and Japan’s Nikkei (+24%) have far outperformed. Even the Nasdaq (+15%) and S&P 500 (+9%) have beaten India’s flat performance in dollar terms. The Nifty and Nifty 500 are the bottom performers in the one-year ranking.
Yet the momentum charts now show a reversal. Over the last three months, India climbed to the 6th and 8th positions. In the past month, the Nifty moved to rank 4. And in the last week, it has surged to rank 1 globally—while markets like Korea, Japan, Germany and Brazil, once top performers, have slipped to the bottom.
“This is a reasonable signal that something is changing,” Jain noted.
On Tuesday, the NSE Nifty50 ended at 25,884.80, slipping 74.7 points or 0.29 per cent, while the BSE Sensex closed at 84,587.01, down 313.7 points or 0.37 per cent. In the broader market, the Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.36 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.19 per cent. Sector-wise, Nifty Realty jumped 1.62 per cent and Nifty PSU Bank advanced 1.44 per cent, while Metal, Pharma, Healthcare and Chemicals indices also closed in the green.
Why global markets are falling — and India isn’t
A series of global concerns has triggered a broad selloff, Jain said. These include:
• US Fed uncertainty
Rate cut expectations swung wildly from 97% in mid-October to 22% by early November, before rising again after US unemployment jumped to 4.4%. With inconsistent inflation data and delays caused by the US government shutdown, markets remain confused and volatile.
• AI and tech sentiment collapsing
Despite blockbuster earnings from Nvidia, the stock fell 13.5% in a “sell on news” reaction, dragging sentiment across AI and semiconductor stocks. Big names like Michael Burry, Ray Dalio and David Einhorn have warned of bubble-like conditions reminiscent of 1929 and 2000.
• Japan’s monetary shift
Years of ultra-low rates enabled huge “yen carry trades”, where global investors borrowed cheaply in yen and invested in higher-yielding markets. Now, with expectations of rising Japanese yields, investors are unwinding these trades—leading to selling across global equities.
Despite these global pressures, India has held firm.
Jain highlights three key reasons:
• India isn’t deeply tied to the AI/semiconductor cycle, so global tech volatility has limited impact. • Domestic macros are stable—inflation is at an 8-year low and fiscal conditions are strong. • Foreign portfolio selling has slowed sharply, with FPI flows turning positive in October after four negative months.
Meanwhile, India’s midcap index is close to fresh all-time highs, signalling strong underlying earnings momentum.
Can India now outperform?
Jain believes India has a “relative advantage” as most leveraged positions and speculative excesses have already been flushed out during the long consolidation phase. “There is no major positive tailwind, but also no major negative headwind for India. That stability itself becomes a strength when global markets are sliding,” he said.
With domestic liquidity steady, inflation under control and corporate earnings resilient, analysts say the coming months may determine whether India finally breaks out and takes the lead in global performance after a year of lagging behind.
Indian equities may be on the cusp of a major trend shift as global markets lose steam and the Nifty quietly climbs up the performance rankings, according to Alok Jain, Founder of Weekend Investing. While India has trailed other international markets for most of the past year in dollar-adjusted terms, recent data suggests the tide may be turning.
For the past 14 months, the Nifty has been consolidating near its record highs—an extended pause that Jain notes has historically preceded strong multi-month rallies. “We’ve seen this before. The index takes a year or two to break past its highs, and once it does, a powerful trend typically follows,” he said.
But in global comparison, India has lagged sharply. Over the last one year, indices such as Korea’s Kospi (+44%), Germany’s DAX (+31%), the Hang Seng (+33%), Brazil (+28%), and Japan’s Nikkei (+24%) have far outperformed. Even the Nasdaq (+15%) and S&P 500 (+9%) have beaten India’s flat performance in dollar terms. The Nifty and Nifty 500 are the bottom performers in the one-year ranking.
Yet the momentum charts now show a reversal. Over the last three months, India climbed to the 6th and 8th positions. In the past month, the Nifty moved to rank 4. And in the last week, it has surged to rank 1 globally—while markets like Korea, Japan, Germany and Brazil, once top performers, have slipped to the bottom.
“This is a reasonable signal that something is changing,” Jain noted.
On Tuesday, the NSE Nifty50 ended at 25,884.80, slipping 74.7 points or 0.29 per cent, while the BSE Sensex closed at 84,587.01, down 313.7 points or 0.37 per cent. In the broader market, the Nifty Midcap 100 gained 0.36 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 added 0.19 per cent. Sector-wise, Nifty Realty jumped 1.62 per cent and Nifty PSU Bank advanced 1.44 per cent, while Metal, Pharma, Healthcare and Chemicals indices also closed in the green.
Why global markets are falling — and India isn’t
A series of global concerns has triggered a broad selloff, Jain said. These include:
• US Fed uncertainty
Rate cut expectations swung wildly from 97% in mid-October to 22% by early November, before rising again after US unemployment jumped to 4.4%. With inconsistent inflation data and delays caused by the US government shutdown, markets remain confused and volatile.
• AI and tech sentiment collapsing
Despite blockbuster earnings from Nvidia, the stock fell 13.5% in a “sell on news” reaction, dragging sentiment across AI and semiconductor stocks. Big names like Michael Burry, Ray Dalio and David Einhorn have warned of bubble-like conditions reminiscent of 1929 and 2000.
• Japan’s monetary shift
Years of ultra-low rates enabled huge “yen carry trades”, where global investors borrowed cheaply in yen and invested in higher-yielding markets. Now, with expectations of rising Japanese yields, investors are unwinding these trades—leading to selling across global equities.
Despite these global pressures, India has held firm.
Jain highlights three key reasons:
• India isn’t deeply tied to the AI/semiconductor cycle, so global tech volatility has limited impact. • Domestic macros are stable—inflation is at an 8-year low and fiscal conditions are strong. • Foreign portfolio selling has slowed sharply, with FPI flows turning positive in October after four negative months.
Meanwhile, India’s midcap index is close to fresh all-time highs, signalling strong underlying earnings momentum.
Can India now outperform?
Jain believes India has a “relative advantage” as most leveraged positions and speculative excesses have already been flushed out during the long consolidation phase. “There is no major positive tailwind, but also no major negative headwind for India. That stability itself becomes a strength when global markets are sliding,” he said.
With domestic liquidity steady, inflation under control and corporate earnings resilient, analysts say the coming months may determine whether India finally breaks out and takes the lead in global performance after a year of lagging behind.