Apex Frozen, Avanti Feeds, Coastal Corp: Target prices for 3 shrimp stocks as Ecuador stares at El Niño
EU market access and falling raw material prices are reviving farming sentiment, setting the stage for margin-accretive volume recovery, InCred Equities said.
- Feb 23, 2026,
- Updated Feb 23, 2026 12:52 PM IST
InCred Equities in a fresh note on agribusinesses said the world’s largest shrimp exporting country, Ecuador, is facing prospects of El Niño, which is positive for Indian shrimp exporters such as Avanti Feeds Ltd, Apex Frozen Foods Ltd and Coastal Corporation Ltd. InCred noted that shrimp pricing is determined at the margin — and Ecuador sets the margin. If Ecuador reduces biological exposure, the forward biomass visibility tightens.
"Buyers build in risk premium. Discounting eases. The floor price moves up even before actual shortage emerges. India, with more distributed farming exposure and lower hydropower dependency, stands to capture the realisation uplift. This is not a demand story. It is a supply discipline story — and such a story tends to last longer," it said.
The brokerage comments came as global agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the World Meteorological Organization, are tracking rapid subsurface Pacific Ocean warming — a classic precursor to El Niño. InCred noted that forecast probabilities now tilt towards its emergence in late 2026.
"In the commodities space, weather only matters when it changes producer behaviour. And in shrimp biz, behaviour shifts before production collapses. The market begins to price the probability curve — not the event itself. Ecuador is the world’s largest shrimp exporter and sets the marginal global price. But over half of its farms sit in flood-prone zones (as per the National Chamber of Aquaculture), while the sector is deeply dependent on hydroelectric power stability. Flooding risks biomass loss; drought risks power cuts. Intensive shrimp farming cannot tolerate either," InCred said.
For Avanti Feeds, the development is seen as double tailwinds. EU market access and falling raw material prices are reviving farming sentiment, setting the stage for margin-accretive volume recovery, InCred Equities said adding that A consumer-facing, high-growth engine (pet-food optionality) could add Rs200 per share by FY28F, fully funded through strong internal cash generation.
In the case of Apex Frozen, the expanded and audited EU facility is now operational, unlocking access to a high-margin, premium market, InCred Equities said. It said the company's net debt declined from Rs 167 crore in FY21 to Rs 41 crore in 1HFY26, with long-term debt nearly nil—enhancing financial flexibility
In the case of Coastal Corporation, the company’s largest shrimp processing facility is seen positioned to deliver the operating leverage it was designed for. The long-delayed ethanol unit is now operational, providing the company with its first stable domestic cash-flow engine, InCred Equities said. The brokerage has 'Add' rating on all three shrimp stocks, with targets of Rs 1,130 on Avanti Feeds, Rs 520 on Apex Frozen and Rs 81 on Coastal Corporation.
InCred Equities in a fresh note on agribusinesses said the world’s largest shrimp exporting country, Ecuador, is facing prospects of El Niño, which is positive for Indian shrimp exporters such as Avanti Feeds Ltd, Apex Frozen Foods Ltd and Coastal Corporation Ltd. InCred noted that shrimp pricing is determined at the margin — and Ecuador sets the margin. If Ecuador reduces biological exposure, the forward biomass visibility tightens.
"Buyers build in risk premium. Discounting eases. The floor price moves up even before actual shortage emerges. India, with more distributed farming exposure and lower hydropower dependency, stands to capture the realisation uplift. This is not a demand story. It is a supply discipline story — and such a story tends to last longer," it said.
The brokerage comments came as global agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the World Meteorological Organization, are tracking rapid subsurface Pacific Ocean warming — a classic precursor to El Niño. InCred noted that forecast probabilities now tilt towards its emergence in late 2026.
"In the commodities space, weather only matters when it changes producer behaviour. And in shrimp biz, behaviour shifts before production collapses. The market begins to price the probability curve — not the event itself. Ecuador is the world’s largest shrimp exporter and sets the marginal global price. But over half of its farms sit in flood-prone zones (as per the National Chamber of Aquaculture), while the sector is deeply dependent on hydroelectric power stability. Flooding risks biomass loss; drought risks power cuts. Intensive shrimp farming cannot tolerate either," InCred said.
For Avanti Feeds, the development is seen as double tailwinds. EU market access and falling raw material prices are reviving farming sentiment, setting the stage for margin-accretive volume recovery, InCred Equities said adding that A consumer-facing, high-growth engine (pet-food optionality) could add Rs200 per share by FY28F, fully funded through strong internal cash generation.
In the case of Apex Frozen, the expanded and audited EU facility is now operational, unlocking access to a high-margin, premium market, InCred Equities said. It said the company's net debt declined from Rs 167 crore in FY21 to Rs 41 crore in 1HFY26, with long-term debt nearly nil—enhancing financial flexibility
In the case of Coastal Corporation, the company’s largest shrimp processing facility is seen positioned to deliver the operating leverage it was designed for. The long-delayed ethanol unit is now operational, providing the company with its first stable domestic cash-flow engine, InCred Equities said. The brokerage has 'Add' rating on all three shrimp stocks, with targets of Rs 1,130 on Avanti Feeds, Rs 520 on Apex Frozen and Rs 81 on Coastal Corporation.