BPCL, HPCL, IOC, ONGC, GAIL, Oil India shares in focus amid Iran war with US and Israel
OMCs may struggle to pass on higher costs, said Emkay Global. The brokerage said the best protection may come from upstream stocks such as ONGC and Oil India, it said.
- Mar 2, 2026,
- Updated Mar 2, 2026 8:00 AM IST
Shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) namely Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) could be under pressure on Monday amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel across the Middle East. Upstream stocks such as Oil & Natural Gas Corpn Ltd (ONGC), GAIL and Oil India may remain firm. This follows a 10 per cent surge in Brent crude to $80 a barrel in over-the-counter trade, according to Reuters.
OMCs may struggle to pass on higher costs, said Emkay Global. The brokerage said the best protection may come from upstream stocks such as ONGC and Oil India, though some benefits could be offset by windfall taxes, it said. The US-Israel joint strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several senior IRGC, intelligence, and national security officials. Iran has since retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US bases across UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, shifting the situation from a threat to an active military exchange. JM Financial said its scenario analysis suggests that Hormuz disruption could push prices above $90 per barrel, while a broader regional conflict could take crude beyond $100 a barrel. For India, the impact is direct, every $1 rise in crude increases the annual import bill by $2 billion, putting pressure on the trade balance. "Upstream energy and defence may see relative support, while oil-sensitive sectors such as OMCs, paints, tyres, aviation and chemicals face margin pressure. Crude remains the key macro variable for Indian equities under the current escalation scenario," it said. Equirus Securities said markets do not price wars linearly. If escalation threatens the Strait of Hormuz, the premium becomes structural rather than proportional, it said. "Even partial disruption risk could embed a $20–$40 a barrel geopolitical premium, reopening a pathway toward $95–$110+, well beyond the mechanical impact of Iran’s barrels alone," said in a note.
Shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) namely Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOC) could be under pressure on Monday amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel across the Middle East. Upstream stocks such as Oil & Natural Gas Corpn Ltd (ONGC), GAIL and Oil India may remain firm. This follows a 10 per cent surge in Brent crude to $80 a barrel in over-the-counter trade, according to Reuters.
OMCs may struggle to pass on higher costs, said Emkay Global. The brokerage said the best protection may come from upstream stocks such as ONGC and Oil India, though some benefits could be offset by windfall taxes, it said. The US-Israel joint strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several senior IRGC, intelligence, and national security officials. Iran has since retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US bases across UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, shifting the situation from a threat to an active military exchange. JM Financial said its scenario analysis suggests that Hormuz disruption could push prices above $90 per barrel, while a broader regional conflict could take crude beyond $100 a barrel. For India, the impact is direct, every $1 rise in crude increases the annual import bill by $2 billion, putting pressure on the trade balance. "Upstream energy and defence may see relative support, while oil-sensitive sectors such as OMCs, paints, tyres, aviation and chemicals face margin pressure. Crude remains the key macro variable for Indian equities under the current escalation scenario," it said. Equirus Securities said markets do not price wars linearly. If escalation threatens the Strait of Hormuz, the premium becomes structural rather than proportional, it said. "Even partial disruption risk could embed a $20–$40 a barrel geopolitical premium, reopening a pathway toward $95–$110+, well beyond the mechanical impact of Iran’s barrels alone," said in a note.