Down 75% from its peak, Adani Group stock sees fresh brokerage interest with strong upside

Adani Energy Solutions share price: From Gautam Adani's kitty, Adani Energy Solutions Ltd (formerly known as Adani Transmission Ltd) has drawn fresh brokerage interest from analysts lately, who are positive on the company citing a structural shift toward renewable energy amid the rising electricity demand.

Adani Energy Solutions is expected to witness a sharp acceleration in earnings, with Ebitda growth over FY26E–28E projected at 2.5–3 times the pace achieved during the past 3–4 years. Growth will be driven by the company’s core power transmission business and the rapidly scaling smart metering segment, said PL Capital.

In the power transmission segment, annual capitalization is expected to increase significantly to Rs 11,000–14,000 crore during FY26E–28E, supported by a strong order book of Rs777bn scheduled for commissioning over the next 4-5 years. Smart metering business offers significant growth potential, supported by a robust order book of 24.6mn meters and strong policy push from the government to reduce transmission and distribution (T&D) losses through large-scale smart meter deployment, it said.

Adani Energy has a footprint across 16 states with a cumulative transmission network of 27,901 circuit kilometres (ckm) and 1,18,175 MVA of transformation capacity, a testimony to its robust project execution capabilities and O&M excellence.  It entered the smart metering segment in FY23 and has since scaled up rapidly, securing orders for 24.6mn smart meters, said JM Financial.

Adani Group stocks have been hit hard ever since the dampening Hindenburg report, where the US-based short seller had accused the Gautam Adani led conglomerate entities for financial fraud irregularities and misinterpretations. Hindenburg shut its operations in January 2025, while Indian capital market regulator Sebi dismissed its allegations on Adani Group.

Shares of Adani Energy Solutions have tanked more than 75 per cent from its all time peak around Rs 4,105 in September 2022. Stock is currently sub-Rs 1,000 levels on Friday, commanding a total market capitalization of Rs 1.2 lakh crore. The stock had fallen around Rs 750-levels in February-March 2023.

Overall, Adani Energy's consolidated ebitda (ex-SCA) is expected to grow at 31 per cent CAGR over FY26E–28E, driven by 32 per cent, 9 per cent and 98 per cent growth in transmission, distribution and smart metering segments, along with incremental contribution from Service Concession Arrangement (SCA) income under Ind AS 115, says PL Capital.

"Adani Energy trades at 13 times FY28E ev/ebitda , a premium to peers trading at 9–11 times. The higher valuation reflects its stronger ebitda growth outlook, with a projected 31% CAGR (FY26E-28E), compared to low-teens growth for peers. We initiate coverage on Adani Energy Solutions with an ‘accumulate’ rating and assign a target of Rs1,090," it added.

"Adani Energy is strongly positioned to benefit from India’s T&D growth story and estimate its revenue, ebitda and profit would expand at a CAGR of 19 per cent, 15 per cent and 50 per cent over FY25–28E, respectively," JM said while initiating with a 'buy' and a target price of Rs 1,199. It has cited elevated leverage, foreign currency exposure, regulatory uncertainties are key risks.