BSE shares: Market share loss likely on Thursday expiry shift; stock price targets
BSE share price: With the recent rally, the BSE stock trades at estimated FY27 EPS of 53 times, significantly higher than its historic average as well as that of its global peers.
- Jun 18, 2025,
- Updated Jun 18, 2025 8:16 AM IST
BSE Ltd has announced the shift in the expiry of weekly contracts of Sensex from Tuesday to Thursday starting September 1. Brokerages such as MOFSL said the shift should lead to a loss in market share for BSE in terms of premium turnover, which stood at 22.6 per cent in May 2025.
Stock anlaysts noted that after the implementation of new F&O regulations effective March 2025, in weeks where markets were open on all five days, the BSE share of each day was in the 18-22 per cent range.
"Currently, each of the days accounts for 18-22 per cent share in the week’s total premium volume. BSE has a market share of 8 per cent on Wednesday/Thursday and 21 per cent/24 per cent/38 per cent on Friday/Monday/Tuesday. Overlaying the current trends on the day-wise share in volumes for the week, we expect a market share loss of 350-400bp for BSE," MOFSL said.
Goldman Sachs suggested a Neutral rating on BSE, trimming its target price on the stock to Rs 2,430 from Rs 2,490. This brokerage expects BSE to lose 300 basis points loss of market shares due to moving expiry day to Thursday. It sees risk reward balanced, as the foreign brokerage cut its FY26 EPS estimates by 2 per cent.
Jefferies has suggested a 'Hold' on BSE with a target price of Rs 2,900, saying there could be 5-10 per cent impact on volumes in the near term. This brokerage, however, believes that the stock exchange's ability to build liquidity in longer term contracts could offset the impact.
"We reduce our premium average daily turnover (ADTO) estimates for FY26/FY27 to Rs 13,700 crore/Rs 15,700 crore from Rs 15,500 crore/Rs 19,000 crore earlier. This is translating into a reduction of 9%/12% in our FY26/27 earnings estimates," MOFSL said.
With the recent rally, the BSE stock trades at estimated FY27 EPS of 53 times, significantly higher than its historic average as well as that of its global peers. MOFSL downgrade its rating on BSE to 'Neutral' with a revised target price of Rs 2,300, as it feels the impact of these measures will be visible from September 2025 when the new contracts kick in.
BSE Ltd has announced the shift in the expiry of weekly contracts of Sensex from Tuesday to Thursday starting September 1. Brokerages such as MOFSL said the shift should lead to a loss in market share for BSE in terms of premium turnover, which stood at 22.6 per cent in May 2025.
Stock anlaysts noted that after the implementation of new F&O regulations effective March 2025, in weeks where markets were open on all five days, the BSE share of each day was in the 18-22 per cent range.
"Currently, each of the days accounts for 18-22 per cent share in the week’s total premium volume. BSE has a market share of 8 per cent on Wednesday/Thursday and 21 per cent/24 per cent/38 per cent on Friday/Monday/Tuesday. Overlaying the current trends on the day-wise share in volumes for the week, we expect a market share loss of 350-400bp for BSE," MOFSL said.
Goldman Sachs suggested a Neutral rating on BSE, trimming its target price on the stock to Rs 2,430 from Rs 2,490. This brokerage expects BSE to lose 300 basis points loss of market shares due to moving expiry day to Thursday. It sees risk reward balanced, as the foreign brokerage cut its FY26 EPS estimates by 2 per cent.
Jefferies has suggested a 'Hold' on BSE with a target price of Rs 2,900, saying there could be 5-10 per cent impact on volumes in the near term. This brokerage, however, believes that the stock exchange's ability to build liquidity in longer term contracts could offset the impact.
"We reduce our premium average daily turnover (ADTO) estimates for FY26/FY27 to Rs 13,700 crore/Rs 15,700 crore from Rs 15,500 crore/Rs 19,000 crore earlier. This is translating into a reduction of 9%/12% in our FY26/27 earnings estimates," MOFSL said.
With the recent rally, the BSE stock trades at estimated FY27 EPS of 53 times, significantly higher than its historic average as well as that of its global peers. MOFSL downgrade its rating on BSE to 'Neutral' with a revised target price of Rs 2,300, as it feels the impact of these measures will be visible from September 2025 when the new contracts kick in.