Sensex, Nifty next week: Investors eye India’s Current Account Deficit, US GDP growth data for guidance
This week, India’s Government Budget Value, External Debt, Current Account Deficit and F&O series expiry, are major events that will be watched closely by Dalal Street for the road ahead.
- Jun 23, 2024,
- Updated Jun 23, 2024 2:01 PM IST
The stock markets ended the last week with marginal gains amid concerns over slow monsoon. The coming week is likely to see some volatility with scheduled F&O series expiry on June 27 as traders will be balancing their positions going ahead for the next series.
While on economic data front, investors will be eyeing the Government Budget Value, External Debt, Current Account Deficit (CAD), Infrastructure output, scheduled to be release on June 28. India reported a Rs 2.1 lakh crore budget deficit in April 2024, the first month of the 2024-25 fiscal year, compared to Rs 2.1 lakh crore a year ago. It represents 12.5 percent of the government’s projection for the current financial year, compared to 7.5 percent in the same period last year.
US market data: On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world’s largest economy the US, starting with Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on June 24 followed by Redbook, CB Consumer Confidence data on June 25, while new home sales, building permits final data will be released on June 26.
The investors will be keenly waiting for the US GDP Growth Rate and Initial Jobless Claims, which will be announced on June 27, followed by the Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income, and Personal Spending data set to come out on June 28.
Foreign investments: Sunil Damania, Chief Investment Officer at MojoPMS, said that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have altered their position in the equity market following hopes of market stability post the 2024 election results, and have injected Rs 23,786 crore since June 10. “There are three primary reasons for this positive inflow. First, the continuity of the government assures ongoing reforms. Second, the Chinese economy is decelerating, as evidenced by a 12 percent decline in copper prices over the past month. Third, certain block deals in the market have been eagerly taken up by FPIs,” he said.
Damania added, these FPI inflows are concentrated in a select few stocks rather than being widespread across the market or sectors. “We believe that FPI inflows will remain constrained due to the high valuations currently commanded by the Indian equity market. Additionally, FPIs are no longer the primary market influencers, as robust domestic inflows mitigate the impact of FPI outflows. Consequently, FPI outflows are no longer significant market events,” he said.
Nifty Outlook: Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities said the Nifty ended lower in a highly volatile session on June 21. However, it rose for three weeks in a row to record its highest weekly close even as it fell on June 21. At close, Nifty was down 0.28 percent or 65.9 points at 23,501.
“Nifty formed an engulfing bear like pattern on June 21 for the second time in three days. On weekly charts, it made a spinning top like pattern after a rise, suggesting a possible halt in the up move. Nifty may find the resistance of 23,667 tough to pierce in the near term while 23,290 could offer support,” Jasani said.
Bank Nifty: Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities said the Bank Nifty index witnessed a volatile trading session but ended on a flat note, highlighting the evident tussle between buyers and sellers. “The immediate resistance is placed at 52,000, where the highest open interest is built up on the call side. The index needs to surpass this mark to continue its upward movement. On the downside, the lower end support is placed at 51,000, where the highest open interest is built up on the put side. Dips towards this support level should be viewed as an ideal buying opportunity,” Shah said.
The stock markets ended the last week with marginal gains amid concerns over slow monsoon. The coming week is likely to see some volatility with scheduled F&O series expiry on June 27 as traders will be balancing their positions going ahead for the next series.
While on economic data front, investors will be eyeing the Government Budget Value, External Debt, Current Account Deficit (CAD), Infrastructure output, scheduled to be release on June 28. India reported a Rs 2.1 lakh crore budget deficit in April 2024, the first month of the 2024-25 fiscal year, compared to Rs 2.1 lakh crore a year ago. It represents 12.5 percent of the government’s projection for the current financial year, compared to 7.5 percent in the same period last year.
US market data: On the global front, investors would be eyeing few economic data from world’s largest economy the US, starting with Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index on June 24 followed by Redbook, CB Consumer Confidence data on June 25, while new home sales, building permits final data will be released on June 26.
The investors will be keenly waiting for the US GDP Growth Rate and Initial Jobless Claims, which will be announced on June 27, followed by the Core PCE Price Index, Personal Income, and Personal Spending data set to come out on June 28.
Foreign investments: Sunil Damania, Chief Investment Officer at MojoPMS, said that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have altered their position in the equity market following hopes of market stability post the 2024 election results, and have injected Rs 23,786 crore since June 10. “There are three primary reasons for this positive inflow. First, the continuity of the government assures ongoing reforms. Second, the Chinese economy is decelerating, as evidenced by a 12 percent decline in copper prices over the past month. Third, certain block deals in the market have been eagerly taken up by FPIs,” he said.
Damania added, these FPI inflows are concentrated in a select few stocks rather than being widespread across the market or sectors. “We believe that FPI inflows will remain constrained due to the high valuations currently commanded by the Indian equity market. Additionally, FPIs are no longer the primary market influencers, as robust domestic inflows mitigate the impact of FPI outflows. Consequently, FPI outflows are no longer significant market events,” he said.
Nifty Outlook: Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities said the Nifty ended lower in a highly volatile session on June 21. However, it rose for three weeks in a row to record its highest weekly close even as it fell on June 21. At close, Nifty was down 0.28 percent or 65.9 points at 23,501.
“Nifty formed an engulfing bear like pattern on June 21 for the second time in three days. On weekly charts, it made a spinning top like pattern after a rise, suggesting a possible halt in the up move. Nifty may find the resistance of 23,667 tough to pierce in the near term while 23,290 could offer support,” Jasani said.
Bank Nifty: Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities said the Bank Nifty index witnessed a volatile trading session but ended on a flat note, highlighting the evident tussle between buyers and sellers. “The immediate resistance is placed at 52,000, where the highest open interest is built up on the call side. The index needs to surpass this mark to continue its upward movement. On the downside, the lower end support is placed at 51,000, where the highest open interest is built up on the put side. Dips towards this support level should be viewed as an ideal buying opportunity,” Shah said.