GMDC shares up 6%, but this brokerage sees 60% downside potential
GMDC: For Q3 FY26, the state-owned company posted a net profit of Rs 133.06 crore, down 9.89 per cent from Rs 147.66 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Revenue from operations fell 11.37 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 579.15 crore from Rs 653.42 crore in Q3 FY25.
- Feb 18, 2026,
- Updated Feb 18, 2026 4:41 PM IST
Shares of Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd (GMDC) climbed 6.43 per cent on Wednesday to settle at Rs 576.80, pausing their six-session losing run.
For Q3 FY26, the state-owned company posted a net profit of Rs 133.06 crore, down 9.89 per cent from Rs 147.66 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Revenue from operations fell 11.37 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 579.15 crore from Rs 653.42 crore in Q3 FY25.
Nuvama Institutional Equities said: "GMDC posted better-than-estimated EBITDA of Rs 103.1 crore in Q3 FY26 (our estimate: Rs 86.3 crore), up 11 per cent YoY due to lower-than-expected lignite CoP (cost of production). Though the 250MW thermal power plant has been restarted, higher initial operating cost kept power segment in losses. The thermal power plant is likely to revert to profits in FY27. Higher volume from Bhavnagar mine and expectation of opening of Lakhpat mine to drive ~26 per cent YoY volume growth in FY27. Baitarni coal block is likely to start producing FY27E onwards. We are cutting FY26E EBITDA by 13 per cent to factor in higher CoP, keeping FY27E/28E EBITDA unchanged. Maintain 'REDUCE' with a TP (target price) of Rs 231, at 6x FY28E EV/EBITDA. At CMP, the stock trades at 19.3x/15.1x FY27E/28E EV/EBITDA."
The brokerage's 12-month target price of Rs 231 implies a potential downside of 59.95 per cent from Wednesday's closing price of Rs 576.80.
Meanwhile, Kranthi Bathini, Equity Strategist at WealthMills Securities, said, "The stock is currently in a momentum zone. Investors may consider adopting a 'buy-on-dips' and 'sell-on-rallies' strategy with a medium- to short-term perspective."
GMDC is a state-owned enterprise and one of India's leading companies engaged in the mining of minerals and lignite. The company is headquartered in Ahmedabad, Gujarat.
Shares of Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd (GMDC) climbed 6.43 per cent on Wednesday to settle at Rs 576.80, pausing their six-session losing run.
For Q3 FY26, the state-owned company posted a net profit of Rs 133.06 crore, down 9.89 per cent from Rs 147.66 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. Revenue from operations fell 11.37 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 579.15 crore from Rs 653.42 crore in Q3 FY25.
Nuvama Institutional Equities said: "GMDC posted better-than-estimated EBITDA of Rs 103.1 crore in Q3 FY26 (our estimate: Rs 86.3 crore), up 11 per cent YoY due to lower-than-expected lignite CoP (cost of production). Though the 250MW thermal power plant has been restarted, higher initial operating cost kept power segment in losses. The thermal power plant is likely to revert to profits in FY27. Higher volume from Bhavnagar mine and expectation of opening of Lakhpat mine to drive ~26 per cent YoY volume growth in FY27. Baitarni coal block is likely to start producing FY27E onwards. We are cutting FY26E EBITDA by 13 per cent to factor in higher CoP, keeping FY27E/28E EBITDA unchanged. Maintain 'REDUCE' with a TP (target price) of Rs 231, at 6x FY28E EV/EBITDA. At CMP, the stock trades at 19.3x/15.1x FY27E/28E EV/EBITDA."
The brokerage's 12-month target price of Rs 231 implies a potential downside of 59.95 per cent from Wednesday's closing price of Rs 576.80.
Meanwhile, Kranthi Bathini, Equity Strategist at WealthMills Securities, said, "The stock is currently in a momentum zone. Investors may consider adopting a 'buy-on-dips' and 'sell-on-rallies' strategy with a medium- to short-term perspective."
GMDC is a state-owned enterprise and one of India's leading companies engaged in the mining of minerals and lignite. The company is headquartered in Ahmedabad, Gujarat.