Bharti Airtel shares: Why Morgan Stanley raised target price by 20%?
The Bharti Airtel stock has historically done well ahead of tariff hike events, after which it goes into a consolidation phase.
- Dec 16, 2025,
- Updated Dec 16, 2025 9:11 AM IST
Morgan Stanley in a fresh note on Bharti Airtel upped its target price on the telecom stock by 20 per cent to Rs 2,435 from Rs 2,035 earlier, suggesting an 'Overweight' stance from 'Equal-weight' earlier. The foreign brokerage said the stock should be able to maintain its current one-year forward multiple, with strong Ebitda growth driving upside to the share price. It noted that the Bharti Airtel stock has historically done well ahead of tariff hike events, after which it goes into a consolidation phase.
"We see a tariff hike in Q1FY27, and the stock should start to reflect this in the coming months," it said.
Morgan Stanley said the industry repair phase may continue in the near term. For the medium term, it sees multiple levers for organic growth in average revenue per user (ARPU) to reach mid-single digits, which it said should drive India business Ebitda growth by double digits.
"We see sustainable return ratio profile improvement to 20 per cent-plus," it said.
Morgan Stanley said it sees room for ARPUs to grow by mid-single digits, even without any further tariff support post 2026. Also, it sees Ebitda to rise by high single digits to low double digits in the core mobile wireless business. The foreign brokerage expects 12 per cent-plus growth for the overall India business, with non-mobile businesses' EBITDA seen growing at a CAGR of 20 per cent.
Key drivers for the stock are better monetisation of data, a mix shift to postpaid, and value-added services such as international roaming.
Morgan Stanley said India is in a sweet spot in capital investment cycle. "We think capex is likely to be below peak levels of FY24 in absolute terms, while as a percentage of revenues it could fall meaningfully against the previous cycle as the company is in a monetisation phase. Premium multiples to be sustained as return ratios for core business seen reaching 20 per cent by FY28," it said.
"We raise our scenario values by 14-21 per cent, and our PT by 20 per cent. Our core India business EBITDAal assumptions grow 2-4 per cent, implied one-year forward multiples drive 12-13 per cent increases, and value of subs/associates drive a 3 per cent increase," it said.
Morgan Stanley in a fresh note on Bharti Airtel upped its target price on the telecom stock by 20 per cent to Rs 2,435 from Rs 2,035 earlier, suggesting an 'Overweight' stance from 'Equal-weight' earlier. The foreign brokerage said the stock should be able to maintain its current one-year forward multiple, with strong Ebitda growth driving upside to the share price. It noted that the Bharti Airtel stock has historically done well ahead of tariff hike events, after which it goes into a consolidation phase.
"We see a tariff hike in Q1FY27, and the stock should start to reflect this in the coming months," it said.
Morgan Stanley said the industry repair phase may continue in the near term. For the medium term, it sees multiple levers for organic growth in average revenue per user (ARPU) to reach mid-single digits, which it said should drive India business Ebitda growth by double digits.
"We see sustainable return ratio profile improvement to 20 per cent-plus," it said.
Morgan Stanley said it sees room for ARPUs to grow by mid-single digits, even without any further tariff support post 2026. Also, it sees Ebitda to rise by high single digits to low double digits in the core mobile wireless business. The foreign brokerage expects 12 per cent-plus growth for the overall India business, with non-mobile businesses' EBITDA seen growing at a CAGR of 20 per cent.
Key drivers for the stock are better monetisation of data, a mix shift to postpaid, and value-added services such as international roaming.
Morgan Stanley said India is in a sweet spot in capital investment cycle. "We think capex is likely to be below peak levels of FY24 in absolute terms, while as a percentage of revenues it could fall meaningfully against the previous cycle as the company is in a monetisation phase. Premium multiples to be sustained as return ratios for core business seen reaching 20 per cent by FY28," it said.
"We raise our scenario values by 14-21 per cent, and our PT by 20 per cent. Our core India business EBITDAal assumptions grow 2-4 per cent, implied one-year forward multiples drive 12-13 per cent increases, and value of subs/associates drive a 3 per cent increase," it said.