Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 6 pt; key levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open marginally higher on Wednesday after four sessions of losses, although worries over foreign fund outflows could cap the advance. The upcoming quarterly earnings season and the US-India trade deal cues are set to be the key drivers for equities in the near term.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 6.20 points, or 0.02 per cent, down at 26,125, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asian stock edged lower on Wednesday. Hang Seng was down more than half a per cent, while KOSPI was also down.

US stocks slumped on Tuesday as all three indexes dipped into negative territory in a light-volume pre-holiday session in a subdued ending to a volatile year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked 94.87 points, or 0.20 per cent, to 48,367.06. The S&P 500 shed 9.51 points, or 0.14 per cent, to 6,896.23 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 55.27 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 23,419.08.

Markets will watch out for December Auto sales numbers and the pre-quarterly business updates beginning in the first week of January, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Overall, we expect markets to remain sideways with selective buying amid thin trading volumes due to New Year holidays in several global markets."

The US dollar held steady on Wednesday but was headed for its biggest annual drop since 2017 as interest rate cuts, fiscal worries and erratic trade policies under US President Donald Trump cast a shadow on currency markets in 2025. The dollar index was at 98.228, holding onto its overnight gains.

Oil prices slipped more than 10 per cent in 2025, with Brent heading for its longest stretch of annual losses ever, as supply outpaced demand in a year marked by wars, higher tariffs and OPEC+ output and sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela. The March contract, which expires on Wednesday, fell 6 cents to $61.27 a barrel.

With global cues remaining mixed and trading volumes subdued, participants are likely to stay in a wait-and-watch mode in search of the next directional trigger, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "In the interim, a stock-specific approach remains preferable, with banking, auto and metal stocks continuing to display relative strength."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 3,844.02 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 6,159.81 crore on a net-net basis.  

Nifty50 and Sensex outlook

The intraday rebound highlights buying interest emerging at lower levels, suggesting a demand zone around the 25,850–25,900 region and indicating attempts at base formation despite overall subdued sentiment, said Amruta Shinde, Technical & Derivative Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

"Immediate resistance is placed in the 26,050–26,100 zone, while key supports are seen at 25,750–25,800. With the index still trading below the psychological 26,000 mark, a cautious trading strategy remains advisable, with heightened emphasis on capital protection and strict stop-loss discipline," he said.

"We are of the view that the current market texture is non-directional; perhaps traders are waiting for a breakout on either side. On the higher side, 26,000/85,000 could be the crucial resistance zone for the bulls. Above this level, the market could bounce back to 26,100-26,150/85,300-85,500," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

On the flip side, below 25,870/84,500, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below this level, the market could slip to 25,800-25,750/84,200-84,000. For traders, the current market texture is non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be an ideal strategy for day traders, he said.  

Nifty Bank outlook

The previous swing high zone of 59,400-59,500 will act as an immediate resistance for Nifty Bank, said Sudeep Shah, Vice President of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "Any sustained move above the 59,500 level could lead to a pullback move in the Index until 59,800 level, followed by 60,100. On the downside, the previous swing low zone of 58,700-58,600 will act as a strong support".

Nifty Bank is likely to stay in a consolidation mode and gradually form a base within the 58,500–60,100 range over the coming weeks. A decisive breakout above the past two weeks’ high of 59,500 which is also intermediate resistance could open the door for a renewed upside toward the recent all-time high near 60,100 in the upcoming trading sessions ahead, said Bajaj Broking.

"The sharp rally seen over the last two months continues to remain well-contained within a rising price channel, underscoring sustained demand even at elevated levels. On the downside, strong support is placed in the 58,300–58,600 zone, aligning with the 50-day EMA and the prior breakout area. Holding above this support band would keep the broader trend positive," it said.