Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 33 points; Key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian stock benchmark indices are poised to open little lower on Thursday even as sentiment improves on cooling domestic inflation, optimism over a US government reopening and easing trade worries. However, India's retail inflation slumping to a record low in October may provide some support.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 32.60 points, or 0.13 per cent, down at 25,953.60, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Thursday. Stocks paused for breath on Thursday as the US Congress voted to end the longest government shutdown on record. KOSPI and Hang Seng edged lower, while Nikkei was seen flat.

Expectations of continued weekly derivatives expiry boosted sentiment in the segment, said Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "We expect markets to maintain their positive bias, supported by the ongoing earnings season, constructive progress on the India–US trade deal, and improving global cues," he said.

Wall Street's main indices were mixed on Wednesday with the Dow notching a record-high close. The S&P 500 climbed 0.06 per cent to end the session at 6,850.92 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.26 per cent to 23,406.46 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.68 per cent to 48,254.82 points.

Oil prices fell for a second day on Thursday as an industry report showing rising crude inventories in the US, the world's biggest crude consumer, reinforced concerns that global supply is more than ample to meet current fuel demand. Brent crude futures fell 0.03 per cent, to $62.69 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude 0.09 per cent to $58.44 a barrel.

The yen wallowed near a record low versus the euro and a nine-month trough to the dollar on Thursday after Japan's new premier said she wants the central bank to go slow on interest rate hikes. The Japanese finance minister reminded traders the government was watching closely in a prelude to possible intervention in the market.

Beyond the key performing sectors such as metal, banking, and auto, renewed interest is also visible in IT, pharma, and energy, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants are advised to focus on selective stock opportunities in line with the ongoing rotational sectoral trend, preferring large-cap and large mid-cap names for long positions," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,750.03 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,127.12 crore on a net-net basis.  

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The market is showing a continuation of the uptrend, which supports further upward movement from the current levels, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities. "For trend-following traders, 25,775/84,300 and 20-day SMA or 25,700/84,000 would act as a key support zone. As long as the market is trading above this, the bullish sentiment may continue."

On the higher side, the market could move up to 26,000/84,800. Further upside may also push the index up to 26,100/85,000. On the flip side, if the market falls below the 20-day SMA or below 25,700/84,000, the sentiment could change. Below this level, traders may consider exiting their long positions, Chauhan adds.

This market action indicates an uptrend continuation pattern, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. "The underlying short-term trend of Nifty remains positive. The next upside targets to be watched around 26,100-26,200 levels for the next few sessions. Immediate support is placed at 25,700 levels," he said.  

Nifty Bank outlook

For the Nifty Bank, the 57,900–57,800 zone will serve as immediate support. A breach below 57,800 could extend the decline toward 57,400, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "Conversely, the 58,500–58,600 zone remains a critical resistance, and a sustained breakout above 58,600 could drive it towards 59,000 levels in the short term."

Nifty Bank is expected to maintain a positive bias and move towards the all-time high. A decisive move above this level could open the door for further upside towards 59,000 in the coming weeks, said Bajaj Broking. "On the downside, the lower band of the consolidation range at 57,300–57,100, which coincides with the recent breakout zone and the 20-day EMA."