HDFC Bank shares among YES Securities' top 5 banking ideas; SBI not in the list; target prices 

YES Securities in its March quarter (Q4) banking preview note said that while it overwhelmingly preferred PSU banks at the top of its pecking order a year ago, four out of its top five present picks are from the private sector, with the pecking order being Bank of Baroda, HDFC Bank Ltd, Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd, Axis Bank Ltd and ICICI Bank Ltd.  

"We place HDFC Bank as high as number 2 in our pecking order for banks for the first time ever. We had upgraded HDFC to Buy after 3QFY26 results and had previously, placed it at number 5 but it now moves further up the pecking order. An year ago, but now,  We had recently initiated on BOM, which is at no. 6. SBI has crept back to number 7," it said. 

Target prices

The brokerage suggested a target of Rs 400 on BoB, Rs 1,135 on HDFC Bank, Rs 530 on Kotak Mahindra Bank and Rs 1,750 each on Axis Bank and ICICI Bank, suggesting 43-56 per cent potential upside. 

HDFC Bank Q4 results preview

The brokerage sees HDFC Bank reporting 5.8 per cent year-on-year (YoY) rise in Q4 net profit at Rs 18,640 crore on 5.5 per cent rise in net interest income (NII) at Rs 33,834 crore. It said sequential loan growth will be in the 3.5 per cent ballpark due to idiosyncratic growth trajectory. NII growth will be slightly higher than average loan growth due to rise in yield on advances outpacing cost of deposits. 

"Consequently, NIM will be slightly higher sequentially. Sequential fee income growth will be higher than loan growth. Opex growth would be lower than business growth. Slippages would be lower on sequential basis due to seasonality. Provisions will be lower on sequential basis," it said.

ICICI, Kotak, Axis Bank, BoB Q4 previews

For ICICI Bank, net profit is seen growing 3.2 per cent YoY to Rs 13,039 crore on 7.1 per cent rise in NII at Rs 22,698 crore. Kotak's profit is expected to grow 6 per cent to Rs 3,766.40 crore on 7.7 per cent rise in NII at Rs 7,845.20 crore. Axis Bank is seen reporting 5.3 per cent degrowth in profit at Rs 6739.80 crore on 7.1 per cent YoY rise in NII at Rs 14,790 crore. BoB is also seen reporting 1.7 per cent degrowth in profit at Rs 4962.10 crore despite a 7.8 per cent rise in NII at Rs 12,391 crore.   

NIM expansion, slippages 

For all banks under its coverage, barring IndusInd Bank Ltd, YES Bank expects marginal sequential net interest margin (NIM) expansion for the quarter, driven by continued repricing of term deposits, which it said should ease the overall cost of funds. 

"Fresh slippages in 4QFY26 are expected to be broadly stable sequentially across most of our coverage universe, as stress in the unsecured portfolio will continue to ease, while being offset by a moderate rise in stress in other areas," YES Securities said.