Adani Ports shares surge post Q2 earnings; key factors behind the rise, targets

Shares of Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ) rose 4.59 per cent in Thursday's trade to hit a high of Rs 1,839.80. The uptick came a day after the Adani Group firm announced its second-quarter (Q2 FY27) earnings.

Several brokerages maintained their positive view on the stock, citing stronger-than-expected earnings.

Macquarie said Adani Ports' September-quarter EBITDA exceeded Bloomberg consensus estimates, prompting the management to raise its FY27 revenue and EBITDA guidance by 2 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively.

Overall port volumes rose around 15 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to 142 million metric tonnes (MMT), led by international operations, where volumes increased 2.4 times YoY. Domestic volume growth improved marginally to 3.5 per cent YoY at 118 MMT, with Mundra volumes rising 8 per cent while non-Mundra volumes remained flat.

Domestic EBITDA margin remained steady at 72.5 per cent. International EBITDA increased 3.4 times YoY, taking the international margin to a record high of around 48 per cent, compared with approximately 42 per cent in Q1 FY27 and 24 per cent in Q2 FY26.

Following strong execution in the first half of FY27, management raised its revenue guidance for the full financial year to Rs 44,000-46,000 crore, implying 14-19 per cent YoY growth. EBITDA guidance was increased to Rs 26,000-27,000 crore, indicating 14-18 per cent growth.

The company also raised its FY27 capital expenditure guidance by Rs 3,000 crore to Rs 15,000-17,000 crore, with Rs 10,500 crore already deployed in the first half of FY27.

Macquarie maintained its 'Outperform' rating on the stock with a 12-month target price of Rs 2,100.

Jefferies said Adani Ports remained a high-conviction play on India's trade and logistics transformation, with its port assets supporting free cash flow (FCF) growth of over 20 per cent over FY26-31 estimates.

The brokerage maintained its 'Buy' rating and raised its target price to Rs 2,180 from Rs 2,160 earlier.

JP Morgan reiterated its 'Overweight' rating on Adani Ports and raised its price target to Rs 2,076 from Rs 2,000 earlier, citing higher EBITDA estimates. The brokerage said APSEZ remained its preferred pick in its coverage.

Kotak Institutional Equities revised its estimates towards the higher end of the company's revised EBITDA guidance range. The brokerage arrived at a fair value of Rs 2,075, while retaining its 'Buy' rating.

Nuvama Institutional Equities also noted that Adani Ports reported a decent Q2 print. It estimates the company will deliver a revenue, EBITDA and profit after tax (PAT) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16 per cent, 15 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively, over FY26-29.

The brokerage values the company at 16 times its December 2028 estimated enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA), arriving at a December 2027 target price of Rs 2,170, up from Rs 2,000 earlier. It retained its 'Buy' rating and noted that the stock was trading at 14.1 times its FY28 estimated EV/EBITDA.