'Gateway to India’s trade': Buy Adani Ports shares for 19% upside, says Antique
Adani Ports: Antique said APSEZ’s leadership in the high-margin, cash-generating port business, combined with a comfortable balance sheet, created a wide economic moat.
- Nov 25, 2025,
- Updated Nov 25, 2025 8:42 AM IST
Antique Stock Broking on Tuesday initiated coverage on Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ), describing it as the “gateway to India’s trade” and valuing the stock at a target price of Rs 1,773 with a 'Buy' rating. The target price hinted at a 19 per cent potential upside on the Adani group stock over the prevailing stock price.
The brokerage said APSEZ had evolved from a single-port operator into India’s largest integrated transport utility, leveraging a network of 15 domestic and four international ports and terminals, 12 multimodal logistics parks, extensive rail and road assets, warehousing facilities, and harbour and marine services. This integrated network, it noted, positioned the company as a critical enabler of India’s trade flows, manufacturing ambitions and the “Make in India” programme.
Antique said APSEZ’s leadership in the high-margin, cash-generating port business, combined with a comfortable balance sheet, created a wide economic moat and left the company well placed to benefit from rising EXIM trade. It cited APSEZ’s diversified waterfront and hinterland assets, the fully integrated “port-to-customer-gate” model, long-standing marquee clients and the company’s increasing use of technology and AI to drive efficiency.
Government initiatives such as the National Logistics Policy and the Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 are viewed as structural tailwinds that should support the next phase of growth.
The brokerage added that improving cargo mix and utilisation should reinforce margins and strengthen returns, warranting a valuation premium to its historical average.
Between FY17 and FY25, APSEZ’s domestic port cargo volumes grew at 12.4 per cent CAGR, far ahead of the all-India growth rate of about 4.3 per cent, lifting its domestic market share from 14.9 per cent to 27.0 per cent. With domestic capacity of 633 MMT across the east, west and south coasts and international capacity of 115 MMT, the company handled a record 450 MMT of cargo in FY25, delivering a consolidated Ebitda margin of 60.4 per cent.
Antique said APSEZ’s diversified cargo handling insulated it from trade volatility and that 56 per cent of the FY25 volume comprised sticky, recurring cargo. Management aimed to handle 505–515 MMT in FY26 and scale to 1,000 MMT by FY29.
The brokerage highlighted APSEZ’s transformation into an integrated transport utility through its logistics platform—spanning 132 rakes, nearly 1,000 owned trucks and more than 20,000 managed trucks, 3.1 million sq ft of warehousing, 12 multimodal logistics parks and 1.3 MMT of agri-silos. Control of marine services and logistics touchpoints, it said, enabled single-window delivery, faster cargo turnaround and stronger customer retention.
Despite a rapid expansion cycle, APSEZ’s net debt-to-Ebitda improved from 3.3 times in FY21 to 1.8 times at end-2QFY26, below management’s 2.5 times threshold. Environmental-clearance capacity across domestic ports stood at 1,560 MMT as of March 2025.
By FY29, the company planned to handle 1,000 MMT of port cargo, expand its logistics revenue five-fold, raise the rake count to 300, increase MMLPs to 20, scale agri-silos to 10 MMT, add 20 million sq ft of warehousing and lift its owned truck fleet to 5,000. It also aimed to triple its marine business by FY29 and guided for Rs 11,000–12,000 crore of capex in FY26.
Antique concluded that APSEZ’s scale, diversified portfolio, strong cash flows and balance-sheet strength positioned it for robust growth, estimating consolidated revenue, Ebitda and PAT to grow at CAGRs of 15.3 per cent, 14.0 per cent and 16.1 per cent, respectively, through FY28.
Antique Stock Broking on Tuesday initiated coverage on Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ), describing it as the “gateway to India’s trade” and valuing the stock at a target price of Rs 1,773 with a 'Buy' rating. The target price hinted at a 19 per cent potential upside on the Adani group stock over the prevailing stock price.
The brokerage said APSEZ had evolved from a single-port operator into India’s largest integrated transport utility, leveraging a network of 15 domestic and four international ports and terminals, 12 multimodal logistics parks, extensive rail and road assets, warehousing facilities, and harbour and marine services. This integrated network, it noted, positioned the company as a critical enabler of India’s trade flows, manufacturing ambitions and the “Make in India” programme.
Antique said APSEZ’s leadership in the high-margin, cash-generating port business, combined with a comfortable balance sheet, created a wide economic moat and left the company well placed to benefit from rising EXIM trade. It cited APSEZ’s diversified waterfront and hinterland assets, the fully integrated “port-to-customer-gate” model, long-standing marquee clients and the company’s increasing use of technology and AI to drive efficiency.
Government initiatives such as the National Logistics Policy and the Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 are viewed as structural tailwinds that should support the next phase of growth.
The brokerage added that improving cargo mix and utilisation should reinforce margins and strengthen returns, warranting a valuation premium to its historical average.
Between FY17 and FY25, APSEZ’s domestic port cargo volumes grew at 12.4 per cent CAGR, far ahead of the all-India growth rate of about 4.3 per cent, lifting its domestic market share from 14.9 per cent to 27.0 per cent. With domestic capacity of 633 MMT across the east, west and south coasts and international capacity of 115 MMT, the company handled a record 450 MMT of cargo in FY25, delivering a consolidated Ebitda margin of 60.4 per cent.
Antique said APSEZ’s diversified cargo handling insulated it from trade volatility and that 56 per cent of the FY25 volume comprised sticky, recurring cargo. Management aimed to handle 505–515 MMT in FY26 and scale to 1,000 MMT by FY29.
The brokerage highlighted APSEZ’s transformation into an integrated transport utility through its logistics platform—spanning 132 rakes, nearly 1,000 owned trucks and more than 20,000 managed trucks, 3.1 million sq ft of warehousing, 12 multimodal logistics parks and 1.3 MMT of agri-silos. Control of marine services and logistics touchpoints, it said, enabled single-window delivery, faster cargo turnaround and stronger customer retention.
Despite a rapid expansion cycle, APSEZ’s net debt-to-Ebitda improved from 3.3 times in FY21 to 1.8 times at end-2QFY26, below management’s 2.5 times threshold. Environmental-clearance capacity across domestic ports stood at 1,560 MMT as of March 2025.
By FY29, the company planned to handle 1,000 MMT of port cargo, expand its logistics revenue five-fold, raise the rake count to 300, increase MMLPs to 20, scale agri-silos to 10 MMT, add 20 million sq ft of warehousing and lift its owned truck fleet to 5,000. It also aimed to triple its marine business by FY29 and guided for Rs 11,000–12,000 crore of capex in FY26.
Antique concluded that APSEZ’s scale, diversified portfolio, strong cash flows and balance-sheet strength positioned it for robust growth, estimating consolidated revenue, Ebitda and PAT to grow at CAGRs of 15.3 per cent, 14.0 per cent and 16.1 per cent, respectively, through FY28.