HAL shares tank 9% after Tejas crash in Dubai; check reason, target prices, ratings & more

HAL share price: Shares of Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) cracked nearly 9 per cent at the opening tick on Monday after a Tejas fighter jet crashed during a performance during the Dubai Air Show 2025 on Friday near Al Maktoum International Airport, resulting in the death of its pilot.

At the opening tick on Monday, shares of Hindustan Aeronautics crashed 8.48 per cent to Rs 4205.25 on BSE, with its market capitalization slipping to Rs 2.81 lakh crore. The stock has corrected nearly 19 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 5,166, hit in May 2025. The stock has tanked nearly 15 per cent in the last 10 days.

According to initial experts’ assessment, the mishap was caused by a Negative-G manoeuvre. However, a court of inquiry by the Indian Air Force (IAF) has been constituted to determine the exact cause of the accident. While the incident is unfortunate, it is important to understand the broader context and risk profile associated with this high-performance fighter aircraft

Accidents during training or high-performance demonstration flights remain an inherent operational risk in military aviation, said Choice Broking, which believes that this incident does not indicate any structural issues with the Tejas programme. It recognises that sentiment around exports may see a temporary setback.

"Instead, we expect, HAL’s long-term fundamentals to remain robust, supported by strong execution, established order visibility and continued strategic importance to India’s defence modernisation plans. We think the near-to-medium-term focus continues to be on domestic deliveries — particularly the ongoing production ramp-up for Tejas Mk1A," it added.

"By the time export engagements scale up meaningfully, we expect the current situation to normalise and investor concerns to subside. Overall, we expect short-term volatility, but believe the broader programme remains firmly on track and aligned with India’s long-term defence capability goal. We maintain our 'buy' rating on HAL with a target price of Rs 5,570," Choice adds.

Hindustan Aeronautics reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,669.07 crore for the July-September quarter of FY26, rising 10.5 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. The state-run defence major's revenue from operations rose nearly 11 per cent YoY to Rs 6,628.61 crore in Q2FY26. Ebitda fell 5 per cent YoY to Rs 1,558 crore, while margin reduced 387 basis points to 23.5 per cent.

Notwithstanding the tragedy, a fighter aircraft crash is not uncommon, with more than seven such incidents reported in CY25 alone, with two involving the US fifth-generation F-35 jets. Several crashes of Russia and China aircraft also have taken place in the past decade. The US F-35 has seen 11 crashes to date in the past seven years despite being one of the most technologically advanced and considered among the world’s best fighter aircraft, said Elara Capital.

There may be sentimental impact for Hindustan Aeronautics but we do not expect any material financial impact on its orderbook, inflows, and execution of Tejas aircraft as the incident occurred at an air show rather than in mission mode," it added with a 'buy' rating and a target price of Rs 5,680 citing HAL as a the key player in aircraft manufacturing in India and is likely to remain a beneficiary of the burgeoning order pipeline with a long-term inflow visibility.