F&O rollovers: FPIs add index shorts, HNIs go long on index & stock futures; what’s next?
Nuvama noted that September has historically been a softer month for Indian equities, with the Nifty closing lower in nearly 60 per cent of instances over the past decade, delivering average returns of 0.4 per cent.
- Aug 29, 2025,
- Updated Aug 29, 2025 8:18 AM IST
Futures & options rollover data suggests foreign institutional investors (FIIs( have significantly increased index shorts while clients (HNI & retail) continued building longs in both index and stock futures.
Data showed Nifty futures rollovers stood at 84 per cent against an average of 78 per cent in the last three series. Nifty futures will start the September series at higher open interest (OI) base of 41,400 crore (1.69 crore shares) against OI of Rs 40,800 crore (1.65 crore shares) seen at the start of August series.
On the expiry day, the rollover cost for Nifty was at around 50 basis points which was close to the previous day’s 52 basis points.
Market-wide futures open interest at the start of September series stands at Rs 4.99 lakh crore compared with Rs 4.95 lakh crore at the start of August series. Market-wide rollovers stood at 92 per cent, higher than the three-month average of 90 per cent.
Stock futures rollovers stands at 94 per cent, higher than the average rollovers of last three series at 92 per cent. Most frontline names saw their roll cost hovering around 55 bps with average increase in roll cost across names being 2-3 bps, Nuvama said.
FPI, client positionings Nuvama said FIIs have significantly added index shorts while they added went long on stock futures. In the case of index, their net shorts stood at 1,69,000 contracts against 1,38,000 short contracts at the start of August series. In the single stock futures, their net longs stood at 13,45,000 contracts against 13,39,000 net Long contracts (at start of August series.
The Client category (HNI & Retail) added longs in index while adding SSF longs. In index, their net longs stood at 1,28,000 contracts against 1,04,000 long contracts at the start of August series. In the single stock futures, their net longs stood at 22,10,000 contracts against 21,79,000 net long contracts at start of August series.
Key events to watch in Sept series IIFL Securities said the focus will shift to India’s GST committee meet. Also the GDP print will be closely monitored. The advent of festive season in the latter half of expiry may also have a bearing on sentiment, it said.
"Street will also follow the developments around India US tariff pact. US labour and inflation data for gauging clarity on soft-landing narrative and Fed’s policy path (with markets expecting a 25bps cut)," it said.
Where is stock market headed? Nuvama noted that September has historically been a softer month for Indian equities, with the Nifty closing lower in nearly 60 per cent of instances over the past decade, delivering average returns of 0.4 per cent. Nifty Bank has also displayed choppiness, with outcomes broadly balanced and negative returns of 1.2 per cent.
"The current setup suggests caution, with markets likely to remain range-bound, offering opportunities to both bulls and bears. In the near term, we expect Nifty to encounter resistance around 25,050, while 24,150 will act as a crucial support zone. Overall, while we don’t foresee significant downside pressure after weakness till 24,200, heightened volatility could make trading tricky for both sides," Nuvama said,
If Nifty first approaches the 24,200 zone, it could offer an attractive entry for bullish bets, with a protective stop loss of about 200 points, Nuvama said,
"Given the current market conditions we expect Nifty to face resistance near the 24,900 mark, while 24,200 will remain a key support level to watch," it said.
Futures & options rollover data suggests foreign institutional investors (FIIs( have significantly increased index shorts while clients (HNI & retail) continued building longs in both index and stock futures.
Data showed Nifty futures rollovers stood at 84 per cent against an average of 78 per cent in the last three series. Nifty futures will start the September series at higher open interest (OI) base of 41,400 crore (1.69 crore shares) against OI of Rs 40,800 crore (1.65 crore shares) seen at the start of August series.
On the expiry day, the rollover cost for Nifty was at around 50 basis points which was close to the previous day’s 52 basis points.
Market-wide futures open interest at the start of September series stands at Rs 4.99 lakh crore compared with Rs 4.95 lakh crore at the start of August series. Market-wide rollovers stood at 92 per cent, higher than the three-month average of 90 per cent.
Stock futures rollovers stands at 94 per cent, higher than the average rollovers of last three series at 92 per cent. Most frontline names saw their roll cost hovering around 55 bps with average increase in roll cost across names being 2-3 bps, Nuvama said.
FPI, client positionings Nuvama said FIIs have significantly added index shorts while they added went long on stock futures. In the case of index, their net shorts stood at 1,69,000 contracts against 1,38,000 short contracts at the start of August series. In the single stock futures, their net longs stood at 13,45,000 contracts against 13,39,000 net Long contracts (at start of August series.
The Client category (HNI & Retail) added longs in index while adding SSF longs. In index, their net longs stood at 1,28,000 contracts against 1,04,000 long contracts at the start of August series. In the single stock futures, their net longs stood at 22,10,000 contracts against 21,79,000 net long contracts at start of August series.
Key events to watch in Sept series IIFL Securities said the focus will shift to India’s GST committee meet. Also the GDP print will be closely monitored. The advent of festive season in the latter half of expiry may also have a bearing on sentiment, it said.
"Street will also follow the developments around India US tariff pact. US labour and inflation data for gauging clarity on soft-landing narrative and Fed’s policy path (with markets expecting a 25bps cut)," it said.
Where is stock market headed? Nuvama noted that September has historically been a softer month for Indian equities, with the Nifty closing lower in nearly 60 per cent of instances over the past decade, delivering average returns of 0.4 per cent. Nifty Bank has also displayed choppiness, with outcomes broadly balanced and negative returns of 1.2 per cent.
"The current setup suggests caution, with markets likely to remain range-bound, offering opportunities to both bulls and bears. In the near term, we expect Nifty to encounter resistance around 25,050, while 24,150 will act as a crucial support zone. Overall, while we don’t foresee significant downside pressure after weakness till 24,200, heightened volatility could make trading tricky for both sides," Nuvama said,
If Nifty first approaches the 24,200 zone, it could offer an attractive entry for bullish bets, with a protective stop loss of about 200 points, Nuvama said,
"Given the current market conditions we expect Nifty to face resistance near the 24,900 mark, while 24,200 will remain a key support level to watch," it said.