BEL tops Nifty FY26 EPS upgrade list; Eternal, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors lead downgrades
Bharat Electronics (up 7.1 per cent), Bharti Airtel (6.6 per cent), Hindalco (5.8 per cent), Adani Ports (4.6 per cent), and Mahindra & Mahindra (4.4 per cent) led the upgrades.
- Jun 2, 2025,
- Updated Jun 2, 2025 1:23 PM IST
Nifty constituents such as defence maker Bharat Electronics (BEL), telecom giant Bharti Airtel Ltd and aluminium maker Hindalco led FY26 earnings upgrades at the 50-pack index, while stocks such as online food aggregator Eternal Ltd (erstwhile Zomato), private lender IndusInd Bank and upstream company ONGC and JLR-owner Tata Motors Ltd led downgrades at Nifty, data compiled by MOFSL showed.
Nifty EPS for FY25 came in at Rs 1,013, which was up a mere 1 per cent YoY over a high base of FY24, as the earnings normalized and tracked the revenue trend. Nifty EPS grew 24 per cent YoY in the preceding financial year.
The Nifty EPS estimate for FY26 has been cut by 1.9 per cent to Rs 1,135, largely owing to State Bank of India (SBI), ONGC, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, and TCS. FY27 EPS was also reduced by 1.1 per cent to Rs 1,314 from Rs 1,328) due to downgrades in SBI, ONGC, IndusInd Bank, TCS, and Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL).
For the ongoing financial year, Bharat Electronics (up 7.1 per cent), Bharti Airtel (6.6 per cent), Hindalco (5.8 per cent), Adani Ports (4.6 per cent), and Mahindra & Mahindra (4.4 per cent) led the upgrades.
The top earnings downgrades for FY26 include Eternal (down 53.9 per cent), IndusInd Bank (down 45.6 per cent), ONGC (down 13.4 per cent), Tata Motors (down 11.6 per cent), and JSW Steel (down 8.5 per cent).
"The past two financial years experienced an interesting interplay of revenue and earnings growth, driven by global macros," MOFSL said.
March was the fourth successive quarter of single-digit growth for the Nifty-50, teh first time since the pandemic (June 2020).
For the quarter, Nifty delivered a 3 per cent YoY PAT growth against MOFSL's estimate of 2 per cent. . Five Nifty companies – Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, and HDFC Bank – contributed 137 per cent of the incremental YoY accretion in earnings. Conversely, IndusInd Bank, ONGC, SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Grasim contributed adversely to the earnings.
"The 4QFY25 earnings fared better than expectations; however, forward earnings revisions continue to exhibit weakness, with downgrades surpassing upgrades. The market has rebounded notably over the last two months, completely reversing its YTD decline. Currently, the Nifty is trading 4.7 per cent higher in CY25YTD. With this rally, the Nifty trades at 21.8 times FY26E earnings, near its LPA of 20.7 times," MOFSL said.
MOFSL said while near-term challenges such as global macros, trade wars, and earnings will keep the market volatile and jittery, the medium-to-long-term growth narrative for India remains intact.
"Our model portfolio stance remains unchanged, with a distinct bias towards large-caps and domestic plays, given the current volatile backdrop. We are OW on BFSI, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Healthcare, IT, and Telecom, while we are UW on Oil & Gas, Cement, Automobiles, Real Estate, and Metals," it said.
Nifty constituents such as defence maker Bharat Electronics (BEL), telecom giant Bharti Airtel Ltd and aluminium maker Hindalco led FY26 earnings upgrades at the 50-pack index, while stocks such as online food aggregator Eternal Ltd (erstwhile Zomato), private lender IndusInd Bank and upstream company ONGC and JLR-owner Tata Motors Ltd led downgrades at Nifty, data compiled by MOFSL showed.
Nifty EPS for FY25 came in at Rs 1,013, which was up a mere 1 per cent YoY over a high base of FY24, as the earnings normalized and tracked the revenue trend. Nifty EPS grew 24 per cent YoY in the preceding financial year.
The Nifty EPS estimate for FY26 has been cut by 1.9 per cent to Rs 1,135, largely owing to State Bank of India (SBI), ONGC, IndusInd Bank, Tata Motors, and TCS. FY27 EPS was also reduced by 1.1 per cent to Rs 1,314 from Rs 1,328) due to downgrades in SBI, ONGC, IndusInd Bank, TCS, and Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL).
For the ongoing financial year, Bharat Electronics (up 7.1 per cent), Bharti Airtel (6.6 per cent), Hindalco (5.8 per cent), Adani Ports (4.6 per cent), and Mahindra & Mahindra (4.4 per cent) led the upgrades.
The top earnings downgrades for FY26 include Eternal (down 53.9 per cent), IndusInd Bank (down 45.6 per cent), ONGC (down 13.4 per cent), Tata Motors (down 11.6 per cent), and JSW Steel (down 8.5 per cent).
"The past two financial years experienced an interesting interplay of revenue and earnings growth, driven by global macros," MOFSL said.
March was the fourth successive quarter of single-digit growth for the Nifty-50, teh first time since the pandemic (June 2020).
For the quarter, Nifty delivered a 3 per cent YoY PAT growth against MOFSL's estimate of 2 per cent. . Five Nifty companies – Bharti Airtel, Hindalco, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, and HDFC Bank – contributed 137 per cent of the incremental YoY accretion in earnings. Conversely, IndusInd Bank, ONGC, SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Grasim contributed adversely to the earnings.
"The 4QFY25 earnings fared better than expectations; however, forward earnings revisions continue to exhibit weakness, with downgrades surpassing upgrades. The market has rebounded notably over the last two months, completely reversing its YTD decline. Currently, the Nifty is trading 4.7 per cent higher in CY25YTD. With this rally, the Nifty trades at 21.8 times FY26E earnings, near its LPA of 20.7 times," MOFSL said.
MOFSL said while near-term challenges such as global macros, trade wars, and earnings will keep the market volatile and jittery, the medium-to-long-term growth narrative for India remains intact.
"Our model portfolio stance remains unchanged, with a distinct bias towards large-caps and domestic plays, given the current volatile backdrop. We are OW on BFSI, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Healthcare, IT, and Telecom, while we are UW on Oil & Gas, Cement, Automobiles, Real Estate, and Metals," it said.