Diwali 2025 stock picks: Axis Securities bullish on 9 shares, sees up to 23% upside
The top picks from Axis Securities are Kotak Mahindra Bank, Federal Bank, JSW Energy, Coforge, DOMS Industries, Chalet Hotels, Rainbow Children's Medicare, Minda Corp, and KEC International.
- Oct 10, 2025,
- Updated Oct 10, 2025 11:40 AM IST
Domestic brokerage firm Axis Securities has identified nine stocks that it believes can deliver handsome returns over the next year. In its Diwali Muhurat Picks note, the brokerage expressed optimism about India's domestic growth story and has recommended a "Buy on Dips" strategy for its chosen stocks with an investment horizon of over 12 months.
The top picks from Axis Securities are Kotak Mahindra Bank, Federal Bank, JSW Energy, Coforge, DOMS Industries, Chalet Hotels, Rainbow Children's Medicare, Minda Corp, and KEC International. The brokerage firm sees a potential upside of up to 23 per cent on these counters from their October 9 closing prices.
Market outlook: From volatility to opportunity Reflecting on the past year, Axis Securities noted that Samvat 2081 was a "challenging year" for the Indian equity market, which underperformed its global and emerging market peers for the first time since the pandemic era. The market endured a "roller coaster ride marked by extreme volatility," with the Nifty 50 correcting by 16 per cent between its September 2024 peak and February 2025 low. Despite a sharp rebound in the second half, the benchmark index delivered a "flattish return" of only 3.6 per cent since last Diwali.
A significant trend highlighted in the report is the structural shift towards domestic investment flows. "Indian investors demonstrated a proactive and unwavering belief in India's long-term growth narrative," the report stated. While Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) pulled out $19 billion, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) pumped in $74.9 billion over the same period, showcasing the "deepening maturity of India's investor base."
Looking ahead, Axis Securities believes the Indian economy is at an "inflexion point". It expects supportive fiscal and monetary measures, including rate cuts and a consumption boost, to drive growth. The firm anticipates a broad-based earnings recovery to commence from the third quarter of FY26, which could translate into double-digit market returns.
Top themes and stock ideas Axis Securities has identified five key themes for the upcoming year: a rebound in the credit growth cycle favouring private banks; discretionary consumption plays; capacity expansion in the power sector; an export recovery for midcap IT firms; and an asset-light model in the hospital sector.
Based on these themes, here are the nine stock recommendations:
Rainbow Children's Medicare Ltd: The brokerage has a 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 1,625, suggesting a potential upside of 23 per cent. Axis highlights the company's leadership in paediatric care and its scalable "asset-light hub-and-spoke model" as key strengths.
DOMS Industries Ltd: With a target price of Rs 3,110, Axis sees a 22 per cent upside. The firm believes the recent GST reforms on stationery will boost consumption, and the company's ongoing capacity expansion is on track to meet rising demand.
KEC International Ltd: The report pegs the target price at Rs 1,030, implying a 20 per cent upside. A healthy order book of Rs 34,409 crore and a substantial tender pipeline provide strong revenue visibility for the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) major.
Chalet Hotels Ltd: Axis Securities has set a target price of Rs 1,120, a potential upside of 19 per cent. The company's diversified portfolio and aggressive expansion pipeline are expected to drive growth.
Minda Corporation Ltd: The brokerage sees an upside of 19 per cent with a target price of Rs 690. Minda Corp's growth is expected to be driven by a focus on premium products, new technology, and strong capex plans.
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd: The target price is set at Rs 2,500, an upside of 17 per cent. Axis expects a healthy credit growth of 17 per cent CAGR over FY25-28 and an improving margin profile from Q3FY26 onwards.
The Federal Bank Ltd: With a target price of Rs 240, the potential upside is 16 per cent. The brokerage notes that the bank's net interest margins (NIMs) are set to bottom out and improve, with growth recovery visible from the second half of the fiscal year.
JSW Energy Ltd: Axis sees a 15 per cent upside with a target price of Rs 625. The company has a total locked-in power generation portfolio of 30.5 GW and a strong focus on renewable energy and storage solutions.
Coforge Ltd: The brokerage has set a target of Rs 1,980, implying a 15 per cent upside. An executable order book of $1.6 billion provides strong revenue visibility, and strategic acquisitions are set to enhance its operational capabilities.
Domestic brokerage firm Axis Securities has identified nine stocks that it believes can deliver handsome returns over the next year. In its Diwali Muhurat Picks note, the brokerage expressed optimism about India's domestic growth story and has recommended a "Buy on Dips" strategy for its chosen stocks with an investment horizon of over 12 months.
The top picks from Axis Securities are Kotak Mahindra Bank, Federal Bank, JSW Energy, Coforge, DOMS Industries, Chalet Hotels, Rainbow Children's Medicare, Minda Corp, and KEC International. The brokerage firm sees a potential upside of up to 23 per cent on these counters from their October 9 closing prices.
Market outlook: From volatility to opportunity Reflecting on the past year, Axis Securities noted that Samvat 2081 was a "challenging year" for the Indian equity market, which underperformed its global and emerging market peers for the first time since the pandemic era. The market endured a "roller coaster ride marked by extreme volatility," with the Nifty 50 correcting by 16 per cent between its September 2024 peak and February 2025 low. Despite a sharp rebound in the second half, the benchmark index delivered a "flattish return" of only 3.6 per cent since last Diwali.
A significant trend highlighted in the report is the structural shift towards domestic investment flows. "Indian investors demonstrated a proactive and unwavering belief in India's long-term growth narrative," the report stated. While Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) pulled out $19 billion, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) pumped in $74.9 billion over the same period, showcasing the "deepening maturity of India's investor base."
Looking ahead, Axis Securities believes the Indian economy is at an "inflexion point". It expects supportive fiscal and monetary measures, including rate cuts and a consumption boost, to drive growth. The firm anticipates a broad-based earnings recovery to commence from the third quarter of FY26, which could translate into double-digit market returns.
Top themes and stock ideas Axis Securities has identified five key themes for the upcoming year: a rebound in the credit growth cycle favouring private banks; discretionary consumption plays; capacity expansion in the power sector; an export recovery for midcap IT firms; and an asset-light model in the hospital sector.
Based on these themes, here are the nine stock recommendations:
Rainbow Children's Medicare Ltd: The brokerage has a 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 1,625, suggesting a potential upside of 23 per cent. Axis highlights the company's leadership in paediatric care and its scalable "asset-light hub-and-spoke model" as key strengths.
DOMS Industries Ltd: With a target price of Rs 3,110, Axis sees a 22 per cent upside. The firm believes the recent GST reforms on stationery will boost consumption, and the company's ongoing capacity expansion is on track to meet rising demand.
KEC International Ltd: The report pegs the target price at Rs 1,030, implying a 20 per cent upside. A healthy order book of Rs 34,409 crore and a substantial tender pipeline provide strong revenue visibility for the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) major.
Chalet Hotels Ltd: Axis Securities has set a target price of Rs 1,120, a potential upside of 19 per cent. The company's diversified portfolio and aggressive expansion pipeline are expected to drive growth.
Minda Corporation Ltd: The brokerage sees an upside of 19 per cent with a target price of Rs 690. Minda Corp's growth is expected to be driven by a focus on premium products, new technology, and strong capex plans.
Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd: The target price is set at Rs 2,500, an upside of 17 per cent. Axis expects a healthy credit growth of 17 per cent CAGR over FY25-28 and an improving margin profile from Q3FY26 onwards.
The Federal Bank Ltd: With a target price of Rs 240, the potential upside is 16 per cent. The brokerage notes that the bank's net interest margins (NIMs) are set to bottom out and improve, with growth recovery visible from the second half of the fiscal year.
JSW Energy Ltd: Axis sees a 15 per cent upside with a target price of Rs 625. The company has a total locked-in power generation portfolio of 30.5 GW and a strong focus on renewable energy and storage solutions.
Coforge Ltd: The brokerage has set a target of Rs 1,980, implying a 15 per cent upside. An executable order book of $1.6 billion provides strong revenue visibility, and strategic acquisitions are set to enhance its operational capabilities.