Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 160 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to start the week on a strong note on Monday after three consecutive weeks of losses, buoyed by foreign fund inflows and prospects of further interest rate cuts next year. Minutes of the RBI's December policy meeting showed that a potential moderation in economic growth next year.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 159.50 points, or 0.61 per cent, down at 26,189.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian share markets rose on Monday tracking tech-driven gains. Nikkei and Hang Seng jumped nearly 2 per cent each, while Hang Seng also gained in the early trade.

"We expect markets to continue their recovery while trading within a broader range, supported by improving foreign institutional investor flows, a marginal recovery in the rupee, and supportive global cues," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

US stocks closed higher on Friday after a rocky start to the week. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 183.04 points, or 0.38 per cent, to 48,134.89, the S&P 500 rose 59.74 points, or 0.88 per cent, to 6,834.50 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 301.26 points, or 1.31 per cent, to 23,307.62.

The dollar was otherwise steady on a basket of currencies at 98.725, having gained 0.3 per cent on Friday. Silver was again the star in commodities, reaching a fresh record at $67.48 per ounce and bringing gains for the year to almost 134 per cent. Gold was up 0.6 per cent on the day at $4,362 an ounce.

Oil prices gained after the US intercepted a Venezuelan oil tanker over the weekend, and was pursuing another one in what would be the third such operation in less than two weeks. Brent firmed 0.7 per cent to $60.88 a barrel, while US crude rose 0.7 per cent to $56.89 per barrel.

Given the mixed macro backdrop and ongoing currency-related uncertainties, a cautious yet constructive approach is warranted, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants may continue to focus on large caps and select large-cap midcaps. Selective opportunities may also emerge in other sectors on a stock-specific basis," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,830.89 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,722.89 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs withdrew about Rs 17,823 crore from Indian equities in the first half of December.

The sustained FII selling with the high trade deficit, contributed significantly to the depreciation of the rupee in 2025, turning worst performing Asian currency, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. "With India’s GDP growth improving steadily and corporate earnings growth indicating and uptrend in the coming quarters, FIIs are likely to turn net buyers in 2026."  

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The current market texture is range bound. For the bulls now, 26,000/85,000 would act as an immediate breakout zone. If it succeeds in trading above this level, then it could rally to 26,200/85,600, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting the index up to 26,300–26,350/85900-86,100. On the flip side, 25,850/84,500 would act as a key support zone for traders. Below this level, the market could retest 25,700–25,600/84,000-83,700," he adds.

Nifty displayed resilience and staged a steady recovery in the latter part of the week. This price action highlights renewed buying interest near key support zones and suggests that the broader trend remains intact despite short-term consolidation. It continues to trade above key moving averages, reinforcing the broader bullish undertone, said Choice Broking,

"On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at 26,000, followed by 26,200 and 26,400. On the downside, support is seen at 25,900 and then 25,800, with a break below 25,700 likely to attract additional selling pressure. Given the current market structure, a buy-on-dips strategy remains appropriate, though traders should maintain strict stop-losses due to prevailing volatility," it adds.  

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a doji candle which remained enclosed inside previous session price range It remains resilient, with buying emerging on declines—supported by notable strength in PSU banks and steady participation from private banks. The index may consolidate and form a base in the range of 58500-60100 in the coming weeks, said Bajaj Broking.

"A strength above current week’s high of 59,500 will open further upside towards the recent all time high of 60,100 levels in the coming weeks. Key support is placed at 58,300-58,600 levels, being the confluence of the 50 day EMA and recent breakout area. Overall sentiment stays upbeat, and any dip into these support zones may act as healthy retracements," it adds.

The 58,700–58,600 zone emerges as a crucial support area, aligning with the previous swing low, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "On the higher side, the 59,400–59,500 band is likely to act as a strong resistance zone. A convincing and sustained move above 59,500 could pave the way for a swift upside move toward the 60,200 level in the near term."