Brent oil hits $119 level! Nomura says Russian oil reprieve for India a drop in the ocean
Russia accounted for one-fifth of the 5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of India’s crude oil imports in February. Official data as of December 2025 showed Russia accounting for 25 per cent of total imports.
- Mar 9, 2026,
- Updated Mar 9, 2026 8:53 AM IST
Iran war: With Brent oil prices soaring 29 per cent in Monday’s trade, Nomura said in a fresh note that the Russian oil reprieve for India is a drop in the ocean. The US has granted India a 30-day waiver from March 5 to April 4 to import Russian crude oil “already stranded at sea”, relaxing the conditions attached to the recent relief from the 25 per cent tariff penalty for its Russian oil imports.
Nomura’s Sonal Varma said Russia accounted for one-fifth of the 5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of India’s crude oil imports in February. Official data as of December 2025 showed Russia accounting for 25 per cent of total imports, lower than last year’s 35 per cent. The brokerage noted that Indian refiners have bought over 10 million barrels of Russian crude oil. Around 15 million barrels are currently in India’s maritime vicinity, another 7 million are near Singapore, and tankers in the Mediterranean Sea and the Suez Canal are also heading for India, all of which should be eligible for the US reprieve.
"The amount of crude oil available (4 days of India’s crude oil demand) is helpful, but not a game changer," she said.
Crude oil prices surged last week, gaining more than 22 per cent on a weekly basis, marking the largest rise since early 2022. On Monday along, Brent futures hit a high of $119.46, up 28.8 per cent, as Kuwait and Iraq started reducing oil output amid fears of prolonged disruption to shipping via the Strait of Hormuz.
For India, the oil price shocks heightens macroeconomic vulnerability at a time when fiscal and monetary policy headroom appears limited. According to RBI estimates, a 10 per cent increase in crude oil could raise inflation by 30 basis points and reduce GDP growth by 15 basis points.
Earlier Qatari energy minister Al-Kaabi predicted crude oil could surge to $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if tanker traffic remains unable to move through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.
The rise in crude oil prices has important implications for Indian equities. Historically, and particularly in recent months, crude oil and the Nifty 50 have shown an inverse relationship. This inverse correlation is significant for India, given that the country is a major importer of crude oil. Rising oil prices tend to increase the import bill, put pressure on inflation, and weigh on market sentiment, often translating into volatile equities market, said Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research, SAMCO Securities.
The combination of commodity cycle rotation, an elevated gold-crude oil ratio, and rising geopolitical risks suggests crude oil may be entering a stronger phase of the broader commodity cycle, Sheth said.
Iran war: With Brent oil prices soaring 29 per cent in Monday’s trade, Nomura said in a fresh note that the Russian oil reprieve for India is a drop in the ocean. The US has granted India a 30-day waiver from March 5 to April 4 to import Russian crude oil “already stranded at sea”, relaxing the conditions attached to the recent relief from the 25 per cent tariff penalty for its Russian oil imports.
Nomura’s Sonal Varma said Russia accounted for one-fifth of the 5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of India’s crude oil imports in February. Official data as of December 2025 showed Russia accounting for 25 per cent of total imports, lower than last year’s 35 per cent. The brokerage noted that Indian refiners have bought over 10 million barrels of Russian crude oil. Around 15 million barrels are currently in India’s maritime vicinity, another 7 million are near Singapore, and tankers in the Mediterranean Sea and the Suez Canal are also heading for India, all of which should be eligible for the US reprieve.
"The amount of crude oil available (4 days of India’s crude oil demand) is helpful, but not a game changer," she said.
Crude oil prices surged last week, gaining more than 22 per cent on a weekly basis, marking the largest rise since early 2022. On Monday along, Brent futures hit a high of $119.46, up 28.8 per cent, as Kuwait and Iraq started reducing oil output amid fears of prolonged disruption to shipping via the Strait of Hormuz.
For India, the oil price shocks heightens macroeconomic vulnerability at a time when fiscal and monetary policy headroom appears limited. According to RBI estimates, a 10 per cent increase in crude oil could raise inflation by 30 basis points and reduce GDP growth by 15 basis points.
Earlier Qatari energy minister Al-Kaabi predicted crude oil could surge to $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if tanker traffic remains unable to move through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.
The rise in crude oil prices has important implications for Indian equities. Historically, and particularly in recent months, crude oil and the Nifty 50 have shown an inverse relationship. This inverse correlation is significant for India, given that the country is a major importer of crude oil. Rising oil prices tend to increase the import bill, put pressure on inflation, and weigh on market sentiment, often translating into volatile equities market, said Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives & Research, SAMCO Securities.
The combination of commodity cycle rotation, an elevated gold-crude oil ratio, and rising geopolitical risks suggests crude oil may be entering a stronger phase of the broader commodity cycle, Sheth said.