Brent crude oil price at $30? Possible in 2027 as outlook worsens, says JPMorgan
Crude oil prices: JPMorgan said even as oil demand is set to expand by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbd) to 105.50 mbd in 2025, and by 1.2 mbd in 2027, global supply could still outpace consumption.
- Nov 25, 2025,
- Updated Nov 25, 2025 3:21 PM IST
JPMorgan, in its outlook for Calendars 2026 and 2027, said Brent crude may average around $58 a barrel in 2026 and ease to the low $50s in 2027. If surpluses mounted, the brokerage projected Brent could average about $42 a barrel in 2027, with a scenario of prices slipping to nearly $30 a barrel by the year-end. The foreign brokerage said that even as oil demand is set to expand by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbd) to 105.50 mbd in 2025, and by 1.2 mbd in 2027, global supply could still outpace consumption. JPMorgan expected supply growth to run at roughly three times the pace of demand in both 2025 and 2026, before moderating to roughly one-third of that pace in 2027.
Half of these supply gains will be driven by non-OPEC+ producers, supported by robust offshore developments and continued momentum in global shale," it said,
JPMorgan said the offshore sector, once considered cyclical and cost-intensive, has transformed into a dependable long-term driver of non-OPEC oil production. It is set to deliver 0.5 mbd of growth in 2025, with further increases of 0.9 mbd in 2026 and 0.4 mbd in 2027.
"Positioned at the very low end of the global cost curve, and with nearly all FPSOs through 2029 already sanctioned, the sector offers exceptional visibility on new offshore barrels, making future completions highly assured," it said adding that global shale remains the most agile and adaptable source of oil liquids supply.
"Although US shale growth is slowing, its productivity and capital efficiency continue to underpin global supply flexibility. Outside the US, Argentina's Vaca Muerta has emerged as a dynamic new frontier- scalable, low-cost, and increasingly Integrated with export infrastructure," JPMorgan said.
In 2025, global shale supply rose 0.8 mbd, and with oil prices in the mid-$50 range, combined global shale output is projected to increase by 0,4 mbd in 2026 and 0.5 mbd in 2027.
"As a result, global observable inventories have surged by 1.5 mbd so far this year, with the bulk of the build-1 mbd--comprised of oil-on-water and stocks in China. We do not discriminate against the location of the inventories, treating the entire build as a net addition to global supply that will carry forward into 2026," it said.
Absent any intervention, JPMorgan said the surplus is projected to climb to 2.8 mbd in 2026, before easing slightly to 2.7 mbd in 2027.
"Under these conditions, Brent prices are likely to slip below $60 in 2026, drop into the low $50s by the final quarter, and close the year with a $4 handle. The outlook worsens in 2027, as mounting surpluses drive Brent to an average of $42, with prices sliding into the $30s by year end. The magnitude suggested by market imbalances is unlikely to fully materialize in practice. Adjustments are expected on both the supply and demand sides; however, the greatest burden of rebalancing will almost certainly fall on supply".
JPMorgan said the market will find equilibrium through a combination of rising demand and a mix of production cuts.
JPMorgan, in its outlook for Calendars 2026 and 2027, said Brent crude may average around $58 a barrel in 2026 and ease to the low $50s in 2027. If surpluses mounted, the brokerage projected Brent could average about $42 a barrel in 2027, with a scenario of prices slipping to nearly $30 a barrel by the year-end. The foreign brokerage said that even as oil demand is set to expand by 0.9 million barrels per day (mbd) to 105.50 mbd in 2025, and by 1.2 mbd in 2027, global supply could still outpace consumption. JPMorgan expected supply growth to run at roughly three times the pace of demand in both 2025 and 2026, before moderating to roughly one-third of that pace in 2027.
Half of these supply gains will be driven by non-OPEC+ producers, supported by robust offshore developments and continued momentum in global shale," it said,
JPMorgan said the offshore sector, once considered cyclical and cost-intensive, has transformed into a dependable long-term driver of non-OPEC oil production. It is set to deliver 0.5 mbd of growth in 2025, with further increases of 0.9 mbd in 2026 and 0.4 mbd in 2027.
"Positioned at the very low end of the global cost curve, and with nearly all FPSOs through 2029 already sanctioned, the sector offers exceptional visibility on new offshore barrels, making future completions highly assured," it said adding that global shale remains the most agile and adaptable source of oil liquids supply.
"Although US shale growth is slowing, its productivity and capital efficiency continue to underpin global supply flexibility. Outside the US, Argentina's Vaca Muerta has emerged as a dynamic new frontier- scalable, low-cost, and increasingly Integrated with export infrastructure," JPMorgan said.
In 2025, global shale supply rose 0.8 mbd, and with oil prices in the mid-$50 range, combined global shale output is projected to increase by 0,4 mbd in 2026 and 0.5 mbd in 2027.
"As a result, global observable inventories have surged by 1.5 mbd so far this year, with the bulk of the build-1 mbd--comprised of oil-on-water and stocks in China. We do not discriminate against the location of the inventories, treating the entire build as a net addition to global supply that will carry forward into 2026," it said.
Absent any intervention, JPMorgan said the surplus is projected to climb to 2.8 mbd in 2026, before easing slightly to 2.7 mbd in 2027.
"Under these conditions, Brent prices are likely to slip below $60 in 2026, drop into the low $50s by the final quarter, and close the year with a $4 handle. The outlook worsens in 2027, as mounting surpluses drive Brent to an average of $42, with prices sliding into the $30s by year end. The magnitude suggested by market imbalances is unlikely to fully materialize in practice. Adjustments are expected on both the supply and demand sides; however, the greatest burden of rebalancing will almost certainly fall on supply".
JPMorgan said the market will find equilibrium through a combination of rising demand and a mix of production cuts.