Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 35 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open little changed on Monday on caution over foreign fund outflows and thin year-end trading volumes, while investors focus on fresh developments over negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Trading volumes across the globe usually remain thin during the end of year due to Christmas and New Year holidays.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 34.80 points, or 0.13 per cent, down at 26,095, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stocks were mostly up, seen at six-week highs on Monday. KOSPI surged 1.75 per cent, while Hang Seng gained nearly a per cent. Nikkei was seen marginally down.

"Investors shall track India’s Industrial Production data to be released on Monday. We expect Indian equities to trade in a narrow range amid lack of triggers, tracking the macro indicators and institutional flows," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Wall Street ended a light-volume post-Christmas session nearly unchanged on Friday as all three major US stock indexes closed nominally lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 20.19 points, or 0.04 per cent, to 48,710.97, the S&P 500 lost 2.11 points, or 0.03 per cent, to 6,929.94 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 20.21 points, or 0.09 per cent, to 23,593.10.

Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Monday as investors weighed Middle East tensions that could disrupt supply, while a major hurdle remains in the Russia–Ukraine peace talks. Brent crude futures rose 57 cents or 0.94 per cent to $61.21 per barrel by 0112 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 54 cents or 0.95 per cent to $57.28.

The dollar index was 0.08 per cent lower at 97.953, on track for a 9.7 per cent drop for the year, its steepest since 2017. Silver climbed above the $80-per-ounce-mark for the first time before sliding sharply lower in volatile trading, while platinum and palladium also fell sharply after hitting all-time highs. Gold eased but has repeatedly breached record highs this year.

With liquidity conditions remaining muted and key macro cues awaited, markets are likely to stay range-bound in the near term. Investors may continue to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders are advised to remain stock-specific, trail stop-losses on profitable positions, and avoid aggressive leverage amid expected volatility."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 317.56 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,772.56 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs sold Rs 22,130 worth of Indian stocks in December 2025, contributing to a total outflow of Rs 1,58,407 crore for 2025.

The sustained selling by FIIs have contributed significantly to the sharp depreciation in rupee this year, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. "Improvement in fundamentals are likely to attract net FII inflows in 2026. Robust GDP growth and prospects of improvement in corporate earnings in 2026 augur well for positive FII flows in 2026."  

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Nifty50 formed a Doji candlestick pattern on weekly charts, indicating indecisiveness between the bulls and the bears. We are of the view that the short-term market texture is weak, but a fresh sell-off is possible only after the dismissal of 26,000/85,000 or the 20-day SMA, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

Below this, the market could retest the level of the 50-day SMA or 25,900/84,700. Further downside may continue, potentially dragging the index to 25,800/84,300. On the upside, a move above 26,200/85,600 could lead to a bounce back towards 26,250–26,350/85,800-86,100, he adds.

Nifty continues to trade above its key moving averages—the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs—reinforcing the prevailing bullish undertone and confirming strength in the broader trend. As long as the index sustains above the 26,000–25,800 immediate support zone, market sentiment is expected to remain constructive with a positive bias, said Choice Broking.

"On the upside, immediate resistance is placed near 26,200, followed by 26,500. On the downside, support is seen at 26,000 and then 25,800; a decisive break below 25,800 could invite short-term selling pressure. Given the current market structure, a 'buy-on-dips' strategy remains appropriate, though traders should continue to maintain strict stop-losses amid ongoing volatility," it adds.  

Nifty Bank outlook

The 59,400–59,500 zone proved to be a formidable resistance for Nifty Bank, as it failed to decisively close above this zone. Nifty Bank traded sideways, before selling pressure dragged it lower. Adding to the weakness, it closed below its 20-day EMA, indicating deterioration in short-term trend strength, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the zone of 58,800-58,700 will act as crucial support for Nifty Bank. Any sustained move below the 58,700 level could lead to it extending its weakness further down towards the 58,400 level, followed by 58,000. On the upside, the zone of 59,300-59,400 will act as a strong resistance for Nifty Bank," he adds.

"Nifty Bank formed a bearish candlestick pattern with a lower high and a lower low signaling profit booking for the second session in a row. We expect the index to extend consolidation and form a base in the range of 58500-60100 in the coming weeks," said Bajaj Borking.

A strength above last two week’s high of 59,500 will open upside towards the recent all time high of 60,100 levels in the coming weeks. The entire up move of the last 2 months is well channelled signalling sustained demand at elevated levels. Key support is placed at 58,300-58,600 levels, being the confluence of the 50 days EMA and recent breakout area, adds.