Contract cancellations at TCS, Infosys, Wipro, ghost GDP and S&P 500 at 8K: Citrini scenarios
Written as a retrospective from 2028, the report noted that India had been exporting over $200 billion in IT services annually, the single largest contributor to the country’s current account surplus.
- Feb 24, 2026,
- Updated Feb 24, 2026 11:45 AM IST
Citrini Research, in a note titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” outlined a scenario in which contract cancellations at Tata Consultancy Services Ltd, Infosys Ltd and Wipro would accelerate through 2027. The note said the domestic IT services model had been built on a single value proposition: Indian developers cost a fraction of their American counterparts. However, it warned that the marginal cost of an AI coding agent could collapse to essentially the cost of electricity.
Written as a retrospective from 2028, the report noted that India had been exporting over $200 billion in IT services annually, the single largest contributor to the country’s current account surplus and a key offset to its persistent goods trade deficit.
“The rupee fell 18% against the dollar in four months as the services surplus that had anchored India’s external accounts evaporated. By Q1 2028, the IMF had begun ‘preliminary discussions’ with New Delhi,” it said.
Citrini Research also described a scenario in which by October 2026 the S&P 500 would flirt with the 8,000 level and the Nasdaq would cross 30,000. “The initial wave of layoffs due to human obsolescence began in early 2026, and they did exactly what layoffs are supposed to. Margins expanded, earnings beat, stocks rallied. Record-setting corporate profits were funneled right back into AI compute,” the note said, assuming it is written in June 2028.
The scenario envisaged strong headline numbers in the US economy, with nominal GDP repeatedly posting mid-to-high single-digit annualised growth. Real output per hour rose at rates not seen since the 1950s, driven by AI agents that do not sleep, take sick days or require health insurance.
“When cracks began appearing in the consumer economy, economic pundits popularized the phrase ‘Ghost GDP’: output that shows up in the national accounts but never circulates through the real economy. In every way AI was exceeding expectations, and the market was AI. The only problem… the economy was not,” it said.
The report, however, acknowledged that as of February 2026, the S&P 500 was near all-time highs and the negative feedback loops had not yet begun. “We are certain some of these scenarios won’t materialize. We’re equally certain that machine intelligence will continue to accelerate. The premium on human intelligence will narrow,” it said.
Citrini Research, in a note titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” outlined a scenario in which contract cancellations at Tata Consultancy Services Ltd, Infosys Ltd and Wipro would accelerate through 2027. The note said the domestic IT services model had been built on a single value proposition: Indian developers cost a fraction of their American counterparts. However, it warned that the marginal cost of an AI coding agent could collapse to essentially the cost of electricity.
Written as a retrospective from 2028, the report noted that India had been exporting over $200 billion in IT services annually, the single largest contributor to the country’s current account surplus and a key offset to its persistent goods trade deficit.
“The rupee fell 18% against the dollar in four months as the services surplus that had anchored India’s external accounts evaporated. By Q1 2028, the IMF had begun ‘preliminary discussions’ with New Delhi,” it said.
Citrini Research also described a scenario in which by October 2026 the S&P 500 would flirt with the 8,000 level and the Nasdaq would cross 30,000. “The initial wave of layoffs due to human obsolescence began in early 2026, and they did exactly what layoffs are supposed to. Margins expanded, earnings beat, stocks rallied. Record-setting corporate profits were funneled right back into AI compute,” the note said, assuming it is written in June 2028.
The scenario envisaged strong headline numbers in the US economy, with nominal GDP repeatedly posting mid-to-high single-digit annualised growth. Real output per hour rose at rates not seen since the 1950s, driven by AI agents that do not sleep, take sick days or require health insurance.
“When cracks began appearing in the consumer economy, economic pundits popularized the phrase ‘Ghost GDP’: output that shows up in the national accounts but never circulates through the real economy. In every way AI was exceeding expectations, and the market was AI. The only problem… the economy was not,” it said.
The report, however, acknowledged that as of February 2026, the S&P 500 was near all-time highs and the negative feedback loops had not yet begun. “We are certain some of these scenarios won’t materialize. We’re equally certain that machine intelligence will continue to accelerate. The premium on human intelligence will narrow,” it said.